The Archive

IN THIS EDITION

Johnson treads carefully on Ukraine

A new wrinkle for the tax bill

How AI is transforming health care innovation

Cantwell pans House-passed TikTok bill

Emmer raised $7.2 million in first quarter of 2024

THE TOP

Johnson treads carefully on Ukraine

Happy Tuesday morning.

The House returns today from the two-week Easter recess. For Speaker Mike Johnson, he’s immediately facing huge questions over FISA, Ukraine and Israel, among other critical topics.

The Rules Committee will mark up a modified version of FISA reform legislation today ahead of an expected floor vote this week. There’s an April 19 expiration date for the critical Section 702 program, which covers how U.S. intelligence agencies conduct surveillance on foreign targets outside the country. So House leaders are rushing to get something done this week.

On Israel, House GOP leaders are pushing a resolution bashing President Joe Biden over his handling of relations with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during the now six-month-old war in Gaza.

But it’s new aid for Ukraine and what to do on that front where Johnson faces his biggest test — one that could cost him his job. He’s already under heavy pressure from hardline conservatives including Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), who spent Monday slamming the speaker.

We’re told that Johnson, at this point, isn’t likely to unveil his Ukraine aid proposal this week. The plan — which will include provisions such as the REPO Act to use seized Russian assets, as well as language overturning the Biden administration’s ban on new LNG export applications — isn’t ready to go yet. Johnson is expected to take the next several days to meet with colleagues on this issue.

Johnson could face a motion to vacate over Ukraine, so he and other House GOP leaders are proceeding gingerly — to say the least.

New normal for U.S.-Israel relations: This is a watershed moment for the Democratic Party when it comes to the U.S.-Israel relationship.

With a few outliers, Democrats seem largely comfortable with Biden’s more aggressive posture toward Netanyahu in the wake of an IDF airstrike that killed seven humanitarian aid relief workers last week. Top Democratic leaders, including senior White House officials, are also engaging more closely with members of Israel’s opposition parties. Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid met with Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chair Ben Cardin (D-Md.) on Monday, with more meetings to follow.

“For decades it was almost impermissible politically to have any objections to the way that one of our allies conducted itself,” Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii) told us. “But now this is more like a normal relationship, where the friendship underlies all of it. But friendship does not mean that we obey each other.”

Last week, after seven World Central Kitchen aid workers were killed in the Israeli strike, Biden explicitly threatened to change U.S. policy with respect to the Gaza war if Israel didn’t take “immediate” actions to protect aid workers and enable the flow of humanitarian assistance.

Following that call, Israel opened additional humanitarian aid corridors into Gaza, and the IDF fired two officers involved in the airstrike. Democrats said this was evidence that Biden’s new approach was working.

Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.), a close Biden ally, said Israel’s actions on humanitarian aid and a potential military operation in Rafah “are all going to matter” as Biden crafts U.S. policy moving forward.

Senate Armed Services Committee Chair Jack Reed (D-R.I.) took it a step further, saying that Netanyahu “should depart” from his post, as should Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, of course, has already called for new elections in Israel to replace Netanyahu.

The supplemental: The shift among Democrats raises questions about whether a bill that includes unconditional Israel funding could make it through both chambers of Congress today — even with Ukraine aid as the centerpiece.

“It’s fair, at some point, if we don’t see positive change, to make decisions on what kind of aid we’re providing and what [Israel] can use it for,” Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) said.

When the Senate passed the foreign aid bill in February, just three Senate Democrats voted against it. A lot has transpired in the last two months that raises serious doubts about whether Democrats would accept another Israel package without new restrictions.

When we asked Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) about that dynamic, he responded: “It’s important that the House passes the bill the Senate passed so we don’t have to worry about that.”

“We will continue to look at things as they come down to make sure that we hold Bibi accountable without tying Israel’s hands to be able to defend themselves,” added Tester, who faces a tough reelection campaign.

One more thing: The House Republican Steering Committee is meeting tonight to decide on a replacement for Rep. Kay Granger (R-Texas) as chair of the Appropriations Committee. Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.), who chairs Rules, is almost certain to be tapped for the Appropriations post.

This could force some changes at both Rules and Appropriations. Rep. Michael Burgess (R-Texas) is likely to take over Rules, with a new member added if Cole steps off the panel. We’ll have more for you tomorrow morning.

— Andrew Desiderio and John Bresnahan

Happening today at 9 a.m. ET: The Summit: The Future of Rural Health Care explores access to health care in rural communities.

The half-day event will feature a one-on-one interview with Sen. Tina Smith (D-Minn.), a panel conversation with health care industry leaders and a fireside chat about patient access to quality care. There’s still time to RSVP!

A new wrinkle for the tax bill

The Senate is back, and jockeying over the Wyden-Smith tax bill is ramping up with time running short for the package to gain traction.

Here’s a new wrinkle: Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.), who has said he’s “favorably disposed” toward the tax package, is now floating the idea of attaching it to his big-ticket bill reauthorizing a compensation program for radiation victims. RECA, as it’s known, got 69 votes in the Senate last month.

Hawley told us Monday night that he would vote for the tax bill with RECA attached. The Missouri Republican believes this could be the difference-maker for some of his GOP colleagues.

“At this point, combining the tax bill with RECA looks to be the only way to get this done,” Hawley said. “I know it will get my vote.”

RECA has been Hawley’s top legislative priority, so it makes sense for him to push for this.

But the big question, of course, is whether something like this could move enough Republicans to the “yes” column to give the tax bill 60 votes. There are several other GOP senators whose votes could be in play, but it’s important to remember that Democrats would probably need at least 10 Republicans here.

Of course, that would mean bucking both Senate Finance Committee ranking member Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. And some current tax bill backers voted against RECA, so the math could be tricky.

If enough Republicans join forces with Hawley here, that could theoretically push Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer to combine the two measures. But it would be up to Hawley to show that he has the requisite support among Senate Republicans for this.

Another reason why this is an interesting move by Hawley? Crapo is a big supporter of RECA, and his state stands to benefit significantly from the program.

It’s also worth noting that this latest push underscores how badly jammed up the Wyden-Smith bill is. Hawley had offered some public praise — in particular for the bill’s child tax credit expansion — so it’s notable that he’s making an explicit ask.

Pressure is on: Meanwhile, backers are looking to make a push for the tax bill this work period. Senate Finance Committee Chair Ron Wyden said there will be “a full-court press” over the next two weeks to get it passed.

Wyden added he’ll be talking about how the legislation would help people struggling right now, pointing to small businesses that need tax incentives in the bill and families benefiting from the child tax credit.

Sen. Todd Young (R-Ind.), a supporter, told us he plans to approach GOP colleagues who’ve signaled an openness to the bill to take their temperature on it post-recess. Young is a lead backer of the bill’s benefit for businesses’ research and development spending.

— Andrew Desiderio and Laura Weiss

THE AI IMPACT

How AI is transforming health care innovation

We’re launching the second installment in our series, The AI Impact, today examining the potential for artificial intelligence to revolutionize health care. This series is presented by Google.

The possibilities for AI and health care innovation are endless. The technology can transform the way biomedical research is conducted, improve drug development, speed up clinical trials and more.

Congress, of course, is embracing AI and wants to craft legislation that boosts innovation in the field but also comes with necessary checks and balances.

However, as the health sector adopts the technology, lawmakers, the Biden administration and patient advocates are concerned about the nature of the data that make up AI systems. They want to ensure it is based on representative data that includes historically under-represented groups like women and people of color.

Our coverage of AI and health care is part of a wider two-month series exploring how technology is transforming the government, industry and the nonprofit world. Be sure to check out the full project.

Did you miss our segment on how AI is impacting cybersecurity? You can read it here.

— Elvina Nawaguna

TIKTOK

Cantwell pans House-passed TikTok bill

Senate Commerce Committee Chair Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.) gave her most detailed criticisms to date of the House’s bill forcing TikTok to divest from its Chinese parent company.

Speaking with reporters Monday night, Cantwell said the House measure, which got 352 votes, “could be better.”

In particular, Cantwell said she doesn’t think the House bill could stand up to legal scrutiny. And Cantwell raised concerns about the notion of having Congress, rather than the executive branch, determining what constitutes a threat that should be acted upon.

Cantwell has her own TikTok proposal, the GUARD Act, that would set up a process allowing the administration to make those decisions. She likened it to export controls, which are decided by the Commerce Department. Cantwell never got a Republican co-sponsor on her TikTok plan, however.

“If you’re doing something deleterious to U.S. citizens or the military, that was like a big bright line to put into statute. And guess what? Legal people think you can really uphold that in court,” Cantwell said of her approach.

Here’s more from Cantwell, outlining specifically what she thinks is wrong with the House’s bill:

Cantwell’s comments come as Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer is publicly noncommittal about the path forward. Cantwell’s remarks could also serve to dampen the prospects that the House-passed TikTok bill will make it to President Joe Biden’s desk. The legislation falls within the Commerce Committee’s jurisdiction.

On the opposite side is Senate Intelligence Committee Chair Mark Warner (D-Va.), who supports the House proposal and has spoken often about the national security threats stemming from the app. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell also backed the House TikTok bill Monday.

Cantwell said she’s scheduled to meet with both Schumer and Warner later this week.

— Andrew Desiderio and John Bresnahan

THE MONEY GAME

Emmer raised $7.2 million in first quarter of 2024

News: House Majority Whip Tom Emmer raised $7.2 million in the first quarter of 2024, a big uptick compared to his fundraising from the same period last year.

Emmer is emerging as a major fundraiser in the House GOP. The Minnesota Republican has raised $17.2 million since becoming majority whip. Emmer pulled in $1.3 million for the NRCC in the first quarter, bringing his total to $4.7 million for the party committee.

Emmer has raised $2.1 million for candidates and incumbents, including $1.1 million in the first quarter.

The NRCC got drubbed by the DCCC last quarter, so they need all the cash they can get.

– Jake Sherman

AND THERE’S MORE

Fundraising news: Democrat Sue Altman, who’s running to unseat vulnerable GOP Rep. Tom Kean (R-N.J.), raised $580,000 in the first quarter of 2024. Altman has $910,000 on hand. Kean is a first-term lawmaker who represents a district that voted for President Joe Biden in 2020.

Montana ad scoop: Last Best Place, a Democratic group aligned with Senate Majority PAC, is running a new TV spot hitting Republican Tim Sheehy as a “rich out-of-stater” trying to buy the state’s Senate seat. Sheehy is running against Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) in one of the top GOP pickup opportunities this cycle.

Democrats are also launching a corresponding website that pokes fun at Sheehy’s ranch. The aim: portray Sheehy as a wannabe rancher who wants to “play cowboy.”

Dems head to the White House: The Regional Leadership Council, the group of House Democrats tasked with helping implement President Joe Biden’s agenda, are meeting with top White House officials today. The Democrats, led by Rep. Steny Hoyer (D-Md.), will discuss the implementation events they held across the country over the last week.

The group will meet with Deputy Chief of Staff Natalie Quillian, Treasury Deputy Secretary Wally Adeyemo and Senior Adviser John Podesta.

— Max Cohen

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