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IN THIS EDITION

Leader Look for Summer 2024: The heat is on

How crypto spent its way into political power

Introducing the Readback!

Houchin discusses AI, Johnson and GOP majority prospects

NBA launching Kenya partnership

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Leader Look for Summer 2024: The heat is on

Happy Friday morning.

Welcome to the Memorial Day recess. With official Washington heading out of town — or to the 80th anniversary of D-Day in Normandy — we wanted to engage in a semi-frequent Punchbowl News tradition: our Leader Look. If you want to read about a social-media outburst by a backbencher, this isn’t it. We’re going to zoom in on the power dynamics that really matter.

Mike Johnson: Tomorrow is the seven-month anniversary of Johnson’s rise to speakership, and it’s been quite the ride. Johnson has weathered nearly every storm imaginable during the last few months. He helped pass a massive foreign aid bill — including $60 billion for Ukraine — and made it through a motion to vacate, albeit with Democratic help.

Johnson isn’t Sam Rayburn nor Nancy Pelosi, and no one is claiming he is. Being speaker isn’t an easy job to learn on the fly, but Johnson hasn’t had any major stumbles in recent weeks. Sure, Johnson went to stand behind Donald Trump at court in New York, a move that many in the GOP privately sneered at. Johnson also claimed to know “intuitively” that “a lot of illegals” are voting in federal elections. There’s no evidence for that claim, but it’s standard fare in Trump’s GOP.

Johnson has copied former Speaker Kevin McCarthy in that he’s tacked back to the right now after veering left. House Republicans have started work on the FY2025 spending bills and the farm bill, although these won’t be finished until after Election Day. That’s a huge advantage for Johnson; he can keep tacking to the right through Nov. 5.

Johnson also has put Democrats in a number of tough positions on Israel. To the delight of many Republicans, he led the charge on bringing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to Washington to address a joint meeting of Congress. Johnson made the announcement that Netanyahu was indeed coming to Capitol Hill at an Israeli embassy event Thursday evening.

Chuck Schumer: The summer before an election is usually a slow time in the Senate. But Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has a lot on his mind with Democrats’ control of the Senate in doubt next year.

Schumer has vowed to find a path for several different pieces of bipartisan legislation that the Senate has been unable to pass. Think railway safety, cannabis banking, kids’ online safety, the Affordable Connectivity Program, bank executive clawbacks, prescription drugs, AI regulations and so much more.

It’s not clear whether any of these can actually pass or whether Schumer will force “show” votes on any of them to put pressure on Republicans or otherwise help boost his most endangered members.

Schumer’s focus this summer will be doing everything he can to protect his most vulnerable incumbents. It’s still early, but most of them are running ahead of their GOP challengers — both in fundraising and the polls.

Johnson has put a lot of public pressure on Schumer to sign onto his invitation for Netanyahu to address a joint meeting of Congress. Schumer has said he’d join that invitation — and presumably he has with Johnson’s announcement Thursday evening — but several Democrats don’t think he should. This has become a contentious issue within the Senate Democratic Caucus. And when Netanyahu comes, Schumer will have to handle the situation gingerly.

Hakeem Jeffries: By all rights, House Democrats should be on the way to the majority in the fall. But the last two cycles have led to unpredictable outcomes for both parties, and the number of competitive House seats really in play is small. So it’ll be a no-holds-barred brawl until the end. House Democrats are way ahead on money, although President Joe Biden’s weakness in the polls is a problem.

Jeffries took a risk by urging Democrats to support Johnson in the face of Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s (R-Ga.) effort to oust the speaker. Jeffries won’t say what Democrats will do if Greene goes the MTV route again.

And we can’t talk about Jeffries without mentioning his caucus’ divide on Israel. He’s had to manage a caucus that’s deeply split on the ongoing war in Gaza. Jeffries has handled this issue deftly given the crosscurrents in the party.

Mitch McConnell: The Senate minority leader is dismissed as a “lame duck” GOP leader by conservative detractors, but Mitch McConnell and his massive political operation will play a big role in the party’s effort to win the Senate majority this fall.

Republicans have a very favorable Senate map and a stronger slate of candidates than in recent years. This is in part because the NRSC under Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.) decided to endorse candidates in GOP primaries. That’s a departure from the previous cycle which netted Trump-friendly candidates who couldn’t win a general election.

Senate Republicans also benefit from it being a presidential election year. Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin’s (W.Va.) retirement all but guarantees a GOP pickup in West Virginia, while Trump will help Republican challengers in Montana and Ohio.

After defeating the Trump-aligned wing on Ukraine aid this spring, McConnell is pedal-to-the-metal on his push to preserve Republicans’ traditional foreign policy doctrine. Just last week, McConnell called out conservatives for cozying up to Hungarian strongman Viktor Orbán.

— Jake Sherman, Andrew Desiderio and John Bresnahan

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How crypto spent its way into political power

A lot of ink has been spilled about the campaign ambitions of the crypto sector. Throughout that time, the strategy has been questionable, the money has been tremendous and the results have been ambiguous.

Is 2024 the cycle that begins to change? We think it’s too early to say. But there’s no question that this year has been different for crypto’s top political strategists. The past week in Congress was a clear sign that the sector’s political fortunes are experiencing a tectonic shift.

Will that translate to the campaign trail? Crypto leaders think it can as they focus on an approach that doesn’t fit neatly along partisan lines.

The money: A trio of crypto super PACs has amassed a war chest from industry leaders worth more than $80 million. That is a lot of cash for an industry that has existed for less than two decades.

But there’s a big difference between dumb money and smart money in campaigns. Crypto’s influence over the 2022 election was defined by tens of millions in bipartisan contributions from the now-disgraced founder of crypto exchange FTX, Sam Bankman-Fried.

The industry’s reputation cratered along with his. That’s part of what makes the crypto’s political turnaround in 2024 so remarkable.

The approach: Rather than unleashing an indiscriminate money cannon in 2024, affiliated crypto PACs including Fairshake, Defend American Jobs and Protect Progress have picked races that aren’t always high-profile.

Ryan Selkis, CEO and founder of the crypto analytics firm Messari, isn’t officially affiliated with those groups. But Selkis has emerged as a sort of unofficial spokesperson for the digital asset sector through his political and combative presence on social media, particularly X, formerly known as Twitter.

When we asked about his preferences in 2024, Selkis’ answer was a good distillation of the strategy we’ve seen from crypto PACs so far.

Low-profile challenger candidates who’ve received strong support from crypto PACs include Julie Johnson of Texas and Shomari Figures of Alabama, both Democrats who won competitive primaries this year. Johnson saw just under $1 million in support from Protect Progress, while Figures benefited from $1.8 million.

Other Democratic candidates in the mix include Baltimore County Executive Johnny Olszewski and Eugene Vindman, a retired United States Army infantry officer running in Virginia.

Democratic House members running for Senate are also making crypto-friendly noises. Reps. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.), Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) and Andy Kim (D-N.J.) all voted in favor of FIT this week.

Looking ahead: The Senate will likely be the real test of crypto’s might in 2024 as it sees if it can help pick off some Democratic incumbents in races that could determine control of the chamber.

The industry will almost certainly spend big in Ohio and Montana where Democratic incumbents and crypto skeptics Sens. Sherrod Brown and Jon Tester face difficult reelection contests.

Then there is the crypto industry’s white whale: Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.). She has two Republican candidates — both longshot challengers — with crypto ties competing to take her on in the general election.

For now, Warren isn’t too worried.

“I don’t know who, as a candidate for office, wants to stand up and defend North Korea financing half of their nuclear missile program with crypto,” Warren told us. “That’s just nuts. But if somebody wants to run on that, have at it.”

— Brendan Pedersen

COMING SOON

Introducing the Readback!

We have exciting news to share: This summer, we’re launching The Readback, a free weekend digest featuring our top stories you may have missed and what our team is watching, reading and listening to each week.

You’ll go beyond the bylines, with our reporters detailing firsthand how their stories came together and why. We’ll include behind-the-scenes details you won’t read anywhere else, notable quotes and anecdotes that didn’t make it in and much more.

Expect the first edition to hit your inbox on June 1, with a new one each Saturday. We welcome your feedback (reach out at readback@punchbowl.news) and can’t wait to share the first edition with you next week!

— Heather Caygle

PUNCHBOWL NEWS EVENTS

Houchin discusses AI, Johnson and GOP majority prospects

Rep. Erin Houchin (R-Ind.) joined us for a conversation Thursday where she discussed her views on artificial intelligence and other pressing issues of the day.

Houchin said she’d support Speaker Mike Johnson if he wanted to remain GOP leader next year. Houchin also said she was confident Republicans would hold onto their majority and expand their ranks.

On AI, Houchin said she was optimistic Republicans and Democrats would work together to come up with an appropriate regulatory framework.

The conversation was part of our continuing coverage of AI and its impact.

In case you missed the event, you can watch the full recording here.

— Elvina Nawaguna

WASHINGTON X THE WORLD

NBA launching Kenya partnership

We’ve closely covered Kenyan President William Ruto’s visit to the United States. While Speaker Mike Johnson decided not to invite Ruto to address Congress in a joint meeting, President Joe Biden hosted Ruto at the White House Thursday night for a state dinner.

Some news on that front: NBA Commissioner Adam Silver is launching a youth basketball partnership with Kenyan telecom giant Safaricom. Silver was at the White House Thursday night. The NBA Africa project will open coaching clinics and camps in Kenya that aims to reach 10,000 players.

— Max Cohen

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