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THE TOP

Happy Friday morning.
Even as the speculation over his future intensifies, Speaker Kevin McCarthy got a slight reprieve on Thursday night. Whether that good vibe will last through today, with a House GOP-caused government shutdown less than 48 hours away, remains to be seen.
After battling among themselves for weeks, House Republicans passed three GOP-drafted FY2024 spending bills covering key parts of the federal government — Defense, Homeland Security and State-Foreign Operations. A fourth spending bill, Agriculture, went down in a widely expected defeat.
Two Democrats — Reps. Jared Golden (Maine) and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (Wash.) — crossed the aisle to vote with Republicans on two of the spending bills, Defense and Homeland Security.
Overall, House Republicans have now passed four FY2024 spending bills — the three from last night plus the MilCon-VA bill in July.
McCarthy hailed the House vote as proof that his “regular order” approach — demanded by the right wing in the House GOP Conference — is working, even as the government is about to shut down.
McCarthy has a news conference today at 10 a.m. He’ll say on repeat that House Republicans have passed four spending bills and the Senate none. Not sure that matters with the government about to shut down and the Senate moving a stopgap funding measure, but alas.
The wins on the floor — a product of weeks of lobbying, cajoling, and some embarrassing public setbacks — also capped another bizarre day for the speaker.
McCarthy kicked off Thursday by clashing with his most vocal GOP critic, Rep. Matt Gaetz (Fla.), in front of a room full of House Republicans. And he ended it 12 hours later with celebrations by GOP lawmakers on the floor as if they’d just won a bowl game.
Yet none of this will really make a difference. The House GOP version of these annual spending bills include tens of billions of dollars in spending cuts that aren’t acceptable to the Senate nor President Joe Biden.
They’re also full of “culture war” provisions sought by hardline Republican conservatives that are opposed by the Senate and White House.
OK, so what happens next?
The House will vote today on the Republicans’ short-term CR proposal. The Rules Committee will meet at 8 a.m. to mark up the rule for that bill.
This House stopgap funding bill, drafted by Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.), would keep federal agencies open for only 30 days — less than the 47 days the Senate is considering.
Rules Committee Republicans will amend it to mandate spending at a $1.47 trillion annual clip, far lower than what the Senate or White House will sign off on, while protecting the Pentagon, Homeland Security and VA from any cuts. That means social programs get mauled.
It also includes big chunks of H.R. 2, a tough border security bill that’s been rejected by Democrats as a non-starter. A McCarthy-favored fiscal commission will be added, too.
The House GOP leadership is skeptical that they can pass this rule, due to conservative opposition, which would be a massive blow to McCarthy. If the GOP leadership is unable to even force a floor vote on its own stopgap proposal — with no Ukraine money and strong border control provisions — they’ll have no leverage against the Senate, which is moving a bipartisan CR.
Obviously, McCarthy is planning to keep the House in session over the weekend as the funding deadline nears.
But let’s be clear here — The federal government is going to shut down. We don’t see any way around it. The only questions are for how long, and how will it end?
McCarthy will likely immediately try to jump-start negotiations with the other Big Four leaders and the White House. But the speaker is on an island here. McCarthy’s House Republican Conference will have single-handedly caused this shutdown. The California Republican is going to have to figure out how to pass something to get out of it.
House Republicans also plan to bring up other spending bills next week, after the shutdown has started. Energy and Water and the Interior bills are on the list.
Meanwhile, Leigh Ann Caldwell and Marianna Sotomayor of the Washington Post reported last night that conservatives will try to push McCarthy out of the speakership next week. Gaetz could offer a motion to vacate as early as Sunday. House Majority Whip Tom Emmer was floated as a McCarthy successor. Emmer says he doesn’t want the job.
Olivia Beavers and Jordain Carney of Politico report that conservatives are searching for a possible McCarthy replacement but no clear alternative has emerged. Juliegrace Brufke of Axios has her own version of the “Conservatives seeking McCarthy replacement” story, too.
Three makes a definite trend. It’s clear McCarthy’s conservative detractors are trying to shift the debate from “Should we oust McCarthy?” to “Who can take over the job?”
But if history is a guide, these situations are far more unpredictable than the plotters realize. Just look at 1998 or 2015 for proof of that.
We see an effort to boot McCarthy as a distinct possibility — either next week or shortly thereafter. The shutdown will determine whether this happens and when. And remember: Democrats have a big role here. They can vote to table a motion to vacate, which would sideline the process.
— Jake Sherman and John Bresnahan
Join us next week on Thursday, Oct. 5 at 9 a.m. ET for a conversation with Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.). Punchbowl News Managing Editor Heather Caygle and Capito will discuss measures to address the opioid crisis. RSVP here!
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THE SENATE
GOP border security talks hang over Senate CR prospects
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer is plowing full-steam ahead on a bipartisan bill that funds the government for 47 days with billions of dollars in new cash for Ukraine and disaster relief.
But the measure’s fate could come down to whether the Senate can clinch a deal on a border security amendment being crafted by Republicans and Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.).
Republicans have yet to signal whether they’ll give Democrats the 60 votes necessary to advance the continuing resolution absent a deal on a border-related amendment. We expect they will, but it’s worth watching.
Senators involved in the talks emphasized they’re still in the early stages of trying to craft a proposal. Crucially, they aren’t yet sure what could pass the Senate — and at what threshold — while also satisfying conservatives in the House.
“We’re trying to figure out a way to grow the vote to avoid a shutdown, but also to have real teeth in border and immigration reform that is credible and could potentially get done,” said Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), who’s involved in the talks around a border-security amendment.
But no Democrats are involved in those negotiations, and the group is still trying to enact border policy changes in a way that wouldn’t require 60 votes — a difficult task. If successful, Republicans see the effort as a big positive.
“If we add border [provisions], the prospects for passage both in the Senate and the House improve,” Senate Minority Whip John Thune, who’s leading the talks, told us. “Everybody knows we’re up against a deadline, and I think that’s intensifying an effort to try and come together behind a proposal.”
Importantly, the effort has Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s blessing, though he’s not directly involved. They’re also talking with their House GOP counterparts, according to Thune, but he wouldn’t go into more detail.
GOP senators tell us they’re not looking to just throw money at DHS and ICE. They want policy changes, too. The challenge is that policy changes would require 60 votes — a tough hurdle on this issue in particular — whereas funding additions would only require a simple majority. It could also end up helping red-state Democrats in the end.
“A 60-vote threshold gives Democrats who are in-cycle in 2024 a chance to vote yes, knowing that this won’t become law, and then they can claim they’ve done something about the border which they have not,” Cornyn lamented.
Sources involved in the talks told us Thursday night that they’re exploring parliamentary maneuvers to implement policy changes without requiring 60 votes.
But that might not even matter. Speaker Kevin McCarthy and House Republicans aren’t prepared to accept new Ukraine funding as outlined in the Senate bill, and some House conservatives are already dismissing the Senate’s border efforts as weak. Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio), who’s aligned with conservative hardliners in the House, told us it’s like “putting lipstick on a pig.”
“I admire what my colleagues are trying to do in ensuring that conservatives get something meaningful out of this CR. But we need to accept reality,” Vance said. “A clean CR with Ukraine funding is DOA in the House, whatever else you attach to it.”
For now, Senate leaders are adamant that the $6 billion in new Ukraine funding will remain in the bill. That’s causing Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) to drag out the process by withholding his consent for an agreement to speed up consideration of the CR.
Absent a time agreement, it would take the Senate until Monday to pass the CR — more than a day after the government shuts down.
— Andrew Desiderio
2024 WATCH
Moore, Carl prep for potential Alabama primary showdown
Alabama GOP Reps. Barry Moore and Jerry Carl are potentially facing a member-on-member primary next year, thanks to redistricting. The good news for them is they’ve been preparing for this for a while.
The Supreme Court rejected another congressional map drawn by Alabama Republicans this week on the grounds that it dilutes the power of Black voters. Now the Alabama map is being redrawn in a way that gives Democrats a shot at a second seat, but it could end up with Carl and Moore in the same district.
We caught up with the two sitting Alabama members on what they think about possibly running against each other.
“Barry is different from Jerry and Jerry is different from Barry,” Carl told us. “We’ll run our race and see what the people want… No one wants this type of race, specifically member-on-member. I’m sure the Alabama Democratic Party is loving it.”
For context, Carl re-upped his intent to run for reelection in Alabama’s 1st District this week.
Moore told us he was leaning toward running for reelection, telling us he “plans to serve as long as possible.” Moore, who represents Alabama’s 2nd District, will likely be the most impacted by the redrawn maps.
“We’re friends,” Moore said, referring to Carl. “We came in at the same time. We’re classmates, so we’ve worked well together. It’s unfortunate that this happened, but we’ll just continue to be friends regardless.”
Rep. Terri Sewell (D-Ala.), the sole Democrat in the Alabama delegation, celebrated the Supreme Court’s decision. Sewell said in a tweet that the court’s ruling was a “big win” for the state’s Black voters.
Former Attorney General Eric Holder, who chairs the National Democratic Redistricting Committee, accused Republicans of using “shameful, odious efforts” to try and diminish the Black vote in Alabama.
Meanwhile, GOP lawmakers condemned the ruling.
Rep. Gary Palmer (R-Ala.) said dividing congressional districts based on race was a form of “segregation.”
“We’re in a really bad place in this country in terms of division,” Palmer told us. “I think this makes it worse.”
— Mica Soellner

Comer subpoenas Hunter and James Biden docs after underwhelming hearing
After a largely underwhelming impeachment inquiry hearing Thursday, House Oversight Committee Chair James Comer (R-Ky.) announced long-anticipated subpoenas targeting the son and brother of President Joe Biden.
Comer is requesting the personal bank records and business bank records of Hunter and James Biden. The two are key figures in the House GOP effort to connect Joe Biden to his family members’ foreign business dealings. Here are the subpoenas, which have an Oct. 12 deadline for banks to hand over the documents to Republican investigators.
It’s a major step that brings Comer closer to an eventual goal of battling the White House for Joe Biden’s bank records and personal information. Republicans have so far failed to establish any wrongdoing by Joe Biden, or any direct financial link between the president and his family’s dealings.
The subpoenas followed a lackluster first hearing where one of the GOP’s top witnesses — Professor Jonathan Turley — made an assertion that was squarely at odds with Comer.
“I do not believe that the current evidence would support articles of impeachment,” Turley told the panel. Comer has notably said he is willing to vote to impeach Biden now.
To be fair, Turley did add he thinks an impeachment inquiry was necessary to further investigate “whether President Joe Biden was directly involved or benefited from the corrupt practices of his son, Hunter, and others.”
But in an ideal world, Republicans wouldn’t want their prime witness to publicly contradict the chair of the panel. There were elements in House Republican leadership that saw this hearing as a disaster.
“I like being in the same company as Jonathan Turley,” Rep. Ken Buck (R-Colo.) — an impeachment skeptic — told us. “I don’t think the evidence is there at this point.”
“I think we can all agree we’re not at impeachment level yet,” Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) added. Bacon has also warned his GOP colleagues against moving ahead with Biden’s impeachment.
Another struggle the panel faced was summed up by Rep. William Timmons (R-S.C.), who remarked during the hearing that “this scheme is complicated.” If it’s difficult for members — who investigate this for a living — to follow the threads of the allegations, imagine what a viewer tuning in for the first time would have made of the hearing.
— Max Cohen
THE CAMPAIGN
News: The Congressional Hispanic Caucus BOLD PAC is endorsing former Rep. Gil Cisneros (D-Calif.) in California’s 31st District and Maryland state Del. Joe Vogel in Maryland’s 6th District.
Cisneros is seeking to replace retiring Rep. Grace Napolitano (D-Calif.). Vogel is running to fill the vacancy that will be created by Rep. David Trone’s (D-Md.) Senate run.
— Max Cohen
MOMENTS
8:30 a.m.: Personal consumption expenditures price index data for August will be released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
9 a.m.: President Joe Biden will get his intelligence briefing.
10 a.m.: Speaker Kevin McCarthy will hold a media availability in the Rayburn Room.
10:30 a.m.: Biden delivers remarks at a tribute for Gen. Mark Milley, the outgoing chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and participates in an Armed Forces Hail in honor of Gen. C.Q. Brown, the incoming chair of the Joint Chiefs at Joint Base Myer-Henderson Hall in Arlington, Va. Vice President Kamala Harris and Second Gentleman Doug Emhoff will attend.
12:30 p.m.: Karine Jean-Pierre will brief with OMB Director Shalanda Young.
CLIP FILE
CNN
→ | “Menendez plans Puerto Rico donor retreat amid Democratic fears over his reelection plans,” by Manu Raju |
NYT
→ | “Republican Group Running Anti-Trump Ads Finds Little Is Working,” by Jonathan Swan |
→ | “Top Biden Aides Questioned in Inquiry Into Handling of Documents,” by Glenn Thrush |
Bloomberg
→ | “Biden’s $100 Billion Chip Bet Caught Up in Arizona Union Showdown,” by Mackenzie Hawkins |
WSJ
→ | “U.S., China Talks Gain Momentum, Paving Way for Xi-Biden Summit,” by Lingling Wei, Charles Hutzler and Andrew Duehren |
Editorial photos provided by Getty Images. Political ads courtesy of AdImpact.
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