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PRESENTED BY

BY JOHN BRESNAHAN, ANNA PALMER AND JAKE SHERMAN
WITH MAX COHEN AND CHRISTIAN HALL

THE TOP

Happy Wednesday morning. 

Today is going to be all about tactics and strategy for House and Senate Democratic leaders, and the White House. Senate Democrats are preparing a showdown over voting rights and the filibuster this weekend and possibly into Martin Luther King Jr. Day Monday.

Right now, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer doesn’t have the votes to win on voting rights or the filibuster, despite a fierce appeal from President Joe Biden on Tuesday. So the larger strategy being employed here – forcing votes that are likely to fail – is already in question. But we’ll get back to this and how it figures into the larger Democratic problems of the moment.

Now onto tactics. Schumer can call up the Freedom to Vote Act (supported by all 50 Senate Democrats) or the Senate version of the John Lewis Voting Rights Advancement Act (supported by all Senate Democrats besides Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia) or both. Both bills have been blocked by unyielding GOP opposition. Schumer can call for their reconsideration at any time. 

However, there’s another, more complex plan under consideration to provide an alternative way for Senate consideration. 

The House this week is supposed to take up an amendment to a bill dealing with NASA’s leasing “underutilized” property to private entities. The House and Senate have ping-ponged this bill back and forth already.

Under this new plan – which is still just under consideration, it hasn’t been agreed to yet – Speaker Nancy Pelosi and House Democrats would use this NASA bill as a shell, strip out the existing language and insert the Freedom to Vote Act instead. The House would then pass this revised bill and send it onto the Senate. Since it’s a “message” between the House and Senate, there’s no filibuster on the motion to proceed to the legislation. That means the Senate could take it up quickly. 

Senate Republicans will still filibuster the underlying bill and Schumer would have to file cloture in order to cut off debate and force a vote. That hasn’t changed. So, in sum, a GOP filibuster still has to be overcome, but there’s only one cloture vote, compared to two with a regular bill.

Yet the advantage of this proposed plan is that Schumer would be filing cloture on a voting rights bill that’s already been adopted by the House, instead of the Senate-only version of the legislation. Thus when Republicans filibuster the measure, they’d be blocking a bill that just needs Senate approval in order to head to the president’s desk. It’s a distinction with a difference.

Schumer is expected to unveil more on his next steps today, so let’s return to the strategy discussion. As we said, Schumer doesn’t have the votes to pass the Freedom to Vote Act – any version of it – due to a GOP opposition. And he can’t pass the John Lewis Voting Rights Advancement Act for the same reason. All 50 Senate Republicans will vote no.

More importantly, Schumer doesn’t have 50 Democratic votes to trigger the “nuclear option” to change Senate rules unilaterally and get rid of the filibuster. Manchin and Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) remain opposed to any such move.

Manchin will back some technical changes to the filibuster, although he won’t back getting rid of the 60-vote threshold to cut off debate on a bill.

“I’m not for breaking the filibuster, but I am for making the place work better by changing the rules,” Manchin told reporters on Tuesday, one of several statements he made laying out his continued opposition. 

For her part, Sinema met Tuesday night in the LBJ Room with a group of Senate Democrats from the Rules Committee. The group included Sens. Angus King (I-Maine), Tim Kaine (D-Va.), Jon Tester (D-Mont.), Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii), Ben Cardin (D-Md.), Maggie  Hassan (D-N.H.), and Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) to discuss potential rules changes.

As far as we can tell, however, Sinema’s position didn’t change following that session either. More meetings with Manchin and Sinema are likely today, Democratic insiders told us.

But if the voting rights-filibuster push fails, where does it leave Biden, Schumer, Pelosi and Democrats? 

Despite control of the House and Senate – by razor-thin margins, admittedly – and having Biden in the Oval Office, the key elements of the progressive agenda are stalled, which is causing growing unrest on the left. Just ask Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.).

→ The $1.7 trillion Build Back Better Act, the centerpiece of Biden’s agenda, could go down in flames because of the post-pandemic surge in inflation. (Note: The December inflation report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics will be released at 8:30 a.m., which could make the political environment even worse for Democrats.)

→ During the Omicron-fueled surge in Covid cases, huge lapses in testing capacity remain. Democrats are already talking about passing more relief for small businesses and restaurants, despite passage of the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan less than a year ago. 

→ Democrats can’t get anything done on gun control since that stalled out last year, despite a huge spike in gun violence. 

→ Guaranteed access to abortion – already restricted in Texas, the nation’s second most populous state – could be be struck down by the Supreme Court.

→ Democrats failed to raise the minimum wage.

→ Democrats have gotten very little done on climate change.

→ Democrats haven’t been nearly as aggressive as activists want on student loan debt thanks to Biden’s opposition.

→ Images of empty store shelves are popping up all over social media as supply chain problems – exacerbated by bad weather and the Omicron surge – continue to dog stores. 

This isn’t how a lot of Democrats pictured their full control of Washington.

BEHIND THE SCENES

How Thune got to yes

When Senate Minority Whip John Thune announced Saturday he’d run for another term, it was a big moment for Senate Republicans. Thune remains in the mix as a possible successor one day to Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.

But we found ourselves wondering: How close was Thune to retiring?

And here’s the answer: Pretty. Thune had two statements drafted, one announcing hs retirement and one announcing that he would run again. 

And over the Christmas recess, Thune was still vacillating over whether to launch a campaign for his fourth term in the Senate. 

One of the major hurdles, as others have reported, was his wife Kimberly’s hesitation to commit to another six year term. Thune lives in South Dakota and travels back and forth every weekend. He has five grandchildren at home, and family life remains a huge priority for him.

Thune was leaning against another run earlier in 2021, but after a barrage of phone calls from supporters in South Dakota and colleagues in D.C., both Thune and his wife began to shift toward yes. They got there fully by the time Thune announced last weekend, yet it was a serious debate over his own political future.

Of course, for Punchbowl News readers and Senate watchers, Thune’s reelection bid is pivotal. He’s the No. 2 Senate Republican and one of the three leading contenders McConnell whenever the Kentucky Republican calls it quits. That’s going to be several years from now anyway.

 → McCarthy’s haul: House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy raised $11.75 million from 47,000 donors in the fourth quarter of 2021. The top House Republican raised $72.4 million in 2021, which is an off-year record for House Republicans. McCarthy transferred $25.3 million to the National Republican Congressional Committee and doled out more than $10 million to the 57 most vulnerable GOP incumbents. 

→ The ad wars are heating up in Wisconsin. Just days after Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) announced he was running for reelection, both Johnson’s campaign and the Wisconsin Democratic Party are buying television ads statewide.

Johnson is the only Senate Republican incumbent running in a state won by President Joe Biden. As the most endangered Senate Republican, Johnson is hitting the airwaves early to get across his message of a country in crisis thanks to Democratic control.

In a minute-long ad, Johnsons runs through a laundry list of what he sees as disasters facing the United States: the border crisis; the Afghanistan withdrawal debacle; rising aggression from Russia, China and Iran; high inflation and a skyrocketing national debt. 

Images of President Joe Biden, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, Speaker Nancy Pelosi all flash across the screen with menacing music playing in the background.

“It feels like our country is being torn apart,” Johnson says. “If you’re in a position to help make our country safer and stronger, would you just walk away? I’ve decided I can’t. I’ll stand and fight for freedom. I’m Ron Johnson and I approve this message because I love America and Wisconsin, just like you.”

Here’s the ad, courtesy AdImpact.

Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers (D) also is facing a competitive gubernatorial election in November. The state’s Democratic Party is up with an ad bashing Evers’ potential Republican opponent Rebecca Kleefisch.

The ad ties the Republican’s “violent language” to the Jan. 6 insurrection in a bid to paint Kleefisch as a radical candidate. 

FRONTS

MOMENTS

10:20 a.m.: President Joe Biden will get his daily briefing.

10:30 a.m.: Former Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid’s casket will arrive at the Capitol.

11 a.m.: The Covid-19 response team will brief reporters. … The congressional leadership will participate in a ceremony for Reid. Vice President Kamala Harris will attend. 

12:45 p.m.: The Bidens will attend Ray Odierno’s funeral. The president will speak. 

1 p.m.: CBC Chair Joyce Beatty (D-Ohio) and members of the CBC will speak about voting rights.

3 p.m.: Jen Psaki will brief. 

4:45 p.m.: Reid’s casket will leave the Capitol. 

CLIP FILE

NYT

→ “Jan. 6 Panel Seeks to Debunk Unfounded Theory About F.B.I. Role in Riot,” by Luke Broadwater and Alan Feuer 

→ Tom Friedman: “Biden-Cheney 2024?”

→ News Analysis: “Putin’s Next Move on Ukraine Is a Mystery. Just the Way He Likes It,” by Anton Troianovski

→ On Washington: “Harry Reid: From Capitol Cop to Powerhouse Senate Majority Leader,” by Carl Hulse

WaPo

→ “Black activists say the time for pretty speeches is over. They need an action plan from Biden on voting rights.” by Emmanuel Felton and Cleve R. Wootson Jr.

→ “Democrat Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick wins House seat in Florida special election,” by Dave Weigel

WSJ

→ “Judges Uphold North Carolina’s GOP-Drawn Voting-District Maps,” by Alexa Corse and Brent Kendall

AP

→ “Omicron may be headed for a rapid drop in US and Britain,” by Maria Cheng and Carla K. Johnson

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Editorial photos provided by Getty Images