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PRESENTED BY

BY JOHN BRESNAHAN, ANNA PALMER AND JAKE SHERMAN
WITH MAX COHEN AND CHRISTIAN HALL

THE TOP

Happy Thursday morning.

Please pause for a moment and consider just how much political capital President Joe Biden and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer are spending right now on voting rights and scrapping the filibuster. Biden went to Atlanta on Tuesday to make a major speech on this, and now he’s coming to Capitol Hill today to lobby Democratic senators during a closed-door party meeting. 

Schumer’s office has been a bit like Grand Central Station at rush hour. Sens. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) have been cycling in and out of there – and other Capitol meeting spots – multiple times each day. The two moderate Democrats are listening to appeals from colleagues about why they should scrap the 60-vote threshold to cut off debate or allow a carveout for voting rights. Manchinema, however, have remained consistent: it won’t happen. 

Let’s leave aside for a second the substance of the voting rights bill. We all understand that it’s unlikely to pass, right? And there are plenty of Senate Democrats – and many on the House side too – that wonder why the White House is pressing so hard on this. And why is Schumer forcing vulnerable lawmakers to do away with the filibuster? The vast majority of Democratic senators are ready to scrap the 60-vote threshold – if they can win. They can’t right now. And worse than that, Senate Democrats don’t have a graceful way out this political jam. It’s a bit reminiscent of when Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said he wouldn’t lift the debt limit earlier this year. McConnell’s position was unsustainable and in the end, he had no choice left but to fold. 

And remember: The Quinnipiac Poll had Biden’s approval ratings at 33% Wednesday. This is an election year.

So the obvious question here is why are they doing this? Well, voting rights is a base priority. Manchin and Sinema are seemingly impervious to pressure on this topic. At some point, Schumer has to put up or shut up – get this bill on the floor and have the fight, or stop talking about it. He’s chosen the former. And don’t forget Schumer is up for re-election in November. 

So today’s main event for Senate Democrats is the lunch with Biden in the Kennedy Caucus Room in the Russell Office Building. After that, they’ll have some big decisions to make.

What now?

With all this in play, we thought it would be helpful if we lay out as clearly as possible what’s expected to happen on voting rights and the filibuster. So if you’re prepping for your morning call and looking to explain what will happen to an editor or a boss, this one is for you.

Today: Late Wednesday the House approved a rule covering the John Lewis Voting Rights Advancement Act and the Freedom to Vote Act. The vote was 220-202, split completely along party lines.

These two pieces of legislation were mashed together under the aegis of H.R. 5746, the NASA Enhanced Use Leasing Extension Act of 2021. That measure is expected to be approved today by the House.

Why is the House passing voting rights in a NASA bill? As we explained Wednesday morning, if this bill is sent over to the Senate as a “message,” it has certain privileges. Schumer can bring the bill to the floor for debate without facing a Republican filibuster on the motion to proceed.

Now let’s get back to our timeline. If the House passes this package today and sends it over to the Senate, Schumer can start the process immediately. The Senate can have a full day of debate lasting into Friday. Schumer would then file cloture to cut off debate Friday afternoon or evening. The intervening day would be Saturday – as required – and then a cloture vote would be Sunday. 

At that point, the Senate would be attempting to break the expected Republican filibuster at a 60-vote threshold. Democrats will be unable to get cloture. 

Then it will be crunch time for Schumer. If he decides on an attempt to alter the Senate rules via the “nuclear option” – a straight partisan vote – he would seek a ruling by the parliamentarian on whether the filibuster applies to voting-rights legislation. The parliamentarian would say yes, it does. There would be a bunch of Senate floor action at that point. Since Manchin and Sinema are against changing the rules with just Democratic votes and, furthermore, are against eliminating the 60-vote threshold, Schumer’s effort would fail. 

This is all very fluid and nothing is locked in yet. The Senate may not take up the bill until Friday, in which case everything would shift back one day later. On the off chance there’s some sort of time agreement to speed things up – we warn you, this probably will not happen – everything could unfold more quickly. Again, we doubt this. Could Manchin and Sinema change their mind? Anything could happen.

JAN. 6

McCarthy says ‘no’ to Jan. 6 panel, raising specter of subpoena

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy declared Wednesday night that he won’t voluntarily undergo an interview with the select committee investigating the Jan. 6 attacks. This now sets up a partisan showdown over the future of the panel’s investigation.

It’s the latest move in the still unfolding drama over the panel’s probe, one that may ultimately lead to a criminal referral against former President Donald Trump. We’re not there yet, and may never be. But the probe certainly looks to be headed in that direction, as Democrats hone in on McCarthy and other top Trump allies who spoke to the former president both before and during the insurrection.

While Republicans complain that the select committee is just a partisan witch hunt, it truly is in uncharted territory here by seeking this type of information from the House GOP’s top lawmaker.

Here’s McCarthy’s statement in response to the select committee’s request for an interview:

​​“This committee is not conducting a legitimate investigation as Speaker Pelosi took the unprecedented action of rejecting the Republican members I named to serve on the committee. It is not serving any legislative purpose. The committee’s only objective is to attempt to damage its political opponents – acting like the Democrat Congressional Campaign Committee one day and the DOJ the next. 

“The committee has demanded testimony from staffers who applied for First Amendment permits. It has subpoenaed the call records of private citizens and their financial records from banks while demanding secrecy not supported by law. It has lied about the contents of documents it has received. It has held individuals in contempt of Congress for exercising their Constitutional right to avail themselves of judicial proceedings. And now it wants to interview me about public statements that have been shared with the world, and private conversations not remotely related to the violence that unfolded at the Capitol. I have nothing else to add.

“As a representative and the leader of the minority party, it is with neither regret nor satisfaction that I have concluded to not participate with this select committee’s abuse of power that stains this institution today and will harm it going forward.”

The House authorized the select committee probe during a floor vote on June 30, passing a resolution providing the panel with subpoena power, so McCarthy’s opinions on the committee’s legitimacy are questionable at best.

However, we also acknowledge that Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s decision to reject McCarthy’s nominees to the panel was an unheard of breach of etiquette by party leaders, although within her authority. 

And subpoenaing the House GOP leader – a member who could very well be the next speaker a year from now – would truly be an extraordinary step. Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.) and McCarthy nemesis Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.), the chair and vice chair of the select committee, have set this drama in motion. But it will be the Democratic leadership, including Pelosi, who will ultimately make that call.

It’s fair to say that the Jan. 6 insurrection was an unprecedented event warranting an unprecedented response. Yet a subpoena for McCarthy could backfire on Democrats down the road. They will be setting a precedent that may come into play if Republicans are in charge of the House come 2023. McCarthy allies are already talking about payback.

And it may help McCarthy with his own members. Like his marathon speech opposing the Build Back Better Act, rank-and-file House Republicans will see their leader publicly clashing with Democrats. These days, that’s what matters in congressional politics. 

Reps. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) and Scott Perry (R-Pa.) have also declined to speak voluntarily with the Jan. 6 panel. They may face subpoenas too.

This is all very likely to end up in federal court, jeopardizing the deadline for completing the probe.

A reminder: McCarthy and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell quashed a bipartisan commission to investigate the attacks. Pelosi offered Republicans the power to veto any subpoenas that the commission would’ve issued. Senate Republicans filibustered the proposal.

SNEAK PEEK

‘Four Corners’ will meet today as budget talks pick up

The chairs and ranking members on the House and Senate Appropriations Committees – the “Four Corners” – will meet today in an attempt to break the logjam over the budget. 

This follows a session on Wednesday between Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, and Sens. Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.) and Richard Shelby (R-Ala.), chair and ranking member of the Senate Appropriations panel.

More than one-quarter of the way through the 2022 fiscal year, the two sides still haven’t agreed on a topline number for the annual spending bills. And then they have to work their way through numerous policy riders as they hash out individual measures.

Federal agencies are funded through Feb. 18 under a continuing resolution. And all the senior lawmakers on both sides insist they don’t want to pass a stopgap funding bill for the year.

So if they are going to strike a deal, appropriators will have to move fast. Which is why today’s session – the first time they’ve all sat down together in one room in months – is so important.

We’ll keep you updated on these developments in today’s Midday and PM editions.

FRONTS

MOMENTS

9:30 a.m.: President Joe Biden will get his daily intelligence briefing.

10:30 a.m.: Biden will speak about Covid-19. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell will also attend. 

10:45 a.m.: Speaker Nancy Pelosi will hold her weekly news conference

11:30 a.m.: House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy will hold his weekly news conference. 

1 p.m.: Biden will meet with Senate Democrats in the the Kennedy Caucus Room in Russell. 

3 p.m.: Jen Psaki and National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan will brief reporters.

CLIP FILE

NYT

→ “Lael Brainard will call inflation ‘too high’ at nomination hearing for Fed vice chair,” by Jeanna Smialek

→ Congressional Memo:  “The Mood in the Capitol Was Already Dark. Then Came Omicron.” by Jonathan Weisman

→ “Sorry, World: Famous Apologies by High-Profile Figures,” by Rick Gladstone

WaPo

→ “Democrats worry Biden could pay the political price for rising inflation,” by Matt Viser and Jeff Stein

→ “Omicron surge seems to be slowing in some East Coast cities,” by Andrew Jeong

AP

→ “Abortion grows as priority issue for Democrats: AP-NORC poll,” by Hannah Fingerhut

Politico

→ “​​Old-school senator no more: Biden goes all-in against the filibuster,” by Burgess Everett and Lauren Barron-Lopez

Roll Call

→ “Don’t rule out a GOP Senate wave,” by Stu Rothenberg

USA Today

→ “Exclusive: Biden sending medical teams to six states to help hospitals overwhelmed by COVID-19,” by Maureen Groppe and Donovan Slack

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Editorial photos provided by Getty Images