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PRESENTED BY

BY JOHN BRESNAHAN, ANNA PALMER AND JAKE SHERMAN
WITH MAX COHEN AND CHRISTIAN HALL 

THE TOP

Happy Wednesday morning, everyone.

In what’s becoming a seemingly daily occurrence, another House Democrat announced their retirement on Tuesday.

Rep. Brenda Lawrence (D-Mich.) became the 25th House Democrat to announce that she would forgo a re-election bid in November. Lawrence’s district is heavily Democratic, so Republicans won’t have a chance at picking up this seat.

Lawrence is the second veteran member of the Congressional Black Caucus just this week to announce their retirement, joining Rep. Bobby Rush (D-Ill.).

Overall, seven CBC members won’t return next year, which is a lot of turnover for a group that’s power comes in part from its members’ seniority. Several of these CBC members are seeking other offices, including Reps. Karen Bass (D-Calif.), Anthony Brown (D-Md.) and Val Demings (D-Fla.).

Only 11 Republicans have said they’re retiring at this point. So, advantage GOP.

This week is a wash for Senate Democrats. Can they avoid losing the month?

This week – the first week of 2022 – has turned into a dud for Senate Democrats. Snow kept the Senate out Monday and Tuesday. A bunch of Senate Republicans are going to Atlanta Thursday for the late GOP Sen. Johnny Isakson’s (Ga.) funeral. Thursday also happens to be the one-year anniversary of the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol. So that leaves just today for the Senate to be in session at full throttle. (A gentle reminder that, almost no matter what, the Senate is out on Fridays).

The question now for Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer is whether Democrats can salvage the month of January? Where’s a possible win on the horizon for the Democratic majority?

Next week will be all about voting rights, and then trying to dump or revise the filibuster when that effort fails due to overwhelming GOP opposition. The problem? Democrats keep proving that they can’t deliver on some of the “big, bold action” they’ve promised. And that’s a big problem heading into the midterm elections.

Let’s start with the filibuster. 

Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), one of the Democratic holdouts on getting rid of the filibuster, told reporters late Tuesday that he wants to keep the procedure intact with potentially some modest changes. He would change the threshold to overcome a legislative blockade from 60 votes to three-fifths of senators in the chamber during a cloture vote. It’s not clear what, if any, impact that would really have.

Manchin would also support eliminating the minority’s ability to filibuster the motion to proceed, which would, in theory, allow for more debate on legislation.

But even those minor tweaks to the Senate rules seem unlikely to actually occur because Manchin has said he won’t “go nuclear.” In other words, Manchin would force Senate Democrats to find 67 votes to change the rules, instead of just 51. That’s an impossibly heavy lift.

So let’s restate this: Even if Manchin is willing to go nuclear, the changes he’s advocating for are extremely modest.

And how about the Build Back Better Act? Well, as we now know, the Senate won’t even start working in earnest on President Joe Biden’s top legislative priority until after it finishes the voting rights debate and vote. So that means work won’t begin until the third week of January. 

And when it comes to the BBB, Manchin has essentially begged reporters to stop asking him about it. It’s over, he told us Tuesday. “I’m really not going to talk about Build Back Better anymore because I think I’ve been very clear on that,” Manchin said.

Manchin said he’s involved in no discussions about a potential deal and remains in the same place he was Dec. 19. That’s when the West Virginia Democrat told Bret Baier on Fox News that he was against the legislation. In fact, Manchin said, he’s having no conversations about resuscitating it and added that he would not be working on legislation that divides the American people. 

But get this: Schumer said Tuesday he had spoken to Manchin about the BBB and work was underway.

In other words, Manchin and Schumer can’t even decide whether they’re holding talks about the BBB or not. You can pretty much take it to the bank that nothing will pass anytime soon on Biden’s top legislative priority. 

So, no BBB for the time being. At absolute best, a small tweak of the Senate rules on the filibuster. No voting rights legislation. Where are Senate Democrats going to find a win this month? What do they have to look forward to?

PUNCHBOWL NEWS EVENTS

A conversation with Todd Young

New: We’re excited to announce our first editorial event of 2022! Anna will interview Sen. Todd Young (R-Ind.) during a virtual event about global competitiveness and the role of American businesses in the 21st century economy on Tuesday, Jan. 25 at 9:15 a.m. EST. RSVP here!

SNEAK PEEK

Wasserman: Redistricting is a “wash”

We’re big fans of the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter. Their analysis of House, Senate and gubernatorial races is second to none. So we jump at every opportunity to give Punchbowl News readers a sneak peek at their content. You should absolutely, positively subscribe to the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter – especially in an election year. 

Dave Wasserman, their House race ace, has a smart look at the landscape for the lower chamber which might surprise you given Republicans were expecting a huge boost from redistricting.

Here are some excerpts from the piece, “Still a GOP Advantage, but Redistricting Looks Like a Wash.”

The surprising good news for Democrats: on the current trajectory, there will be a few more Biden-won districts after redistricting than there are now — producing a congressional map slightly less biased in the GOP’s favor than the last decade’s. The bad news for Democrats: if President Biden’s approval ratings are still mired in the low-to-mid 40s in November, that won’t be enough to save their razor-thin House majority (currently 221 to 212 seats). … 

A Cook Political Report with Amy Walter analysis finds that in the completed states, Biden would have carried 161 of 293 districts over Donald Trump in 2020, an uptick from 157 of 292 districts in those states under the current lines (nationwide, Biden carried 224 of 435 seats). And if Democrats were to aggressively gerrymander New York or courts strike down GOP-drawn maps in North Carolina and/or Ohio, the outlook would get even better for Democrats.

However, the partisan distribution of seats before/after redistricting is only one way to gauge the process. Because Democrats currently possess the lion’s share of marginal seats, estimating the practical effect of new lines in 2022 still points towards a wash or a slight GOP gain. … 

What to Watch for in the Months Ahead 

It’s still too early to render a final verdict on redistricting. There are still 16 states that aren’t complete (or near-complete), not counting the handful of states with high-stakes litigation pending. Republicans could still target Democratic seats in Florida, Tennessee and New Hampshire, and far less likely in Kansas, Kentucky and Missouri. Democrats could offset all of that in New York. Here are the three biggest remaining variables to watch:

1. Will state courts strike down GOP maps in North Carolina, Ohio or elsewhere? … 2. How much will Florida’s anti-gerrymandering law constrain Republicans? … 3. How aggressively will Democrats attempt to gerrymander New York? … 

The 2022 House Landscape 

House Democrats’ math problem boils down to this: even though there will be more Biden-won seats than there are now, dozens will have only voted for him by narrow margins and will be very tenuous for Democrats if Biden’s approval rating is still languishing below 45 percent.

In 2018, Democrats didn’t flip a single GOP seat that had given President Trump more than 55 percent of the vote in 2016. But they still managed to gain 40 seats because Trump’s approval rating was at 42 percent. Today, there are 48 House Democrats sitting in seats where Biden took less than 55 percent in 2020, and that number is likely to remain in a similar range after redistricting. Republicans only need to gain five seats for the majority. … 

Democrats have modestly outpaced redistricting expectations, and the next decade’s House map is on pace to be slightly less biased towards the GOP than the last one’s. But the new maps carry as much short-term risk as long-term upside. 

Democrats began the cycle with virtually no margin for error, and the drag from Biden’s disapproval –inextricably linked to retirements and GOP recruitment/fundraising — long ago overtook redistricting as the leading threat to Democrats’ majority. Their only hope of holding on involves not only key map battles in New York, North Carolina and Ohio breaking their way but the president’s approval rating rebounding much closer to 50 percent.

The far more dramatic effect of 2022 redistricting: a rise in the number of hyper-partisan seats at the expense of competitive ones. So far in completed states, the number of single-digit Biden and Trump seats has declined from 62 to 46 (a 26 percent drop). That means a House even less responsive to shifts in public opinion, with more ideological "cul-de-sac" districts where candidates’ only electoral incentive is to play to a primary base.

What to expect from CES

We’re super excited this year to be a media partner at CES, the massive tech and policy conference in Las Vegas which launches today. Here’s a bit of our thinking: we at Punchbowl News convene our community all the time virtually and in Washington and elsewhere. And as the world gets back to normal, we’re going to try to have a presence at many of the events our core audience attends. 

Here’s the schedule for the week. We’ll have coverage in all of our editions between now and Friday – there’s lots of talk about policy and Power, People, Politics at CES. 

And here’s our ask of you: If you’re on the ground in Las Vegas this week and see any conversations, huddles or scenes you think people should know about, let us know. Our email addresses are first name [at] punchbowl [dot] news. 

SPENDING WARS

Democrats looking to scare GOP straight about another stopgap

Government funding runs out Feb. 18, and a full-year spending deal isn’t even really being talked about in the Capitol. Most of the focus from Democratic leaders and the White House has been on trying to pass the Build Back Better Act, and Republicans have held off on any budget agreement until they see what happens on that proposal.

Yet the federal government is already more than three months into the new fiscal year. In other words, the odds are growing that Congress will have to settle for a stopgap continuing resolution to fund all federal agencies through Sept. 30, which would be unprecedented.

Now Democrats are trying to up the pressure on their GOP counterparts on what that would mean, especially for the Pentagon and the nation’s national security apparatus.

To that end, the House Appropriations Committee has scheduled two hearings next week on the impact of a CR. 

On Jan. 11, the Legislative Branch subcommittee on House Appropriations has scheduled testimony from some of the top officials responsible for protecting the Capitol. These include the U.S. Capitol Police Chief Thomas Manger; Architect of the Capitol J. Brett Blanton; and William Walker, the House Sergeant at Arms. Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Ohio) chairs the panel.

The next day, Jan. 12, the Defense subcommittee on House Appropriations, which is chaired by Rep. Betty McCollum (D-Minn.), will hear from top generals and admirals. Witnesses include Gen. David Berger, Commandant of the U.S. Marine Corps; Gen. Charles Brown, U.S. Air Force chief of staff; Admiral Michael Gilday, Chief of Naval Operations for the U.S. Navy; Gen. John Raymond, Chief of Space Operations at U.S. Space Force; and Gen. Joseph Martin, vice chief of staff for the U.S. Army. Under Secretary for Defense (Comptroller) Mike McCord will also testify.

Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.), who chairs the Defense subcommittee on the Senate Appropriations panel, told us a CR would be “devastating” for military operations, especially in light of growing threats from China and Russia.

“I think that’s a really good idea on their part because I think a CR would be a catastrophe,” Tester said of the House’s plans. Tester added that he would talk to Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.), chair of the full committee, to hold similar hearings on the Senate side.

FRONTS

MOMENTS

9:30 a.m.: Senate Rules will hold a Capitol Police oversight hearing on Jan. 6.

10:10 a.m.: President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris will get their daily intelligence briefing.

11 a.m.: The Covid-19 team will brief reporters.

12:15 p.m.: Jen Psaki and John Pocari, the port envoy to the administration’s supply chain task force, will brief reporters.

CLIP FILE

NYT

→ “Biden Administration to Increase Supply of ‘Game Changer’ Pfizer Pill,” by Noah Weiland and Rebecca Robbins

→ “Prosecutors Move Quickly on Jan. 6 Cases, but Big Questions Remain,” by Alan Feuer

WaPo

→ “​​Biden faces highly charged legal fight with migrants whose children were taken away under Trump,” by Sean Sullivan and Maria Sacchetti

WSJ

→ “Trump Cancels News Conference Planned for Anniversary of Jan. 6 Riot,” by Siobhan Hughes

Bloomberg

→ “Biden Grabs for Jan. 6 Spotlight, Shadowed by False Trump Claims,” by Justin Sink, Billy House, and Mark Niquette

AP

→ “‘We were trapped’: Trauma of Jan. 6 lingers for lawmakers,” by Mary Clare Jalonick

→ “Virginia officials defend response to snowy gridlock on I-95,” by Sarah Rankin and Denise Lavoie

Politico

→ “GOP sees ‘huge red wave’ potential by targeting critical race theory,” by Liz Crampton

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Editorial photos provided by Getty Images