View in web browser

PRESENTED BY

BY JOHN BRESNAHAN, ANNA PALMER AND JAKE SHERMAN
WITH MAX COHEN AND CHRISTIAN HALL

THE TOP

Happy Thursday. There has been so much chatter and hand wringing in the Capitol about the Virginia gubernatorial race, we figured that we’d spend a moment diving into how the contest might impact Congress.

First of all, let’s start here: We don’t know who is going to win between Democrat Terry McAuliffe and Republican Glenn Youngkin on Nov. 2. We’ve heard compelling arguments from Democrats that Virginia has permanently realigned to become a blue state; Democrats have won four of the last five gubernatorial races, while President Joe Biden carried the Old Dominion by 10 points a year ago. We’ve heard equally compelling arguments that it’s tough for a Democrat to win anywhere in this current political moment. No one knows. 

But let’s think about the two scenarios in front of us and what it may mean for the Capitol. If McAuliffe wins, Congress probably continues apace in a status quo environment for the rest of the fall. Democrats might get a bit of a pep in their step. 

Let’s now explore the scenario in which Youngkin wins. Democrats are talking about it, thinking about it and fretting it. 

One sharp former House insider put it this way: “McAuliffe v. Youngkin represents three things that are at the core of every House Member’s DNA — self-preservation, elections, money.”

This is actually a pretty apt way to think about the political landscape in a post-gubernatorial Virginia world.

Virginia will be a data point — how useful a data point is to be determined — in an environment in which Democrats are looking for feedback on their aggressive agenda and Biden’s sagging approval ratings. Polls have a bad rep after 2016 and 2020. But elections are different. Every single House lawmaker has to run for re-election, so they’ll look at the results as a harbinger of what’s to come in their own races. And so will the political media, campaign pros, lobbyists and advocacy groups. It’s a tad bit lazy because Virginia is not like Florida, Georgia, Pennsylvania or Texas. But you go with what you’ve got.

On the money front: McAuliffe is known for raising gobs of money. But Youngkin, a former top executive at the Carlyle Group, the investment firm, has spent millions of dollars out of his own pocket, at least $16 million, neutralizing McAuliffe’s edge there. If McAuliffe loses, Democrats will look at the race and say, “McAuliffe raised all that money and still couldn’t beat Youngkin.” Democratic donors may look to shift money away from the House and toward the Senate, where Democrats have better odds.

Trump vs. Biden: McAuliffe is trying to turn this into a referendum on Donald Trump, while Youngkin is trying to turn it into a referendum on both Biden and the ongoing “culture war” that Republicans are ginning up in order to avoid talking about Trump. Trump, of course, is busy trying to inject himself in the race. He’s bashed Youngkin for not embracing him more openly. And former Trump aide Steve Bannon — under subpoena by the Jan. 6 select committee — led a “Take Back Virginia” event on Wednesday night where Trump called in, per Mel Leonor of the Richmond Times-Dispatch. “Glenn Youngkin is a great gentleman… We’ve got to get him in.” Youngkin didn’t attend the event, but McAuliffe pounded him anyway.

Impact on the Biden agenda: There will be Democrats who look at a McAuliffe loss as a warning to slow down when it comes to Biden’s massive infrastructure and social spending agenda. That’s a real hurdle the White House would have to clear. 

Remember: Many House and Senate Democrats view this through the 2009-10 Obamacare framework. And they worry it’s happening again. Republicans Bob McDonnell won in Virginia and Chris Christie in New Jersey in November 2009, while Scott Brown’s shocking win in January 2010 in the race to succeed the late Sen. Ted Kennedy (D-Mass.) was a sign of the growing Tea Party wave.

So as Sean Sullivan, Paul Kane and Laura Vozzella from the Washington Post reported Wednesday, Democrats are bringing in the “heavy hitters” to try to help push McAuliffe over the top:

Former president Barack Obama will hit the campaign trail for McAuliffe later this month as part of an effort to boost turnout among Black voters. So will Stacey Abrams, a rising Democratic star from Georgia, and Keisha Lance Bottoms, the mayor of Atlanta. First lady Jill Biden will also stump for McAuliffe, while House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) will host a fundraiser for the gubernatorial hopeful.

What happens in Virginia will have a big impact on Biden’s presidency. It may or may not be a harbinger of what’s to come in 2022, but it will certainly impact lawmakers’ behavior in the short term. Members of Congress aren’t always logical actors, and we may see some of that behavior in the weeks and months to come.

INSIDE THE DEMOCRATIC CAUCUS

What happens to committee chairs if Dems lose the House in 2022?

There’s been enormous speculation about Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s future —  whether this is her last term and who would replace the California Democrat if she leaves. The possibility of a GOP takeover figures heavily into this chatter, although that’s all it is at this point — chatter. Part of this discussion includes fellow octogenarians Steny Hoyer and Jim Clyburn, the House majority leader and majority whip respectively. This trio has dominated the House Democratic Caucus for nearly a generation, but all three may end up departing if Republicans win the House. We’ll see.

However, the retirement announcement this week by House Budget Committee Chair John Yarmuth (D-Ky.) got us thinking about what would happen to Democrats at the committee level. More specifically, what would happen to the current crop of Democratic committee chairs in the event of a GOP victory?

Of course, ranking members don’t run committees or control the agenda. But they do get staff, and that means influence. There also aren’t any term limits for Democrats in committee posts, so there’s no reason why a member can’t stay atop atop a panel even if the party goes into the minority. As long as there are no challenges from below, they’re safe.

The other factor is that some of these Democrats have been around so long that they may not want another stint in the minority, particularly if it looks like that’s going to last for a while. Their relations with their GOP counterpart, the nature of the committee’s work, their age and personal health, and who is running their caucus all would be factors as well.

.On the four “Exclusive” or “A” committees — Appropriations, Energy and Commerce, Financial Services and Ways and Means — the biggest question mark would be Rep. Maxine Waters (D-Calif.). Waters is 83, and she may not want to go back into the minority again after all those years struggling to get a gavel in the first place. Yet like Pelosi, this is a decision for Waters alone to make. If Waters wants to stay, she will. As long as Waters keeps her district intact, she can stick around.

Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.), chair of the Appropriations Committee, is another one we’d watch closely. DeLauro, 78, is a close Pelosi ally. But she only took over the panel this year, so insiders believe she’d stay even if Democrats lose. DeLauro is in the midst of every policy fight right now.

The two other “Exclusive” committee chairs — Reps. Frank Pallone (D-N.J.) and Richie Neal (D-Mass.) — nearly 70 and 72 respectively, veritable spring chickens in the Democratic Caucus. “Lifers” is how one fellow Democrat described them. We don’t know about that, but both are seen as staying put even in the minority.

Among the other committee chairs, there are several we’d focus on in the event of a change in power. It’s 13 months until the midterm elections, so everything could change between now and then. We’re just speculating here.

→ Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson (D-Texas), chair of the Science, Space and Technology Committee, will be 86 in December. Johnson will have been in office for 30 years at the end of the 117th Congress. She and Rep. Frank Lucas (R-Okla.), the ranking member, are locked in a quiet standoff with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) over a major China competition initiative. If there’s a bipartisan, bicameral deal on this, EBJ could go out with a “W.”

→ Rep. Jerry Nadler (D-N.Y.), the 74-year-old chair of the Judiciary Committee, could face a potential challenge if Republicans take over. With Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) running the panel in the event of a GOP majority, some Democrats could look for a more aggressive person for the ranking member spot. Rep. Zoe Lofgren (D-Calif.) may be in that mix, if she decides to stay put. Lofgren was first elected to the House in 1994, so she’s done stints in both the majority and minority. 

→ Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D-N.Y.). Like the Judiciary panel, in the event of a Republican win in the midterms, the Oversight and Reform Committee would become a hot spot. The GOP would use the panel to go after the Biden White House. And like Nadler, the 75-year-old Maloney may come under pressure over her future as the ranking member during the 118th Congress. Plus, Maloney has a primary challenger again. 

Remember: when Republicans took over in 2011, Democrats moved to dump former Rep. Ed Towns (D-N.Y.) from the top of the Oversight Committee so someone more aggressive could go toe-to-toe with Rep. Darrell Issa (R-Calif.). We could see an analogous situation in 2023 for Maloney and Nadler.

→ Rep. Peter DeFazio (D-Ore.) is just 74 — not old for a House Democrat — but it’s a curmudgeonly 74. But no, jokes aside, if the $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill gets passed by the House and signed into law, then this may be time to leave, especially if Republicans are in charge in 2023. While it’s definitely not the bill DeFazio wanted as chair of the Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, it may be the best he (or any of us) are likely to see for a long time. Republicans had been targeting the Oregon Democrat in recent years because of his swing district. But DeFazio could be tempted to stick around because he seems to be winning in the redistricting battles: Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter reported in a recent piece that DeFazio’s district is going from an R+1 to a D+4 — meaning it will be far less competitive for the GOP. 

→ Rep. Raul Grijalva (D-Ariz.) is chair of the Natural Resources Committee. Grijalva is only 73, but he will have spent 20 years as a House member by the end of this Congress. Grijalva has faced questions about his health and personal behavior, including his drinking. Grijalva has denied allegations that he has an alcohol problem. Grijalva has very strong progressive credentials.

We’d also keep an eye on Rep. David Scott (D-Ga.), chair of the Agriculture Committee, and Rep. Bobby Scott (D-Va.) chair of the Education and Labor panel. David Scott is 76 and has health issues. Bobby Scott, 74, was elected in 1992, and he might not want to go back into the minority for a third time.

A couple of notes: A change in the House majority, of course, would lead to drastic changes of the upper ranks of the Democratic Caucus. It would also be devastating for the Congressional Black Caucus and other minority caucuses. There are no minority lawmakers in line to be committee chairs under a GOP majority except for Rep. Tom Cole (Okla.) at Rules. Cole is of Native American heritage. Under the Democrats, nine committees are run by minority lawmakers. There would still be minority lawmakers serving as ranking members, but as we said, it isn’t the same.

And the four select committees that Pelosi has created — Jan. 6, climate crisis, “Economic Disparity and Fairness in Growth” and “Modernization of Congress” — could all disappear. It’s a possibility that Kevin McCarthy could keep the modernization one if he’s speaker. But the rest are gone.

Also gone probably — proxy voting on the floor and metal detectors. 

JAN. 6

The politics behind depositions

Today is a key moment in the House select committee’s probe into the deadly Jan. 6 insurrection. The panel has subpoenaed four senior aides to former President Donald Trump for documents and testimony — Steve Bannon, Kash Patel, Mark Meadows and Dan Scavino. Bannon and Patel are due to give depositions today, while Meadows and Scavino are supposed to be deposed tomorrow.

Trump has claimed executive privilege and told these four aides not to cooperate with the select committee. But President Joe Biden has opposed Trump’s claim, setting up a legal clash over how far a former president can push that privilege.

Select committee members have repeatedly declared this week that they’ll seek criminal contempt referrals to the Justice Department if the former Trump aides refuse to comply with the subpoenas. The full House would have to vote on any contempt referral to DOJ, which would determine whether to bring charges.

While Congress does have “inherent contempt” authority to detain witnesses who don’t comply with witnesses, it hasn’t been invoked in decades.

You’ll see a lot of camera shots today of the committee room and people waiting for Bannon and Patel. Bannon has said he won’t testify today and Patel is unlikely to show up. 

THE MONEY GAME

→ New: Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) raised more than $2 million last quarter through his Cornyn Victory Committee, and he’s spreading it across the Senate Republican Conference. He gave between $70,000 to $100,000 to all Senate Republicans up this cycle; he earmarked between $20,000 and $25,000 for GOP nominees in open seats in Alabama, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania, and challengers in Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, New Hampshire and Nevada. He also transferred $350,000 to the NRSC. He’s given more than $600,000 to the NRSC this cycle.

When Senate Republican insiders talk about who will be the next GOP leader, they say Cornyn’s chief advantage is his fundraising prowess. This is a clear example of that. 

→ Off embargo at 5:30 a.m.: The NRCC announced that it has raised $103 million through September of this year, which they note is 74% more than last cycle. Their third quarter total is $25.8 million, including $12.2 million in September. The NRCC has $65 million on hand, which is almost triple what they had this time last cycle. ​

FRONTS

Inflation nation

MOMENTS

9:30 a.m.: President Joe Biden will get his daily intelligence briefing.

10 a.m.: Vice President Kamala Harris will participate in a virtual town hall about the care provisions in the president’s agenda.

10:30 a.m.: Biden and Harris will get a Covid briefing.

11:30 a.m.: Biden will speak about Covid.

12:15 p.m.: Biden and Harris will have lunch.

1 p.m.: Jen Psaki will brief. 

2:15 p.m.: Biden will meet with Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta.

5:35 p.m.: Harris and Second Gentleman Doug Emhoff will fly to Los Angeles for the weekend.

CLIP FILE

NYT

→ “As Budget Bill Hangs in Limbo, Kyrsten Sinema Heads to Europe,” by Shane Goldmacher

→ “Data from Federal Scientists Raise Questions About J.&J. Booster Shots,” by Carl Zimmer and Noah Weiland

WaPo

→ “Economic challenges piling up for the Biden administration,” by David Lynch and Rachel Siegel

→ “Supreme Court to consider Boston Marathon bomber’s death sentence,” by Robert Barnes

WSJ

→ “Accelerating Inflation Spreads Through the Economy,” by Gwynn Guilford

AP

→ “The AP Interview: Kerry says climate talks may miss target,” by Ellen Knickmeyer

Enjoying Punchbowl News AM?

Subscribe 10 friends with your unique link (below) and get a Punchbowl News hat!

Your referral link is: 

You can see all the rewards in here!

Or share via

You currently have: 0 referrals

Editorial photos provided by Getty Images