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![]() PRESENTED BY![]() BY JOHN BRESNAHAN, ANNA PALMER AND JAKE SHERMAN THE TOPGood Monday morning! After the drama of last week, Washington may feel like it’s due for a break. No such luck. On Oct. 18, the U.S. government will hit the debt limit, meaning the Treasury Department won’t be able to borrow more money to finance government operations. Right now, the issue is caught up in a partisan showdown that shows no signs of resolution. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and his fellow Senate Republicans are filibustering Democratic attempts to raise the debt limit by a simple majority vote, saying Democrats need to boost the debt limit on their own as they assemble a multi-trillion dollar reconciliation package full of new social spending programs. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Senate Democrats counter that this is a hypocritical stance, pointing out that Republicans helped incur these debts and thus should allow the debt limit to be raised in a normal way. So far, neither side is backing down, and the financial markets are starting to get nervous about what the faceoff could mean for the U.S. and world economy. We’re going to hear more on this today from Schumer. We have some news on this as well: Last week, the Senate parliamentarian’s office privately provided both Democrats and Republicans with guidance about raising the debt limit via reconciliation. Under this process, Democrats could pass a debt-limit reconciliation package with only a majority vote, and they wouldn’t need any GOP support. This has been the approach McConnell has been calling for over the last two-plus months. According to the parliamentarian’s office, Democrats could do this without impacting the existing reconciliation package. That legislation would stay on its own separate track and not lose its privilege in the Senate, meaning it can’t be filibustered and would only require a majority vote for approval. Democrats had been concerned that they could jeopardize that bigger bill by attempting to do a separate, debt-limit-only reconciliation bill, but that’s not the case, the parliamentarian said. It’s still not entirely clear, however, if Democrats could suspend the debt limit for a certain amount of time under this approach or whether they would have to increase the debt limit by a fixed number, say several trillion dollars. The second is a tougher vote politically and one of the reasons why Democrats don’t want to be forced into this maneuver. A debt-limit budget resolution — it could be in theory as short as one sentence — could originate in the Senate Budget Committee. There would be no “automatic discharge” of the resolution from Budget, meaning Democrats could have to spend valuable floor time freeing the resolution from the panel in the case of a tie vote. At least one Republican would have to participate in the Budget Committee to constitute a quorum, but that’s probably isn’t a problem since GOP senators would welcome an opportunity to bash Democrats and President Joe Biden. There would also be two vote-a-ramas in the Senate using this process — once for the debt-limit-only budget resolution, and a second for any reconciliation bill that comes back from the House. However, this wouldn’t be like previous vote-a-ramas since “germaneness” would limit the number and type of amendments being offered. A debt-limit-only budget resolution and reconciliation bill are narrower than the budget resolutions that Democrats previously offered this year. Now here’s the critical question — how long would this take? The parliamentarians don’t give a time limit, but Senate insiders estimate it could be completed in as little as two weeks. Democrats raise objections to this estimate. Vote-a-ramas have no time limit, they point out, so there’s no guarantee how long this will take. Democrats also note that if amendments were passed by the Senate during the second vote-a-rama, it would force the House to vote on the measure again. And they reject the whole approach on the grounds that — as we said before — it’s hypocritical for McConnell to force them to do this since Democrats agreed to raise the debt limit under former President Donald Trump, despite their opposition to the 2017 GOP tax cut, which added trillions to the national debt. “Going through the long, convoluted, difficult reconciliation process with debt limit is very, very risky,” Schumer said last week after he met with Senate Democrats. “We’re not pursuing that.” But as we also noted above, there’s only two weeks until the “X date” set by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen for raising the debt limit. If there’s no movement by the end of this week — and the House isn’t scheduled to be back in town until Oct. 19 — then financial markets are likely to start getting seriously rattled. Many Democrats believe that McConnell will come under pressure to find some compromise at some point. Yet that’s not where the Senate Republican Conference is. McConnell doesn’t have as much freedom to operate here as many Democrats believe; some of his Republicans are much more hard-core on this. So Washington goes from infrastructure-reconciliation drama to debt-limit drama. Except this act is much more perilous than the previous one. Biden will speak about the debt limit this morning at 11:15 a.m. in the State Dining Room. PRESENTED BY CHEVRON October is Energy Awareness Month, a time to reflect on the energy impact we, as humans, have on the world. At Chevron, we know it will take many forms of energy to meet growing demand. Through Chevron New Energies, we’re focusing on growing our lower carbon businesses in hydrogen, carbon capture, and offsets. Because it’s only human to help power a better tomorrow. POP-UP CONVERSATION WITH SEN. TOM CARPER Join us: Anna Palmer will interview Sen. Tom Carper (D-Del.) Wednesday, Oct. 6 at 2:30 pm EDT about the role private capital is playing to spur investment in renewable energy and infrastructure industries. The event is the second in a two-part series on “Investing in America” looking at how private capital is helping boost the U.S. economy. Afterward, AIC’s CEO Drew Maloney and Steve Luker, CEO of Catalyze, will join Anna for a fireside conversation. RSVP here! THE BREAKUP House Republicans push U.S. Chamber out of strategy sessions ![]() House Republican leadership has officially broken up with the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. GOP leadership has booted the Chamber from the party’s reconciliation-related coalition strategy calls. These calls between Republicans and their allies outside the Capitol help the leadership mobilize for their priorities and against the Democrats. This move by the leadership essentially says that the Chamber is an outcast in House Republican legislative politics. Here’s what the Chamber said to us in response to them being on the outside with the GOP:
For a long time, it would’ve been hard to imagine any Republican coalition without the Chamber. But the Chamber has been looking to cozy up to Democrats in recent years, and that has drawn the ire of Republicans. The Chamber has been supportive of the $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill and has publicly made the argument that it was separate from the larger reconciliation package — an argument that angered House Republicans. ON THE ROAD AGAIN Why Biden is going to Michigan to sell BBB, BIF ![]() President Joe Biden is beginning to travel to sell the reconciliation package, and his first stop is Howell, Mich. Tuesday. The White House chose Michigan because they think it has a special significance to the middle class and a strong union history. In their view, this makes it a good place to talk about the impact the reconciliation package would have on real people. The Biden administration is trying to keep the focus on the impact that the massive social spending package will have on “real people” as they deal with the legislative wrangling in the Capitol. PRESENTED BY CHEVRON At Chevron, we’re taking steps toward a lower carbon future. Because it’s only human to help power a better tomorrow. FRONTS ![]() MOMENTS 9:35 a.m.: President Joe Biden and First Lady Jill Biden will leave Wilmington and will arrive at the White House at 10:30. 11:15 a.m.: Biden will speak about the need to raise the debt limit. 1 p.m.: Jen Psaki will brief. CLIP FILE NYT → “Democratic Voters See Many Losers in Party Schism, and One Winner: Trump,” by Tracey Tully in Ridgewood, N.J. → “Blinken Faces an Awkward Visit to Paris, His ‘Second Home’,” by Michael Crowley → “Hungary’s Leader Fights Criticism in U.S. via Vast Influence Campaign,” by Ken Vogel and Benjamin Novak WaPo → “For Democrats and the Biden agenda, it’s becoming a matter of trust,” by Marianna Sotomayor → “U.S. Navy hit by another international bribery scandal,” by Craig Whitlock → “In political spotlight, Supreme Court embarks on extraordinarily controversial term,” by Robert Barnes → “BILLIONS HIDDEN BEYOND REACH,” by Greg Miller, Debbie Cenziper and Peter Whoriskey WSJ → “The Facebook Whistleblower, Frances Haugen, Says She Wants to Fix the Company, Not Harm It,” by Jeff Horwitz → “U.S. to Press China on Trade Pact, Keep Tariffs in Place,” by Josh Zumbrun and Alex Leary → WSJ Editorial Board: “Humiliation of the House Moderates” AP → “Can Democrats hold together? Biden’s agenda depends on it,” by Lisa Mascaro → “Ex-US Rep. Todd Akin, sunk by ‘legitimate rape’ remark, dies,” by John Hanna and Jim Salter PRESENTED BY CHEVRON At Chevron, we believe in actions, not just words. This Energy Awareness Month, we’re continuing our work to help advance a lower carbon future. From lowering the carbon emissions intensity of our operations to investing in lower carbon businesses. Energy demand is growing, but it’s only human to want to power a better tomorrow. ![]() Enjoying Punchbowl News AM? ![]() Subscribe 10 friends with your unique link (below) and get a Punchbowl News hat! Your referral link is: Or share via You currently have: 0 referrals
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