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PRESENTED BY

BY JOHN BRESNAHAN, ANNA PALMER AND JAKE SHERMAN
WITH MAX COHEN AND CHRISTIAN HALL

THE TOP

Happy Friday morning. How is recess over already? 

There are 21 days until government funding runs out. President Joe Biden’s legislative agenda is on the clock. The debt limit needs lifting very soon. The annual National Defense Authorization Act needs to be passed. 

We’re about to begin Washington’s annual end-of-year madness. And, as you can tell from above, the current to-do list is as bad as it gets for Biden and Democratic party leaders.

But whenever there’s legislative disarray, leadership is in the driver’s seat. So let’s take a look at the Big Four, where they stand, what they have to accomplish and what obstacles they have to overcome.

→ Speaker Nancy Pelosi: Pelosi likes to say that diversity is the Democratic Party’s strength, and unity is their power. But ideological diversity has been their weakness this year and has led to big rifts within Pelosi’s ranks. Pelosi got one major thing off her plate last week when the House passed the $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill after 87 long days. 

Yet the path ahead is even more treacherous for the Democrats’ top priority, which is getting the Build Back Better Act to Biden’s desk. Pelosi must — and we mean really, really must — take control of the game here. Her small margin of control in the House has forced Pelosi to coddle progressives and moderates alike. But there comes a moment in a legislative debate where the speaker needs to be the hammer. And it’s about that time. In the final analysis, moderates are either going to vote for this bill or not. It’s not really clear at this point whether they will. That’s what Pelosi and her leadership team need to make heads or tails of next week.

It’s only the first round for Pelosi on BBB. Once this bill gets back from the Senate, it’s going to be a watered down shell of itself, in the eyes of progressives. That’s when Pelosi and Biden make the "something-is-better-than-nothing" speech. 

Our view is finishing BBB before New Year’s Day would be a success for Democrats at this point.

→ Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer: The New York Democrat faces the same brutal combination of factors that Pelosi does, except worse. Much worse. The Senate remains locked in a 50-50 split for one of the longest periods in its history. And the ideological disputes between Democrats — here it’s largely Sens. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) versus everyone else in the Democratic Caucus — are just as bad as in the House. There isn’t a single vote to spare, essentially giving each Democratic senator a veto on every bill or nomination if Republicans stay united.

Schumer is also in the middle of a political battle for a majority in 2022, and he has to take care of his own reelection campaign as well. And the poll numbers for his former colleagues, Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris, continue to slide, which makes the first goal that much tougher.

Inside the caucus, Schumer’s standing remains solid. We talked to a dozen Democrats about this issue prior to the recess, both on and off the record. We wondered if his Democratic colleagues would see him as weak for appearing to give into Manchin and Sinema on everything, which is a complaint you hear often from progressive groups.

But there’s not a lot of criticism about Schumer on that front. Most Senate Democrats commiserated with him, saying it would be a difficult spot for any majority leader. Advocates don’t like Schumer’s approach, especially his bland messaging and endless promises of “big, bold action” — he doesn’t use that line as much these days — but it seems to work just fine with his fellow Democratic senators.

There were two complaints that we did hear. The first is that Schumer is acting like an “old school” majority leader, more interested in the inside game, while Manchin is more typical of the Donald Trump-era pol. Meaning Manchin is dominating the daily political debate through statements to reporters and social media posts.  

The second is that Schumer “never says no to anyone.” Schumer tries to appease all the factions within the caucus endlessly. Progressives want him to draw a “red line” with Manchin and Sinema. Yet that’s not Schumer’s style as leader. And it wouldn’t work with Manchin and Sinema anyway. Why jeopardize the party’s legislative goals by doing so?

Schumer’s main tasks during these next few months is to somehow steer the Build Back Better Act through the Senate; replicate his win in last month’s showdown with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell over the debt limit; and put together a spending deal while avoiding a government shutdown. Any one of those by itself would be a challenge. All three together are like trying to traverse a mountain covered in ice wearing flip flops.

Schumer will get help from Biden and senior White House officials on all these issues, but BBB will be the critical one. Biden may have to deliver Manchin and Sinema in the end, or help broker a truce between moderates and progressives, as he did in the House.

Democrats seem convinced that McConnell won’t provoke a debt default, and they believe that a spending deal is relatively straightforward if BBB is resolved. These might not be great reads of McConnell’s intentions, but that’s the sense we get from Senate Democrats right now. Everything hinges on BBB’s fate over the next few weeks.

→ Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell: We scooped last week that McConnell was coy when asked by fellow Senate Republicans about how he’d handle the upcoming debt limit fight. McConnell said there was plenty of time to talk about  the issue and he didn’t want to show his cards yet. Well, it’s pretty much time he showed his cards. 

For reasons that we can’t quite figure out, Democrats again don’t appear willing yet to amend the reconciliation package to include a debt limit increase, so all eyes are on McConnell. There were complaints from some Republicans that McConnell caved unnecessarily last month to Schumer and the White House on this issue. So does he have a strategy for this next go-round? And if so, what is it? And will the rank-and-file buy into it? The debt limit episode will test McConnell’s mettle and sway in the conference. All his energy and focus can be here as Senate Republicans are unanimously opposed to BBB. Government funding likely will be punted on a short-term basis. This is the main event for McConnell.

→ House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy: Being House minority leader is both the best and worst job in Washington at the same time. You have status but no power. And since the House is in reality a dictatorship, the majority beats you down on the floor every day.

But it also means that you’re not responsible for any governing, so you can oppose everything the majority wants, especially if they hold the White House too. So McCarthy has even less legislating to do than McConnell. 

Yet McCarthy has some messes to deal with right now. Rep. Paul Gosar (R-Ariz.) posted and defended a bizarre and disturbing murder fantasy about Democratic Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York. Some hardline Republicans want to strip the committee assignments for the 13 GOP lawmakers who voted for the bipartisan infrastructure deal. A couple of his members are either under criminal investigation or indictment. Dealing with Trump remains a volatile situation that can blow up anytime.

Let’s be clear here: McCarthy is likely to lead House Republicans back to the majority and he has a better chance than ever to be speaker — we’ll explore this topic much more quite soon. But he has to play his cards right. McCarthy has to maintain some semblance of respect from the outside, and some degree of control from the inside.

2022

Alaska GOP Sen. Lisa Murkowski will run for re-election next year

Lisa Murkowski is running for re-election in Alaska. Here’s the video:

This is big for Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, but it will upset former President Donald Trump. After Murkowski voted to convict Trump during his second impeachment trial, the former president endorsed Kelly Tshibaka for Alaska’s Senate seat. 

Check out what Murkowski said in her ad: 

“In this election, lower 48 outsiders are going to try to grab Alaska’s Senate seat for their partisan agendas. They don’t understand our state and frankly, they couldn’t care less about your future. My commitment to Alaska is the same one I made during my first campaign. I will work with anyone from either party to advance Alaskans priorities, and I will always stand up to any politician or special interest that threatens our way of life “

That’s the whole message from Murkowski — and in a state like Alaska, perhaps that works. Remember, this is someone who ran and won a write-in campaign in 2010 when she lost the GOP nomination. 

Murkowski, 64, is a skilled pol and respected dealmaker who has crossed the aisle to vote for a number of President Joe Biden’s nominees.

She’s also forged a good working relationship with Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), chair of the Energy and Natural Resources Committee. Murkowski is the ranking Republican on that panel.

Murkowski, the daughter of former senator and Gov. Frank Murkowski, was first appointed to the Senate in Dec. 2002 to fill a vacancy left by her father’s departure. 

THE POST JAN. 6 WORLD

Meadows faces time crunch on Jan. 6 probe

As a member of Congress, former Rep. Mark Meadows (R-N.C.) once pushed to have the House initiate contempt proceedings against a top FBI official for refusing to comply with a congressional subpoena. Now he may face the same fate himself.

Meadows has until 10 a.m. this morning to comply with a subpoena from the Jan. 6 select committee to appear for a deposition on his role in deadly attack on the Capitol, as well as what he knows as the former White House chief of staff about then President Donald Trump’s actions that bloody day.

We couldn’t find any record of Congress holding a former member in contempt.

But an exchange of letters between the committee chair Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.)and Meadows’ lawyer means made clear he’s not going to show up today. The panel is then prepared to move ahead with criminal and civil contempt proceedings against the four-term lawmaker, who resigned in March 2020 to take over as Trump’s top aide.

Meadows’ attorney, George Terwilliger — a one-time Justice Department lawyer and acting attorney general who once defended former Rep. Aaron Schock (R-Ill.) — has raised both absolute immunity and executive privilege claims in order to justify the ex White House chief of staff’s refusal to comply. Under the absolute immunity claim, senior White House officials can’t be subpoenaed. DOJ’s Office of Legal Counsel has argued this position, although courts have rejected it. Trump is also asserting an executive privilege claim to prevent Meadows and other aides from having to testify or turn over any documents or records they may have. That case is already in court.

In a letter to Terwilliger on Thursday night, Thompson dismissed Meadows’ legal claims and said he must appear today or face both criminal and civil contempt proceedings.

“Simply put, there is no valid legal basis for Mr. Meadows’s continued resistance to the Select Committee’s subpoena. As such, the Select Committee expects Mr. Meadows to produce all responsive documents and appear for deposition testimony tomorrow, November 12, 2021, at 10:00 a.m,” Thompson wrote. “If there are specific questions during that deposition that you believe raise legitimate privilege issues, Mr. Meadows should state them at that time on the record for the Select Committee’s consideration and possible judicial review.”

Thompson added: “The Select Committee will view Mr. Meadows’s failure to appear at the deposition, and to produce responsive documents or a privilege log indicating the specific basis for withholding any documents you believe are protected by privilege, as willful non-compliance. Such willful noncompliance with the subpoena would force the Select Committee to consider invoking the contempt of Congress procedures … which could result in a referral from the House of Representatives to the Department of Justice for criminal charges –as well as the possibility of having a civil action to enforce the subpoena brought against Mr. Meadows in his personal capacity.”

The White House Counsel’s office also sent Terwilliger a letter that “eviscerates any plausible claim of testimonial immunity or executive privilege, and compels compliance with the Select Committee’s subpoena,” Thompson said.

The House made a criminal contempt referral to DOJ over Steve Bannon’s refusal to testify. Along with Meadows, former DOJ official Jeffrey Clark won’t comply with the select committee’s subpoena, and he too may face contempt proceedings, Thompson has warned.

The Meadows’ dispute is the latest episode in a frantic week of action for the select committee. The panel’s lawyers and Trump’s attorneys were locked in a legal fight over Trump’s executive privilege claim. And the select committee issued another wave of subpoenas to former Trump aides.

DIGGING IN DEEP

Money for senators papers tucked deep in spending bill

A source pointed out to us an interesting provision in the 2022 Legislative Branch spending bill released recently by Senate Democrats. It has to do with “partnering with public institutions designated as repositories of Senators’ records.” This has not come up for a vote yet.

From the text of the Leg Branch bill:

“The Committee recognizes the significant burdens and challenges that archiving efforts place on Senators’ offices and provides $10,000,000 to assist with the proper archiving of official records… Preservation partnership grants should not exceed $2,500,000, and the availability of grants should be determined 6 months after the date of enactment of this law, from applications submitted to the Senate Historical Office by repositories designated by currently serving Senators, in order of the number of years of Senate records being accessioned.”

What this means is that the Senate Appropriations Committee Democrats want to spend $10 million in taxpayer money to help colleges or other institutions get ready to take their personal papers when they leave office. Because senators need that. 

This also comes as Sen. Richard Shelby (Ala.), the ranking Republican on Appropriations, just agreed to donate his official papers to the University of Alabama. Shelby got his undergraduate and law degrees at the school, and his wife is a University of Alabama grad and former professor. So there are some strong personal ties to the university, to say the least.

A Shelby aide noted that the gift of the senator’s official papers to the university has been in the works for a while. And furthermore, Shelby didn’t request the $10 million request, doesn’t support it now and hasn’t in the past, the aide said. This isn’t Shelby’s doing, in other words.

Let’s also point out that Shelby has already steered hundreds of millions of dollars in federal money to the University of Alabama system, and a number of his former aides lobbied on its behalf.

There’s Shelby Hall at the University of Alabama. There’s also the Shelby Center for Science and Technology at the University of Alabama in Huntsville. And the Shelby Biomedical Research Building at the University of Alabama at Birmingham. There are lots of Shelby-named buildings in the Yellowhammer State.

FRONTS

MOMENTS

8:30 a.m.: President Joe Biden will participate in the APEC leaders meeting.

9:30 a.m.: Biden will get his daily intelligence briefing.

1 p.m.: Jen Psaki will brief. 

2:30 p.m.: Biden will have a Cabinet meeting where he’ll discuss the infrastructure bill. 

5:40 p.m.: Biden will leave the White House for Camp David, where he’ll spend the weekend.

CLIP FILE

NYT

→ “Ocasio-Cortez Isn’t Wavering. Are New Yorkers on Her Side?” by Katie Glueck and Nicholas Fandos

→ “In Illinois, Dueling Infrastructure Votes Reflect Shifting G.O.P. Terrain,” by Jonathan Weisman

WaPo

→ “Top Biden health officials push to make coronavirus booster shots available to all adults,” by Laurie McGinley, Lena H. Sun and Tyler Pager 

→ “Opinion: Mitch McConnell: Democrats, leave the Supreme Court alone”

→ “American journalist Danny Fenster sentenced to 11 years in jail in Myanmar,” by Shibani Mihtani

WSJ

→ “Biden and China’s Xi to Hold Virtual Summit on Monday,” by Alex Leary and Gordon Lubold

Bloomberg

→ “Treasuries Resume Slide on Concern Inflation to Force Fed’s Hand,” by Masaki Kondo

USA Today

→ “New infections on the rise in most states,” by Mike Stucka

LAT

→ “The most Latino congressional district in the nation is split apart under draft redistricting maps,” by Seema Mehta

NPR

→ “A bill to study reparations for slavery had momentum in Congress, but still no vote,” by Juana Summers

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