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PRESENTED BY

BY JOHN BRESNAHAN, ANNA PALMER AND JAKE SHERMAN
WITH MAX COHEN AND CHRISTIAN HALL

THE TOP

… And we’re back! Happy Monday, everyone. The Senate returns today, the House is back on Tuesday. We’ll be in the Capitol today. Happy Hanukkah! 

At the risk of being repetitive, this is shaping up to be the busiest December in years. Think back to 2010 when the Bush tax cuts were expiring or 2012’s “fiscal cliff.” Those seem like simpler, happier times compared to what we’re about to get into during these next few weeks. Government funding, the debt limit, the National Defense Authorization Act, Build Back Better Act, the Jan. 6 committee and executive-branch nominations — the list of issues that require immediate action is long and difficult. There’s a very good chance that the BBB could slip into 2022. 

Also, the Omicron variant of Covid is spreading fast, causing the United States and other nations to reimpose travel restrictions and raising questions about the potential for economic fallout. The White House and Congress will have to struggle with this, as well.

So let’s deal with these in order.

→ Government funding: This is the top priority right off the bat. Government funding runs out on Dec. 3. Yep, that’s Friday, as in four days from now. 

We have some news here: On Tuesday, House leaders will introduce a stopgap funding bill expected to run through mid to late January. Jan. 21 or Jan. 28 are being floated as end dates. A floor vote is possible by Wednesday, according to multiple Democratic and GOP lawmakers and aides. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer will need an agreement with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell to get the continuing resolution (CR) through that chamber by week’s end, but that isn’t expected to be a major problem. Of course there will be some drama, there always is. However, we don’t expect any government shutdown at this point. It doesn’t serve anyone’s political needs.

There are some outstanding issues that have to be dealt with before any CR deal is finalized. Funding for unaccompanied children taken into U.S. custody at the southern border has to be addressed, as does money for Afghan refugees held overseas at American military bases. There’s a Medicare sequester issue kicking in on Jan. 1 that party leaders in both chambers may want to deal with as part of the CR. 

→ Debt limit: Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told congressional leaders last month that she has a “high degree of confidence” that the federal government can pay its bills through Dec. 15, but what happens after that date is unclear. Budget experts believe that Treasury may have until mid-January or even longer before the debt limit has to be raised. The legislative mechanism for doing that, though, is still unclear. Senate Democrats have shown no interest in attaching it to BBB — as McConnell has suggested for the last five months — and there’s no interest from House Democrats or Senate Republicans to adding it onto the defense authorization bill, which Schumer has floated. So party leaders need to find a vehicle for a debt-limit increase. It won’t be the CR, although that would make the most sense in a lot of ways. But sense and Congress don’t always go together.

What’s notable here is the lack of incendiary language from McConnell and Senate Republicans on the issue this time around. Schumer and McConnell have met and discussed resolving the debt limit, but they haven’t said much beyond that. Hopefully there’ll be some more clarity this week. Wall Street is watching closely.

→ BBB: This is the huge policy challenge for Senate Democrats and President Joe Biden following House passage, with Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) as the key protagonist. Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) is also a major player, although Democrats see her as more interested in making deals. Manchin has raised objections to a number of provisions in the $1.7 trillion package passed by the House, including paid family leave. Schumer has said he wants the bill done by Christmas, although that seems immensely ambitious with everything else going on. The deadline could slide until January.

Beyond Manchin’s concerns, progressive Senate Democrats including Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) have expressed disappointment over the House bill’s Medicare expansion provisions — they don’t go far enough — and SALT language, which goes too far. Immigration is another huge problem.

News: Senate Democratic aides will huddle informally today with the Parliamentarian’s office over Byrd Rule issues, with more formal bipartisan sessions expected this week. The Byrd Rule is likely to knock out the Immigration provisions included in the House bill. This will lead to a major challenge for Democratic leaders and the White House with pro-immigration groups.

→ NDAA: The Senate is currently debating this legislation, and there’s a cloture vote on a substitute bill offered by Armed Services Committee Chair Jack Reed (D-R.I.) scheduled for today. The two sides were unable to come to agreement on amendments before the Thanksgiving recess, so that will have to happen this week. There may be votes on Afghanistan, repealing the 1991 and 2002 Iraq AUMFs, women in the draft, China and a lot more.

→ Jan. 6 investigation: Some news here: The House could vote as early as this week on criminal contempt referrals to the Justice Department for former White House chief of staff and ex-Rep. Mark Meadows (R-N.C.), as well as former Justice Department official Jeffrey Clark, according to multiple Democratic sources. Both Meadows and Clark have failed to comply with subpoenas from the House select committee investigating the deadly Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol. Meadows, who left the House in 2020 to become former President Donald Trump’s chief of staff, has refused to comply with his subpoena, citing Trump’s executive privilege claim, which is being litigated in federal court.

Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), a member of the select committee, was asked about possible contempt votes during an appearance on CNN’s “State of the Union” on Sunday.

“I think we will probably make a decision this week on our course of conduct with that particular witness and maybe others,” Schiff told our friend Dana Bash.

“I can’t go into what communications that we’re having or haven’t had with particular witnesses. But we are moving with alacrity with anyone who obstructs the committee, and that was certainly the case with Mr. [Steve] Bannon. It will be the case with Mr. Meadows, Mr. Clark or any others.” Bannon, the former Trump aide, has been indicted for contempt of Congress.

→ Nominations: Count on Schumer and Senate Democrats to continue to push for floor votes on Biden’s national security and foreign policy nominations. Several GOP senators have placed holds on an array of Biden nominees to protest his foreign policy positions, leading to “unprecedented delays that continue to threaten our national security and undermine our interests,” according to Foreign Relations Committee Chair Robert Menendez (D-N.J.). Schumer keeps threatening votes at “inconvenient times” including nights and weekends if Republicans don’t agree to speed up the process.

JOIN US FOR A PUNCHBOWL NEWS EVENT!

We have two exciting events in the coming weeks to finish up the year. We brought you almost two dozen editorial conversations in 2021 and are looking forward to more events already in the works for 2022! 

→ Dec. 8: We’ll be talking to Rep. Suzan DelBene (D-Wash.) about the impact of the child tax credit and the earned income tax credit on low-income communities. RSVP here! 

→ Dec. 14: Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) will join us to discuss the future of infrastructure investments and the importance of broadband access to communities across the country. RSVP here!

LEADERSHIP

What the latest MTG episode says about McCarthy’s bid for speaker

Last week, there was a flurry of headlines when Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) suggested that House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy doesn’t have the votes to be speaker.

“We know that Kevin McCarthy has a problem in our conference. He doesn’t have the full support to be speaker," Greene said during a podcast hosted by Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), who is definitely not a McCarthy fan. "He doesn’t have the votes that are there, because there’s many of us that are very unhappy about the failure to hold Republicans accountable, while conservatives like me, Paul Gosar, and many others just constantly take the abuse by the Democrats.” Gosar was recently censured and kicked off his committees by Democrats — like Greene was earlier this year — for posting an animated video where he killed Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.).

However, by Friday, Greene tweeted this:

“I just got off a good call with @GOPLeader.

We spent time talking about solving problems not only in the conference, but for our country.

I like what he has planned ahead.”

Now, this isn’t an endorsement of McCarthy — and that’s worth pointing out. But it does go to show McCarthy is aware of what his members are saying about him and how quickly the California Republican will respond if one of his colleagues publicly criticizes him. And he knows how to work his members, what their issues are and how to address those concerns.

It’s also worth noting that Greene’s new chief of staff is Ed Buckham, who was a former top aide to ex-House Majority Leader Tom DeLay (R-Texas) at one point. Buckham’s lobbying career imploded after his firm was implicated in the Jack Abramoff scandal, and he’s kept a low profile for a long time. Yet Greene and Buckham know how to exploit the “I-won’t-support-McCarthy-for-speaker” issue for press coverage, that’s clear.

Greene’s biggest complaints are that she wants Reps. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) and Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.) — currently serving on the Jan. 6 select committee — kicked out of the Republican Conference. She also wants Rep. John Katko (R-N.Y.) to lose his ranking member post on the Homeland Security Committee. Katko was among 13 Republicans who voted for the recent $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill. Enactment of that legislation was a big political win for President Joe Biden and the Democrats. A number of GOP hardliners wanted Republican lawmakers who voted for it punished. McCarthy hasn’t supported that move, and a resolution to do so was buried internally by the Republican Conference without a vote.

McCarthy is going to have to deal with these public eruptions from the right during the next 13 months, especially as the likelihood of a GOP victory in the 2022 midterms grows. Dealing with lawmakers like Greene is part of what leadership refers to as “member management.” Assuaging their concerns or meeting their demands isn’t always possible, but it’s McCarthy’s job to explain what he’s doing and why. 

In this instance, it seems quite obvious that McCarthy’s view is that Republicans shouldn’t be fighting when the GOP has such a big political advantage over the Democrats. Here’s how McCarthy world views Greene’s complaints: Cheney could easily lose her primary next year and Kinzinger isn’t even running for re-election. Katko will have to make his case in front of the steering committee to be Homeland Security chair if the Republicans win the majority — and that’s not a sure bet.

Of course, there are plenty of complaints about how McCarthy handles MTG and Rep. Lauren Boebert’s (R-Colo.) racist or outrageous behavior. Greene and Boebert have both called the Squad the “Jihad Squad” — principally because Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) is an “Islamic terrorist sympathizer,” according to Greene. Boebert also suggested Omar was going to blow up the Capitol, which is disgusting and untrue. McCarthy called Boebert about the comments. Boebert later apologized and asked Omar for a meeting.

The most important issue for McCarthy — if Republicans win — will be how big a margin of control he has. Then McCarthy can see what kind of deals he has to cut with Greene or other conservatives. Newly elected GOP lawmakers will likely be a strong pocket of support for McCarthy. And as long as he continues to have the backing of Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) and other high-profile incumbents, he should be fine. We just don’t see a big enough block of anti-McCarthy votes to defeat him at this point — as long as he has enough votes to play with in January 2023.

House Republicans will be moving from the minority to the majority if they do win, another huge plus for McCarthy. Members reward their leadership for those kinds of victories. Also, with Biden in the White House, McCarthy’s job as speaker will be easy — just oppose everything the Democrats want and let the House committees investigate the administration at will. Speaker Nancy Pelosi and House Democrats ran that playbook pretty much to perfection in 2019 and 2020.

The big question mark for McCarthy, of course, is former President Donald Trump. McCarthy has had a good relationship with Trump going back to the 2016 presidential campaign. McCarthy was the first top Republican to go to Florida to see the former president when he left the White House in January 2021. McCarthy continues to speak with Trump on a regular basis.

But Trump is unpredictable, and he’ll do whatever he thinks is in his own best interest. If that’s backing McCarthy, fine. If it’s dumping McCarthy, also fine. No one in McCarthy’s orbit has any doubts about that.

→ There’s a new ad running in Pennsylvania, urging people to submit stories about voter fraud. It’s being paid for by Audit the Vote PA, and is running all over the state.

→ Rep. Tom Suozzi will announce whether he’ll run for governor today, per Newsday.

DIGGING DEEPER

A bunch of House Republicans traveled to Glasgow, Scotland, earlier this month to attend the COP26 climate conference — House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy spoke about this publicly. We now know who was behind it. The Climate Solutions Foundation — chaired by former Rep. Carlos Curbelo (R-Fla.) and former Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-La.) — shelled out the funding needed to send several House Republicans overseas, according to documents filed with the House Ethics Committee. 

The Republicans who went include Reps. Andrew Garbarino (N.Y.), Garret Graves (La.), John Curtis (Utah) and Dan Crenshaw (Texas). The group flew business class and was scheduled to meet with various VIPs, including United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby. Here is one filing from the trip, detailing the itinerary and various costs.

FRONTS

MOMENTS

10 a.m.: President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris will get their daily intelligence briefing.

10:45 a.m.: Biden and Harris will get a briefing from the Covid-19 response team about the Omicron variant.

11:45 a.m.: Biden will speak about the Omicron variant from the Roosevelt Room.

1 p.m.: Jen Psaki will brief. 

2 p.m.: Biden will meet with CEOs to discuss “the holiday shopping season and his Administration’s work to move goods to shelves.”

3:45 p.m.: Biden will speak about the supply chain, costs and moving goods around the holiday season.

Week ahead highlights: Tuesday: Biden will travel to Rosemount, Minn., to visit Dakota County Technical College. This is Rep. Angie Craig’s (D-Minn.) district. Wednesday: Biden will commemorate World AIDS Day, and will host a menorah lighting for Hanukkah with Harris and Second Gentleman Doug Emhoff. Thursday: Biden will visit NIH and attend the Christmas tree lighting. Friday: Biden will speak about the November jobs report.

CLIP FILE

NYT

→ “As U.S. Hunts for Chinese Spies, University Scientists Warn of Backlash,” by Amy Qin

→ “As China Speeds Up Nuclear Arms Race, the U.S. Wants to Talk,” by David Sanger and William Broad

→ “Fetal Viability, Long an Abortion Dividing Line, Faces a Supreme Court Test,” by Adam Liptak

→ “Esper Claims Defense Dept. Is Improperly Blocking Parts of His Memoir,” by Maggie Haberman

WaPo

→ “Congress returns to work staring down fiscal deadlines and fights over Biden’s agenda,” by Tony Romm

→ “U.S. will miss electric-vehicle targets without big investments in semiconductor manufacturing, commerce secretary warns,” by Jeanne Whalen

AP

→ “Supreme Court set to take up all-or-nothing abortion fight,” by Mark Sherman

WSJ

→ “Omicron Variant Is Reported in More Countries as Officials Grapple With How to Respond,” by Kate O’Keeffe and Dov Lieber

Bloomberg

→ “China Sends Warplanes Near Taiwan After U.S. Lawmakers Visit,” by Philip Glamann, Cindy Wang, Ben Sharples, Jing Jin, and Lucille Liu

Chicago Tribune

→ “Jussie Smollett to go on trial in alleged hoax attack that once captivated Chicago,” by Megan Crepeau and Jason Meisner

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