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PRESENTED BY

BY JOHN BRESNAHAN, ANNA PALMER AND JAKE SHERMAN
WITH MAX COHEN AND CHRISTIAN HALL

THE TOP

Happy Tuesday morning, everyone. 

We’re going to focus a bit on the debt limit this morning. There’s another potential crisis afoot — government funding runs out on Dec. 3 — but, as we reported in Monday’s AM edition, it seems as if Congress will avert a government shutdown by passing a stopgap spending bill this week.

Remember: Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has warned the federal government could hit the debt limit as early as Dec. 15.

The most important man when it comes to the debt limit is Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. And we caught some one-on-one time with the Kentucky Republican Monday. 

Why McConnell is key to avoiding a default: After first saying he wouldn’t, McConnell helped Senate Democrats lift the debt limit in mid-October. And he holds the keys to a deal this time around as well. Democrats have two basic options to lift the debt limit on their own:

1) They can include a boost of the debt limit as part of a standalone reconciliation bill. Democrats could include the debt-limit provision in the Build Back Better Act package, but that may not get through the Senate until January, so let’s not focus much on that.

2) Democrats could lift the limit with 50 votes if Republicans don’t filibuster the measure. 

During our conversations with McConnell this summer he was clear. The Kentucky Republican wanted Senate Democrats and Majority Leader Chuck Schumer to lift the debt limit on their own without any assistance from the GOP. Of course, that’s not what happened, but that was McConnell’s position for months, and he never wavered.

That’s why our conversation with McConnell was so surprising Monday.  

“We’re still talking about that,” McConnell told us, referring to his conversations with Schumer on the debt limit. 

We pressed him again — were the conversations with Schumer recent? “Yeah, we’re still talking about it.” 

No saber rattling, no threats — nothing. That’s a pretty significant departure from McConnell’s more hardline rhetoric earlier this year, and it signals a very serious effort to come to an agreement and avoid a debt-limit standoff.

There are three tactical paths we see here to lift the debt limit, based on our reporting in the Capitol Monday.

→ The least likely option seems to be that Republicans can just decide to not filibuster a simple debt limit bill. We don’t see this happening. 

→ Senate Minority Whip John Thune floated the idea that the Senate parliamentarian may allow Democrats to suspend the debt limit until a date certain as part of a reconciliation bill. He didn’t sound certain about this, and it’s unclear what the parliamentarian would rule. Conventional wisdom among lawmakers is that any debt limit considering under the reconciliation process would need to specify the monetary amount of the hike, not a suspension as Congress has been using.

→ One idea that seems to be gaining steam is this: Senate Democrats would lift the debt ceiling in a standalone reconciliation bill, which would only require a simple majority. In exchange for Democrats agreeing to this tactic, Republicans would in some way limit their vote-a-rama. Republicans floated this in September and early October, and frankly, it’s the kind of deal that represents a good escape hatch for both parties. This way, Democrats have to put the debt limit in the reconciliation package and Republicans can’t filibuster it. But the GOP also offers to limit the pain by curtailing amendments. This would require universal cooperation from all 50 Senate Republicans, however, and that may be tough.

A note: Yellen and Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell will be in front of the Senate Banking Committee today at 10 a.m. Here’s Yellen’s testimony and here’s a bite of what she’s going to say on the debt limit:

“The first is the debt limit. I cannot overstate how critical it is that Congress address this issue. America must pay its bills on time and in full. If we do not, we will eviscerate our current recovery. In a matter of days, the majority of Americans would suffer financial pain as critical payments, like Social Security checks and military paychecks, would not reach their bank accounts, and that would likely be followed by a deep recession.”

The idea of an easy way out of the debt-limit deadlock got us thinking that — maybe — there’s a sliver of hope that December won’t be so bad at all. Consider this:

→ Government funding could be done in a few days. Congress is getting ready to punt the deadline until the end of January.

→ If there’s a debt limit deal, perhaps that can move quickly. This would be important for the White House and Wall Street, especially with the threat of the omicron variant of Covid looming.

→ If Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) says he won’t vote on the Build Back Better Act until 2022, this would change the timetable for final passage of the bill. There are plenty of other disputes among Democrats — immigration, SALT and Medicare expansion — to ensure it won’t be all Manchin’s fault. Yet if the CR and debt limit are handled fairly quickly, that also frees up more time for the leadership to focus on BBB.

We’re doubtful Senate Democrats get out of the current mess that easily, but hey — it’s worth mentioning.

ATTN KEVIN MCCARTHY

Meadows goes on radio in Bakersfield to criticize GOP leadership in D.C.

Welcome to another chapter of Mark Meadows torturing House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy. 

On Monday, Meadows found himself talking to local conservative talk show host Terry Maxwell on Bakersfield, Calif.’s, KNZR, and the former White House chief of staff dumped all over the GOP congressional leadership in D.C. This was ostensibly part of Meadows’ effort to sell books; Meadows’ new book is out next week. But Bakersfield, of course, is McCarthy’s hometown.

Here’s some Meadows quotes:

→ “I think probably the biggest thing is, is that a lot of times we legislate to the middle and we think that we’ve got to go to our least common denominator and and appease the most moderate Republican member in the House … What I’ve often said is, ‘Listen, let’s start with who we are as conservatives and as constitutional lovers of freedom. And let’s start there and then we work towards the middle.’”

→ “We fight as if we are … in the minority each and every day. But it does take leadership, sometimes it takes boldness, other times, it takes a willingness to go home [and] do what your constituents want you to do.” Meadows was referring to the GOP’s stint in the majority from 2010 to 2018, a period during which McCarthy was the House majority leader and Meadows was his chief irritant.

→ Maxwell said he’s a supporter of Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) or Meadows becoming speaker of the House. Maxwell reminded Meadows that the next speaker does not have to be a member of Congress. Meadows said: “I don’t see that happening. I think generally, the politics are really tilted towards somebody who’s actually serving in Congress." Neither Maxwell nor Meadows said a word about McCarthy becoming speaker if Republicans win in 2022.

The Jan. 6 select committee is considering whether to vote on a criminal contempt referral to the Justice Department over Meadows’ refusal to cooperate with a subpoena. Lawmakers want to know what Meadows knows about the deadly insurrection at the Capitol, including former President Donald Trump’s actions before, during and after the attack.

So far, the select committee has held off going after Meadows in light of Trump’s executive privilege claim for withholding documents from the panel, which is being litigated in court.

FUNDING FIGHT

Advocates still pushing for more pandemic money for the next crisis

Even as the Covid pandemic continues to take nearly nearly 1,000 American lives per day, with the threat of the omicron variant looming, advocates for pandemic preparedness worry Congress is short-changing efforts to get ready for the next disaster.

The House-passed Build Back Better Act includes $3 billion to help the CDC and FDA get ready for future pandemics, but this is only a fraction of what President Joe Biden originally  requested. Preparedness advocates insist they will continue to press the Senate to add more funding to the package. 

“The $3 billion for pandemic preparedness currently in the Build Back Better Act is a critical investment but is only 10% of what the Biden Administration requested,” said Gabe Bankman-Fried, founder and executive director of Guarding Against Pandemics. “As Delta continues to rage and Omicron lurks around the corner, we cannot be slashing pandemic preparedness funding by 90%. We will continue to fight for sufficient funding to make sure this never happens again, both in this bill and beyond.”

The group has new polling showing that majorities of voters support continued investments in pandemic preparedness, even if the scale of federal investment is $30 billion. 

Guarding Against Pandemics has recently registered to lobby Congress for pandemic money, as well.

COMING SOON…THE WORKFORCE WITH ANTONIO TIJERINO

Our fourth and final installment of The Workforce is going live tomorrow. It features Hispanic Heritage Foundation President and CEO Antonio Tijerino. He spoke about the impact of the Latino population on the workforce and how to prepare the next generation to enter the job market with the skills needed for a wide variety of careers. Check back tomorrow for more!

Missed our previous profiles? Check out our first three profiles on Rep. Bobby Scott (D-Va.), Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo and Guild Education CEO Rachel Carlson. 

YOU’RE GOING TO SEE MUCH MORE OF THIS

Lobbying begins on infrastructure implementation

Now that President Joe Biden has signed the $1 trillion infrastructure bill, we’re beginning to see municipalities and transit systems sign up lobbyists to help to get their piece of the federal pie.

On Monday, a filing became public that showed that SEPTA — the transit system in and around Philadelphia — signed a lobbying agreement with Smith Dawson & Andrews to lobby on the implementation of the infrastructure bill. 6K Inc., an engineered materials company, also signed with Smith Dawson & Andrews on infrastructure implementation.

This will be a big business on K Street over the next several months. As the Biden administration has noted, the infrastructure bill is a once-in-a-generation investment in roads and bridges — whether you like it or not. It’s unlikely Congress will find the political will to spend this amount of money again, so everyone has to have their hands in the pot.

HITTING HIM WHERE IT HURTS

Christie says Trump couldn’t get it done

Chris Christie had this to say about former President Donald Trump’s legislative prowess — speaking on Ruthless Podcast to former Mitch McConnell chief of staff Josh Holmes.

HOLMES: “I’ve got to ask one more question that I’ve never heard anybody pose to you, and it goes back to you deciding you weren’t going to become chief of staff. If you were and the election happened November of 2020, do you think you would have made a difference in terms of how the next three months would have laid out for the country? Just by virtue of your sort of leadership and how you sort of work with the staff and defined the issues that were coming along at the time?”

CHRISTIE: “I would have tried, but I fear I would have failed, Josh. And if you need any evidence of that, look at the statement the former president put out yesterday. Right, he put out a statement yesterday still claiming the election was stolen. Now, almost 13 months later, and challenging anybody to debate about it. Like, what are we doing? You know, Joe Biden is trying to spend another two trillion dollars. We’re one Joe Manchin blink away from that happening, right? He’s already spent 1.9 trillion on COVID that he didn’t need. And to the extent that he did need it, he spent it ineffectively. Inflation’s up. China is on the run and causing us all kinds of problems around the world. Russia is inching towards Ukraine. The Iranians are inching towards a nuclear weapon. And we’re talking about the former president of United States, who’s ostensibly the leader of the Republican Party, is still talking about an election that happened 13 months ago that he lost, that he definitively,  provably lost. And so I don’t think if I’d been standing there, I would’ve had any more luck than Pat Cipollone, the White House counsel had, or Bill Barr, the attorney general. And I and I just think that it’s to make yourself feel like you’re even more important than you are to think that you could have stopped it. At the end of the day, the president of the United States makes these decisions. And it is clear that in his mind, he is still thinking this is something that we should be talking about rather than going after Joe Biden. I mean, he’s sending out press releases when Adam Kinzinger says he’s not going to run, right? And says to two down, eight to go. That’s what we’re spending our time on? He’s spending his time trying to recruit a candidate to run against Brian Kemp because he actually said that Stacey Abrams would be a better governor than Brian Kemp? In what world that you and I inhabit would Stacey Abrams be a better governor and Brian Kemp? I mean, so my problem with saying that I could have made a difference, which I always like to believe I could, is I would have to say that with all the evidence notwithstanding.”

HOLMES: “Yeah. Right, right, right. You suspend everything you know about the situation.”

CHRISTIE: “We’re watching it happen right now. I mean–you know, so for me, I think it turned out to be the right decision because I think it just would have led to, you know, I think, an ugly breakup at the end and not being able–I think I would have been able to marginally help early. But as time went on, I saw what happened with most people who was in that job or some other jobs. They just were given less and less freedom to do what needed to be done on behalf of the president and the country. And that’s a problem. that management style is a problem. I have no problem in the main with the policies that were followed by the Trump administration that they attempted to implement. I really think they were very, very solid. And you see in the book a lot of the things that I write about in the book are things that the Trump administration either did or tried to do that I’m fine with. That’s not the point. The point is you’ve got to be able to get it done. And we didn’t get a lot of stuff done. Obamacare is still there, for instance, Like let’s just go through the list of things. The wall isn’t built. Obamacare is still there. We didn’t get an infrastructure package done that we wanted, so now we’re stuck with theirs. There are real life ramifications for these things, and that’s why I write the book, because if we want to be a force for good, which I think we can be, then we’ve got to get our act together and stop looking backwards. Stop worrying about the last election. Let’s start worrying about the next election–and the next election in 2022, and we better at least win the House and get some more of these governorships. Get back up over 30 governorships, then you start to see things really start to change.”

Christie must not have read the “Art of the Deal!”

FRONTS

MOMENTS

9:30 a.m.: President Joe Biden will get his daily intelligence briefing.

10:45 a.m.: Biden will sign several bills into law:  “Protecting Moms Who Served Act of 2021,” “Hire Veteran Health Heroes Act of 2021,” “A bill to require the Comptroller General of the United States to conduct a study on disparities associated with race and ethnicity with respect to certain benefits administered by the Secretary of Veterans Affairs, and for other purposes,” and “Colonel John M. McHugh Tuition Fairness for Survivors Act of 2021.”

11:30 a.m.: Biden will leave the White House for Andrews, where he will fly to Minneapolis. Jen Psaki will brief en route to the Twin Cities.

11:35 a.m.: Vice President Kamala Harris will swear in Jonathan Eric Kaplan to be ambassador to Singapore and David Cohen as ambassador to Canada.

12:30 p.m.: The Covid-19 team will brief.

2:25 p.m.: Biden will arrive in Minneapolis, and travel to Dakota County Technical College, where he will arrive at 3:50 p.m.

3:30 p.m.: Biden will speak about the infrastructure law.

5:45 p.m.: Biden will leave Minneapolis for Andrews, where he’ll arrive at 7:45 p.m.

8:05 p.m.: Biden will arrive at the White House.

CLIP FILE

NYT

→ “With Scant Information on Omicron, Biden Turned to Travel Ban to Buy Time,” by Michael Shear and Sheryl Stolberg

→ “Dozens of Former Afghan Security Forces Dead or Missing Under Taliban, Report Says,” by Sharif Hassan 

→ “Jake Sullivan, Biden’s Adviser, a Figure of Fascination and Schadenfreude,” by Mark Leibovich

WaPo

→ “Chris Cuomo sought ‘intel’ on media coverage about accusations against his brother, text messages show,” by Josh Dawsey, Michael Scherer and Jeremy Barr

WSJ

→ “CDC Says Everyone 18 and Older Should Get Covid-19 Booster Due to Omicron Variant,” by Brianna Abbott

AP

→ “Appeals court to weigh Trump arguments to withhold records,” by Nomaan Merchant

→ “Biden vaccine rule for health workers blocked in 10 states,” by David Lieb in Jefferson City, Mo.

CNN

→  “Boebert and Omar have contentious call amid backlash for anti-Muslim remarks,” by Annie Grayer

Bloomberg

→ “Moderna’s Concerns About Omicron Outlook Spark Market Slump,” by Michelle Fay Cortez

Politico

→ “Democrats’ December dread builds after defense stumble,” by Burgess Everett and Marianne Levine

A WORTHWHILE CAUSE

Our friend Jennifer Steinhauer of the New York Times sent along this very worthwhile charity for you to consider this holiday season. Give back. It will help you feel good.

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Editorial photos provided by Getty Images