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PRESENTED BY

BY JOHN BRESNAHAN, ANNA PALMER AND JAKE SHERMAN
WITH MAX COHEN AND CHRISTIAN HALL

THE TOP

Happy Friday morning. 

Just before 9:30 p.m. last night, the Senate approved a stopgap spending bill that will keep the government funded until Feb. 18. The vote was strong — 69 to 28 — meaning 19 Republicans joined with all Democrats to avoid a shutdown. The Senate also rejected a Republican amendment that would have barred private-sector vaccine mandates. 

The funding bill will head to President Joe Biden’s desk for his signature well ahead of the midnight funding deadline tonight.

The point we’ve been making all week is that a shutdown was never truly close, despite some of the most heated partisan rhetoric and breathless media coverage. It didn’t help either side politically, and it was clear that the vast majority of lawmakers in both chambers had the same view. Our reporting from inside the Capitol made it clear that Sens. Mike Lee (R-Utah) and Roger Marshall’s (R-Kan.) demand was easily solved by an amendment vote — and that’s what happened. No one was willing to take this to the brink, and if you understand Congress, that was abundantly clear for days.

Sinema tells colleagues BBB won’t pass until after Christmas

News: Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) has been privately telling colleagues she doesn’t believe the Build Back Better Act will pass until after Christmas, according to multiple sources who have spoken to her.

This isn’t Sinema’s request or hope, but rather her prediction, the sources told us of Sinema’s remarks. The Arizona Democrat’s office declined to comment.

But understand why this is important: Sinema and Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) are the two most critical Democratic votes on the BBB. Manchin is publicly saying he thinks a vote may have to wait until 2022. Now Sinema is privately echoing the same message to her Senate colleagues. This puts pressure on Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, who has repeatedly said the chamber can finish work on the legislation in just a few weeks. 

Sinema ducked a question on BBB timing during a CNN interview on Thursday. The first-term senator also wouldn’t commit to voting for the package, which is the linchpin of President Joe Biden’s legislative agenda.

"I am always prepared to vote and to vote for what’s right for the interests of Arizona," Sinema said.

Our pal Manu Raju of CNN reported late last night that Manchin is saying the same thing as Sinema. Manchin told Manu last night that if Schumer were to put the bill on the floor he “wouldn’t have any idea how I’m going to vote until I walk in.”

The Christmas timeline for BBB is already looking in peril. Next week will be a critical one for Schumer and the White House on BBB. The Senate parliamentarian is still reviewing the $1.7 trillion House-passed bill as part of the “Byrd Bath,” and rulings are expected on immigration provisions and other issues. 

And Senate Democrats remain divided over some key elements of the package, such as the state-and-local tax deduction (SALT) and Medicare expansion. The House approved a provision raising the cap on the deduction from $10,000 to $80,000. Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Robert Menendez (D-N.J.) are working on several proposals to change the House SALT language, although they don’t agree on what to do with the revenue that would bring in. Republicans, meanwhile, continue to bash Democrats over the issue, calling the House initiative a give away to blue state millionaires.

UP NEXT

Schumer and McConnell plot NDAA-debt limit package

A few weeks ago, we reported that House and Senate leaders were discussing trying to combine the annual defense policy bill (the National Defense Authorization Act) and the debt limit. But by last weekend, it had seemed objections from House Democratic leaders had prevailed and the plan was dropped. There are people in the White House who think this is a bad strategy too, our sources over there tell us.

But as of yesterday, this idea appears to be back on the table. There are many reasons why this is a risky strategic play, yet Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell are considering it. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has warned the debt limit must be raised by Dec. 15.

The NDAA stalled in the 50-50 Senate this week, with Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) and other Republicans refusing to support efforts to fast track the measure. Rubio wants a vote on his Uyghur slave labor amendment. Other Republicans want votes on anti-vaccine mandate amendments.

However, with time running out to get the NDAA done, the chairs and ranking members of the House and Senate Armed Services committees are working on a compromise proposal that would be taken up by the House next week once a deal is reached. This revised NDAA package would then be sent over to the Senate. A similar mechanism has been used in the past to overcome impasses in the Senate on the NDAA legislation, which has been approved by Congress every year since 1961.

Schumer and McConnell have floated attaching the debt-limit increase to this compromise NDAA package. That would allow the Senate to take up the issue before the Dec. 15 deadline. You will hear leadership make the case that the debt limit is a national security issue — and it is, that’s fair.

But a number of Republicans who’d otherwise support the NDAA would vote against the Pentagon policy bill if the debt-limit provision was included. We checked in with GOP sources in the House and Senate yesterday on what they thought of this Schumer-McConnell plan, and every single one of them said it was a bad idea. 

We also checked in with House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, who had just come from a meeting with McConnell on the issue. “I don’t think that would pass,” McCarthy insisted.

House Armed Services Committee Chair Adam Smith (D-Wash.), who is part of the bicameral negotiations, acknowledged that he was aware of “all the talk out there” on the debt limit, although he said that it wasn’t formally part of the discussions at this point.

There are some legislative maneuvers here that could be used to make it easier to pass an NDAA-debt limit package in the House. For example, leaders could divide the question in the House. In other words, they can have a vote on the NDAA and then the debt limit and combine them both into one package after members approved both separately. We still think this carries significant risk.

JOB MOVES

A few important job moves you need to know about:

→ Adam Elias joined Bank of America’s government relations team this week. He will be responsible for the House Financial Services and Senate Banking committees. Elias has been the head of federal government affairs for Barclays for the last three years. He was previously chief of staff for Rep. Bill Foster (D-Ill.).

→ Lindsey Kerr has joined The Messina Group as senior vice president. Kerr was previously chief of staff for Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.).

FRONTS

MOMENTS

9:30 a.m.: President Joe Biden will get his intelligence briefing.

10:15 a.m.: Biden will speak about the November jobs report.

11:30 a.m.: House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy will hold his weekly news conference.

12:15 p.m.: Biden will have lunch with Vice President Kamala Harris.

1:30 p.m.: Jen Psaki will brief.

5:30 p.m.: Biden will leave for Camp David.

CLIP FILE

NYT

→ “How the Politics of Abortion Are Poised to Intensify,” by Lisa Lerer and Jeremy Peters

→ “In Biden’s Plan for Free Rapid Tests, Legwork Will Be Required,” by Sarah Kliff and Reed Abelson

WaPo

→ “GOP tactics herald a grim new era of governing for Biden and Democrats,” by Mike DeBonis

→ “More Democratic senators are willing to weigh changes to Supreme Court,” by Seung Min Kim

WSJ

→ “Bridgewater CEO David McCormick Tells Staff He Is Close to Decision on Senate Run,” by Juliet Chung and Rob Copeland

AP

→ “Supreme Court abortion hearing raises questions for senators,” by Lisa Mascaro

Politico

→ “Feds could release ‘alternative’ Mueller report soon,” by Josh Gerstein

→ “Senate Republicans quietly buck Trump in Alabama race,” by Natalie Allison

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Editorial photos provided by Getty Images