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PRESENTED BY

BY JOHN BRESNAHAN, ANNA PALMER AND JAKE SHERMAN
WITH MAX COHEN AND CHRISTIAN HALL

THE TOP

Happy Wednesday morning. We have a special edition this morning – The Tally on the 2022 battle for control of the House – but first a bit of news.  

AP: "National Guard to help DC control traffic for truck convoys," by Ashraf Khalil and Lolita Baldor

Kyiv wants more sanctions. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba tweeted this at 3:21 a.m. this morning. “To stop Putin from further aggression, we call on partners to impose more sanctions on Russia now. First decisive steps were taken yesterday, and we are grateful for them. Now the pressure needs to step up to stop Putin. Hit his economy and cronies. Hit more. Hit hard. Hit now.”

Kuleba is likely to get some of what he wants. Biden is expected to announce more sanctions today aimed at Russian President Vladimir Putin and his inner circle, and lawmakers in both parties are promising to go even further once Congress returns next week. Japan, Canada and Australia have joined Western governments with their own sanctions. The European Union is finalizing a sanctions package too.

However, none of this is having any impact yet, on Russia yet as troop deployments continue. The crisis is weighing on world financial markets, and it could cause higher prices here in the United States in both the short and long run. Ukraine has called up its reservists and warned its citizens to leave Russia. Russian shelling continued throughout Tuesday night, according to media reports.

Fronts

And now for The Tally, captained by Max Cohen, with Christian Hall, Jake and Bres.

SPECIAL EDITION

The Tally: 2022 House outlook

Welcome to a special Tally edition of Punchbowl News AM.

The Tally is Punchbowl News’ coverage of the year’s congressional elections. Today we’re focusing on the battle for control of the House of Representatives. Based on current trends and historical patterns, the House is likely to change hands. The 50-50 Senate is a jump ball, as well, and we’ll have more on that soon.

We all know the historical statistics. The president’s party nearly always suffers big losses in the first midterm election. After World War II, the average loss for the president’s party is 26 House seats. And wave elections come when a president’s popularity is underwater. See 1994, 2010 and 2018 for proof of that.

With President Joe Biden’s approval rating hovering in the low 40s, the Covid-19 pandemic dragging on for a third year and inflation at a four-decade high, Republicans believe all the ingredients are in place for a red wave.

Thirty House Democrats already have retired or announced they won’t run for re-election in November, the largest Democratic exodus since 1992. Roughly half of those seats will probably stay in Democrats’ hands. But the battle to retain the others will drain the party’s resources and those seats may flip to the GOP anyway. Democrats also have only a razor-thin four-seat margin. So the contest for control of the House is basically a toss-up to begin with, even before one factors in all the dynamics that favor Republicans.

At the same time, House Democrats are adamant they’re being underestimated. Democrats had a better reapportionment cycle than expected, Covid finally seems to be receding and if members just start talking more about the party’s achievements – several big-ticket bills, such as the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan or the $1 trillion infrastructure package – Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s caucus insists they can buck history and hold onto their majority.

In today’s edition, we’ll dig into all of these dynamics. We spoke to some of the most endangered House Democrats about how they plan to survive in 2022. We also talked to the campaign chiefs – NRCC Chair Tom Emmer of Minnesota and DCCC Chair Sean Patrick Maloney of New York – about how they see the cycle unfolding. And we will run through some of the other key dynamics lawmakers face this fall, such as member-on-member primaries.

We – Bres, Jake, Max and Christian – really enjoyed working on this, so we hope you enjoy it and, as always, please reach out to with any questions, comments or insights.

THE TARGETS

To Biden, or not to Biden

President Joe Biden’s poll numbers are staggeringly low after 13 months in office, verging into Donald Trump territory. So it stands to reason that the most endangered House Democrats don’t want to talk about the president’s unpopularity. Eleven of the Frontline Democrats that face the highest odds of losing reelection all gave us the same response about Biden: They’re focused on local, not national, politics in 2022. 

None of the Democrats we interviewed said they would turn down a Biden visit to their district. But when prompted about their messaging, these Frontliners said their route to reelection had little to do with Biden or even Washington. One told us that they will run as a mayor of all the towns in their district.

Whether they like it or not, however, midterm elections are historically dictated by the sitting president’s standing with the American public. And with Biden’s approval ratings solidly underwater, it may be wishful thinking for Democrats to believe they can separate themselves from an unpopular president.

Here’s what the vulnerable Democrats, hailing from New Jersey to California and everywhere in between, told us:

→ Rep. Susan Wild (Pa.)

How is Biden’s unpopularity affecting your reelection? “The reason I think we’re going to keep the House majority is because I think that the Frontliners know how to work their districts really well. And we do keep it very local. I know I do. And I know all my friends who are Frontliners do. And so while I am concerned about the president’s numbers, I don’t see them as being dispositive…  I don’t see them as something that drags me down. Having said that, obviously, you have to work like hell, when you can’t just ride somebody’s coattails…

“I wouldn’t want President Biden to have to run for reelection right now. But I don’t see it as being a huge drag on those of us in tough districts.”

Would you welcome a Biden visit? “Anytime. I always welcome the president to the district, he’s been to my district, I hope he comes back. We have had a number of Cabinet officers who are very well received. I will say this about the Cabinet – it’s a younger, more dynamic group than we’ve seen in a long time.”

→ Rep. Josh Gottheimer (N.J.): 

How is Biden’s unpopularity affecting your reelection? “I’m focused on fighting for Jersey and I’m not worried about national politics… If you do this long enough, these numbers go up and down… I think a lot of this national stuff is stuff that you guys liked to talk about up here –  that is less of an issue back home.”

Would you welcome a Biden visit? “I think if he wants to come and help deliver, help fix another bridge, if he’s got resources, then I’ll take anyone to come, if they got resources to help my district.”

→ Rep. Dan Kildee (Mich.)

How is Biden’s unpopularity affecting your reelection? “He’s being held to a standard for a full grown adult, as opposed to his predecessor – he was held to the toddler standard. So it is a harder environment, no question about it. But for those of us who’ve done this, when we’re running back home, it’s us. It’s like running for mayor in every small town in my communities. They know me, and I’m comfortable with that.”

Would you welcome Biden to your district? “For sure.”

→ Rep. Mike Levin (Calif.)

How is Biden’s unpopularity affecting your reelection? “Well, I’m focused on our district. I’m focused on the needs and concerns of our constituents. For me, it’s hyperlocal.”

Would you welcome Biden to your district? “Of course. I am a strong supporter of the president. I was proud to vote for him. I’d be obviously very excited if he ever decided to come to Southern California.”

→ Rep. Abigail Spanberger (Va.)

How is Biden’s unpopularity affecting your reelection? “I represent my district. I’m working on legislation that matters to my district. And that’s what I’m focused on… I’ve been talking about how important things like the American Rescue Plan have been, the bipartisan Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act.”

Would you welcome Biden to your district? “I would welcome a visit from Biden to my district.” [Biden visited Culpeper, Va., shortly after this interview, and Spanberger appeared with him.].

→ Rep. Elaine Luria (Va.)

How is Biden’s unpopularity affecting your reelection? “My messaging is the same all the time. Our number one priority is national defense and that is the thing that I focus on the most. And I’ve been very openly critical of this administration’s budget that they sent over last year, a lack of emphasis on defense.”

Would you welcome Biden to your district? “President Biden’s come down a couple of times. President Trump came down, Vice President Pence. I actually have participated in events with all of them in my district. And I think it is important that the president regardless of who it is, or which party, gets around the country and visits people and hears from. If the president comes to visit my district, I will be there with them.”

→ Rep. Mikie Sherrill (N.J.)

How is Biden’s unpopularity affecting your reelection? “I’m just focused on delivering for the district. There’s a lot of great stuff in the [American Rescue Plan]. Mayors are starting to spend that on local projects. And of course, the infrastructure bill funds the Gateway Tunnel Project, which I’ve been fighting for for years now.”

→ Rep. Andy Kim (N.J.)

How is Biden’s unpopularity affecting your reelection? “It’s not just about the approval ratings…  Very few people in my district are actually paying attention to just the ins and outs of what’s happening in D.C. every single day. As long as I keep doing what I’ve been doing, which is focusing on the issues that they care about, I think we’ll have a good chance here in my district.”

→ Rep. Steven Horsford (Nev.)

How is Biden’s unpopularity affecting your reelection? “The only things my voters are focused on back home are crushing the virus, getting our economy back on track, and making sure we help small businesses stay open and keep their employees.”

→ Rep. Susie Lee (Nev.)

How is Biden’s unpopularity affecting your reelection? “I focus on local issues and what I’ve done for our economy with the American Rescue Plan. You know, our economy’s doing better than it has been and childhood poverty has been cut in half. Businesses are starting up. And so that’s what I focus on.”

Would you welcome Biden to your district? “Yeah.”

→ Rep. Elissa Slotkin (Mich.)

How is Biden’s unpopularity affecting your reelection? “No matter what, when one party holds the White House, midterms are tough for the other party. And that is even more true when your president has low approval ratings. You have to establish yourself as something separate from what people see on TV, and that’s difficult. But that’s our job. And I’m only one of five Democrats running in 2022 that represents a Trump-voting district. I’ve always had to separate myself from the party from party leadership.”

THE INTERVIEW

Maloney: Frontliners aren’t avoiding Biden

The DCCC is run by Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney, who represents the outer reaches of the New York City exurbs. Maloney, 55, won a seat from a Republican in 2012 – two years into the last House Republican majority – and he’s climbed the House Democratic leadership ladder since then. In 2017, Maloney wrote an “autopsy” report of the DCCC’s failures in the previous cycle, but the analysis was mostly kept confidential. Now “SPM” is running the House Democrats’ campaign committee for what may be the most difficult election cycle in more than a decade.

The central question for Maloney is this: How do Democrats run with Biden’s approval numbers flagging? We asked him about that.

Punchbowl News: I’m trying to do a story on Biden’s impact on your Frontliners.

SPM: “You guys love this story.”

Punchbowl News: Well, it is the story of the election, right? This is the big dynamic of the election.

SPM: I’m giving you a hard time. The point is that right now, I don’t have a Frontliner that doesn’t want Joe Biden in the district. That’s just a fact. Go find one. I mean, if there’s one, I don’t know about it.”

Punchbowl News: Ok, Gottheimer. 

SPM: “Ask him. I don’t think he would say that. I think he would welcome him to talk about the Gateway Tunnel.”

Punchbowl News: Luria. Spanberger. 

SPM: “I think you would find that every one of them would be happy to stand next to the president, talk about infrastructure, and talk about the achievements of the first year.”

Punchbowl News: Okay, well, what about inflation? Mask mandates?

SPM: “Listen, I’m not saying everything’s right in the world. I’m just saying that I don’t have a Frontliner who would not gladly talk about infrastructure investments in their districts with the president on a stage. Gottheimer would love to talk about the Gateway Tunnel. That’s a huge win for his district and for all northern New Jersey.”

Punchbowl News: But traditionally a president in his first midterm with poor approval ratings is going to be an anchor on the rest of the party. 

SPM: “No, that’s a totally fair starting point. What I’m telling you is I don’t see it. And I was a Frontliner, right, before I ran the Frontline program. And what I can tell you is, I’d love to have Joe Biden in my district right now. It would not have been true in every cycle before. You’re absolutely right.”

“And I think it’s actually one of the wrinkles in some of the data we see, which is [Biden] actually remains very personally popular. And people see him as a good, decent guy. Doesn’t mean they’re happy with everything in the world right now. There’s a lot of negative stuff out there with the pandemic still and other things. But we don’t see Joe Biden being a liability to our Frontliners. Not at all. And I’d be very curious if you could find any one of them who would not gladly say ‘Sure, come talk about the bridge we’re building.’ I just don’t see it.”

THE INTERVIEW

Emmer on Biden, Trump and House Republicans

Minnesota Rep. Tom Emmer is in his second term atop the National Republican Congressional Committee, which serves as one of the two nerve centers for House Republican politics. (The other is the Congressional Leadership Fund, which we’ve written about a good deal in these pages.)

Emmer, 60, is a burly man with a matter-of-fact demeanor. He’s relentlessly on message and focused on one goal – winning the House majority in November. And when we visited with Emmer in the NRCC’s Capitol Hill headquarters earlier this month, he said this about the current political environment:

“Well, I wish the election were today. Today, Republicans are leading on all the issues that are most important. Inflation and the economy. The crime wave across this country, which no matter how much they want to deny it, [Democrats] created. The mess at the border. The list goes on. Every issue that is of greatest importance, especially to the voters that are going to matter in these swing districts, we’re in complete alignment.” 

Overall, Emmer says he feels good about many of the dynamics in 2022. But what keeps him up at night? The same thing that many Republicans complain to us about off the record – “Overconfidence and complacency.”

But the Republicans’ opportunity is quite expansive, Emmer said. The NRCC has recently expanded its battlefield to 70 seats. That’s overly optimistic, of course, yet the committee’s job is to make Democrats sweat and spend money.

Emmer also says he’s confident that Hispanic voters are moving toward the GOP permanently, continuing a trend from the 2020 cycle

“We look at anyone in a district that Joe Biden won by 12 points or less as vulnerable,” Emmer told us. 

Emmer has some interesting data to back this up. He said in a recent nationwide battleground poll, the top two issues for both Republicans and independents are inflation/economy and crime. The top two issues for Democrats are climate change and Covid. “At least right now,” Emmer said, “the alignment is with the Republican message.” 

Emmer is someone who seems to have lots of complaints about the past. The NRCC used to have a wall filled with photos of all the former committee chairs. He took that down because there were too many old white men. “Celebrate the history” but “[look] to the future,” the Minnesota Republican said.

Emmer also said he thinks the NRCC has been subpar in the past, running ads with cookie-cutter messages that have allowed Democrats to escape defeat. 

“They would just plug the new names and run the same, essentially, same commercial,” Emmer said of previous NRCC efforts. “We’re going to be honest, but we’re going to be brutally honest. They’ve been lying about our guys for years. We’re going to figure out what is the message that sells how they voted, and we’re going to use that in the district where [it] works.”

This time around, Emmer says the NRCC has beefed up its research department and launched a significant effort to identify Republican donors who had given to other campaign efforts but never to the House committee. That project yielded them 6,000 new donors, Emmer said.

The big variable hanging out over the 2022 cycle for Republicans is former President Donald Trump. Trump has a stranglehold over the party, and nowhere is that more evident than in the House GOP. We asked Emmer how concerned he is about Trump and the former president’s relentless focus on bogus claims that he won the 2020 election.

“Look, our job is very simple,” Emmer said. “It’s to win races. We focus on November of 2022. The former president – he’s a private citizen, he can do whatever he wants. We definitely are going to celebrate the policies of the previous administration that were enormously popular with the voters. Putting America first, American energy independence, having a secure southern border  – these things really mattered. And yeah, I think those are going to play well again in this cycle. But whatever the former president does in the campaign realm, that’s his choice to make and his to do. We’re focused on what we need to do to win a majority.”

A lot of Republicans ask Emmer how big he thinks their majority can be. And Emmer is consistent in what he tells his colleagues.

“If we win 18 seats, it’s a larger majority than 1994,” Emmer noted. “If we win 30 seats, it’s larger than 2010. And I think the number is 32 – but correct me if I’m wrong – If we win 32 seats, it’s the largest Republican majority in 100 years.”

THE PRIMARIES

The nasty House primary season is well underway. Redistricting has led to a number of member-on-member primaries and, as always, these are pretty brutal affairs.

Below, we look at the six most interesting House primaries to see what the races can tell us about the future of both parties.

ON THE RIGHT

Inside the GOP’s intra-party fights

The overview: This race features the most prominent anti-Trump Republican versus a hand-picked Trump candidate in the reddest of red states.

→ The leadership

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy and House Republican Conference Chair Elise Stefanik both endorsed Hageman last week. Nine months ago, Cheney and McCarthy served together in the House GOP leadership. Now they’re openly warring. Former President Donald Trump, of course, is backing Hageman as part of his revenge tour against Republicans who voted for impeachment following the Jan. 6 insurrection.

→ The money picture.

Cheney is handily outraising Hageman. The incumbent is posting eye-popping fundraising numbers, raising more than $2 million to Hageman’s $443,460 in Q4. Cheney also leads Hageman by a wide margin in cash on hand — $4.7 million to $381,164.

Corporate PACs are backing Cheney in large numbers. Last quarter, the incumbent received $5,000 from UnitedHealth Group PAC, Mondelēz International PAC, FedEx Corporation PAC, Dell Technologies PAC and Hewlett Packard PAC, among others. Notably, former President George W. Bush and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush have both contributed thousands of dollars to Cheney.

Hageman is getting backing from Trump and his allies. Save America PAC, Trump’s political arm, donated $5,000 to Hageman last quarter. Conservative megadonor Elizabeth Uihlein and Jim Lamon, a candidate in the Arizona Senate GOP primary, both donated $2,900.

→ The message.

Hageman is attacking Cheney for siding with “Nancy Pelosi and the radical liberals” in opposing Trump. She also labels Cheney a carpetbagger who is more northern Virginia than Wyoming – Cheney went to high school in McLean, Va. And the incumbent also draws heat for not sitting on the House Natural Resources Committee — a vital committee for the rural state.

In her national messaging, Cheney has railed against Trump while maintaining she is a “constitutional conservative.” Cheney ran a Christmas television ad in Wyoming that didn’t focus on politics, but instead featured smiling pictures of families. 

→ The visitors.

There have not been any high-profile or important visits to the district yet. Following the impeachment vote in late January 2021, Trump ally Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) visited Wyoming to rally against Cheney.

The overview: In deep red West Virginia, a battle for the future of the GOP is playing out between Rep. David McKinley (who voted for infrastructure and the Jan. 6 independent commission) and Rep. Alex Mooney (a Freedom Caucus member endorsed by Donald Trump). 

→ The leadership.

Trump endorsed Mooney but the House Republican leadership hasn’t weighed in. The NRCC does not involve itself in primaries and we cannot imagine leadership will get involved here.

→ The money picture.

McKinley outraised Mooney by a wide margin in Q4, $1.1 million to $200,186. However, McKinley loaned his campaign $500,000 of his own money. Mooney leads in cash on hand, with $2.3 million compared to McKinley’s $1.6 million.

McKinley received $5,800 from No Labels Problem Solvers PAC and $5,000 each from a number of PACs: National Automobile Dealers Association PAC, IBEW PAC, International Union of Operating Engineers PAC and Occidental Petroleum Corporation PAC. His campaign’s biggest donation was a $10,000 check from the American Nurses Association PAC.

Mooney boasts far fewer corporate donors, but he received financial backing from Trump’s Save America PAC and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee’s Huck PAC ($5,000 each). Plus, the House Freedom Fund, which supports House Freedom Caucus members, contributed to Mooney.

→ The message.

McKinley is attacking Mooney as a corrupt, carpetbagging politician from Maryland. McKinley’s ads consistently focus on the Office of Congressional Ethics investigations into Mooney’s campaign. OCE concluded that Mooney likely improperly used campaign funds for personal expenses such as meals at Chick-fil-A and plane tickets. 

McKinley also lambasts Mooney’s former role as the chair of the Maryland Republican Party. McKinley’s campaign accuses Mooney of only moving to West Virginia because he stood the best chance of winning election.

For his part, Mooney hammers home the message that McKinley is a RINO — Republican In Name Only — because of McKinley’s support for the bipartisan infrastructure law and a bipartisan commission to investigate the Jan. 6 insurrection. Mooney also reminds voters that he’s the Trump-endorsed candidate in the race.

The overview: Rep. Rodney Davis, who bills himself as one of the most bipartisan Republicans in the House, will face off against Rep. Mary Miller, a Trump-endorsed freshman Freedom Caucus member who gained notoriety for saying “Hitler was right on one thing.” 

→ The leadership.

House Republican leadership has not endorsed in the race, but former President Donald Trump endorsed Miller. 

→ The money picture.

Miller raised a paltry $164,713 in Q4 in comparison to Davis’ $420,699 haul. Davis is also outpacing Miller in cash on hand, $1.2 million to $414,795.

Leadership is making its preference for Davis known in fundraising. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy’s joint fundraising PAC, Take Back the House 2022, donated a sizable $33,242 to Davis in the last quarter — and gave nothing to Miller. Miller did receive $9,185 from the House Freedom Fund, the fundraising arm of the House Freedom Caucus.

Davis also received more donations from corporate PACs, bringing in $5,000 each from Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings Inc. PAC, National Pest Management Association PAC and McDonald’s Corporation PAC.

→ The message.

Davis presents himself as a conservative who gets things done and boasts the endorsements of a plethora of local officials, including Illinois GOP Rep. Darin LaHood. On the attack side, Davis slams Miller as a “Chicagoland” carpetbagger. Davis blasts Miller’s vote against the annual defense authorization bill as opposing a pay raise for troops. He also chides Miller for approvingly quoting Hitler, which is not something you often see in congressional races.

Miller is heavily leaning into Trump’s endorsement, featuring the former president’s backing in almost all of her ads. Miller’s campaign paints Davis as one of the “weak, timid RINOs who cozy up to Nancy Pelosi and Liz Cheney.”  

The Freedom Caucus member also turns Davis’ pride in being one of the most bipartisan members of Congress into an attack line. In campaign ads, Davis is pictured hugging Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) in an effort to tie Davis to the anti-Trump wing of the party.

ON THE LEFT

The Democratic Party contests worth watching

The overview: Scandal-plagued progressive freshman Rep. Marie Newman is taking on Rep. Sean Casten, who beat a GOP incumbent in 2018.

→ The leadership.

Newman picked up a crucial endorsement from the Congressional Progressive Caucus. She has also been endorsed by Washington State Rep. Pramila Jayapal, chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus. 

→ The money picture.

Casten has $1 million more cash on hand than Newman in the last fundraising report, $1.58 million to $573,000.

Newman has been forced to shell out tens of thousands of dollars in legal fees to cover the cost of an ethics investigation. The House Ethics Committee is reviewing whether to launch a full-scale probe to investigate if Newman improperly signed a contract promising Iymen Chehade, a rival candidate, a job in 2020 if she won. Chehade was on Newman’s campaign’s payroll last year. Newman has denied any wrongdoing, but the headlines have been brutal for her.

→ The message.

Newman is a member of the Congressional Progressive Caucus’ leadership. Casten is a member of the New Democratic Coalition. This primary is shaping up to be a face off between the moderates and progressive wings of the Democratic party. 

Newman is an outspoken progressive who beat conservative Democratic incumbent Rep. Daniel Lipinski in the 2020 primary. She’s been focusing her campaign message on the economy, climate and health care. 

Although Casten and Newman have very similar progressive voting records, Casten bills himself as more in tune with moderates due to his background as a former business executive. Casten has been a strong advocate in fighting climate change. He serves on both the House Select Committee on the Climate Crisis and the newly formed Sustainable Energy and Environment Coalition task force.

The overview: One of the last remaining conservative Democrats, Rep. Henry Cuellar, faces a reinvigorated progressive challenge from Jessica Cisneros, who challenged him in a primary last cycle. The race has been jolted by an FBI investigation into Cuellar’s campaign finances.

→ The leadership.

In a far cry from the full-throated endorsements given to Cuellar just two years ago, the House Democratic leadership is staying away from this south Texas primary. Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Majority Leader Steny Hoyer and then-Appropriations Committee Chair Nita Lowey all campaigned for Cuellar last cycle. But given the ongoing FBI investigation into Cuellar’s campaign finances – which included a search of Cuellar’s home and campaign office –-  top House Democrats are steering clear of this race.

In a telling sign, Team Blue PAC — a group designed to protect Democratic incumbents against insurgent challengers — isn’t taking a stance on the Cuellar-Cisneros race.

→ The money picture.

Through Cuellar’s campaign committee and separate Texas First PAC, he reeled in $775,616 in the final quarter of 2021, a large lead over Cisneros’ $361,723 haul. Plus, Cuellar leads by a wider margin in his campaign’s cash on hand – $2.3 million to $494,058.

Cuellar’s top donors include Pro-Israel America PAC, John Deere PAC, AT&T/WarnerMedia Federal PAC and National Association of Realtors — all of whom cut $5,000 checks to Cuellar last quarter.

Cisneros’ top funders were Emily’s List, who donated $8,300 to her campaign in the fourth quarter, and the progressive PAC Lead the Way 2022, who donated $14,670.

→ The message.

Cuellar’s recent ads have gone sharply negative against Cisneros and are evocative of Republican attacks on Democrats. Cuellar’s campaign says Cisneros is backed by the “defund the police” movement. And they say Cuellar’s plans for reforming Customs and Border Protection would lead to open borders and increased crime. Cisneros also leans on his history of representing the south Texas district for 17 years. The incumbent portrays a hopeful vision that his family represents the American dream, and he wants to replicate that for Texans.

Cisneros has seized upon the FBI investigation into Cuellar’s campaign finances and ties to Azerbaijan. While Cuellar has denied wrongdoing, Cisneros is using the raids on Cuellar’s home and campaign office as evidence that the incumbent is corrupt. Cisneros’ ads claim Cuellar’s lengthy service in Washington has changed him and that he’s too beholden to special corporate interests.

Cisneros is a vocal proponent of Medicare for All and abortion access. She also blasts Cuellar’s status as one of the few remaining anti-abortion rights Democrats left in Congress.

→ The visitors.

While establishment Democrats are keeping Cuellar at arm’s length, the nation’s leading progressives are actively involved in Cisneros’ campaign.

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) stumped in person in Texas for Cisneros earlier this month in the most high-profile appearance of the campaign. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) campaigned in San Antonio yesterday. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) has also backed Cisneros.

The overview: Moderate majority-maker, Rep. Carolyn Bourdeaux faces off against prominent gun control advocate Rep. Lucy McBath.

→ The leadership.

The House Democratic leadership isn’t taking sides in this race, but McBath received an endorsement from the Congressional Black Caucus PAC. 

Pelosi has donated to both McBath and Bourdeaux.

→ The money picture.

McBath is outraising Bordeaux. During the fourth quarter of last year, McBath raked in more than $745,000 while Bourdeaux raised $432,000. The candidates have both raised about $2.5 million combined since the campaign cycle began.

Both of the campaigns are grassroots in nature, with 83% of donations to Bordeaux being less than $200. Ninety-four percent of McBath’s campaign contributions from donors were less than $200. Both campaigns have committed to not taking corporate PAC money.

→ The message.

McBath became nationally known as an advocate for gun control after her teenage son was shot and killed in Florida. McBath has since centered her campaign messaging on funding for gun violence research, background checks for firearm purchases and expanding health care access. 

“I refuse to let Brian Kemp, the NRA and the Republican Party keep me from fighting,” McBath said in a statement to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. “They are not going to have the last word.”

A progressive group called the Patriotic Millionaires endorsed McBath and has argued that candidates like the more centrist Bordeaux “have done more damage to President Biden’s agenda than Mitch McConnell and Ted Cruz combined.”

Last August, Bordeaux was one of the nine moderate House Democrats who said they wouldn’t support President Joe Biden’s $3.5 trillion social policy package unless a vote was first taken on the Senate-passed bipartisan infrastructure bill. Although the group eventually relented, the centrists’ move angered liberals in her district and played a role in effectively killing the Build Back Better Act.

Bordeaux has since voted for both the $1 trillion infrastructure plan and the $1.9 trillion social spending proposal, but it might be too little, too late for a revamped safe Democratic district with a majority-minority base.

Editorial photos provided by Getty Images