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PRESENTED BY

BY JOHN BRESNAHAN, ANNA PALMER AND JAKE SHERMAN

THE TOP

Good Monday morning from Orlando, where House Republicans are meeting for their annual policy retreat. We’ve been to these retreats in Hershey, Pa., Baltimore, Philadelphia and Williamsburg, Va. This is probably the best locale so far. It’s going to be a balmy 83 degrees here today and tomorrow. 

A few things to point out:

→ House Republicans are holding the agenda for this confab super close to the vest, for reasons not entirely clear to us. 

→ Last night, Republicans heard from legendary football coach Lou Holtz. 

→ Ben Shapiro, the conservative podcaster and writer, is slated to speak, several sources told us.

→ Today, Republicans will hear from Ari Fleischer and Sarah Huckabee Sanders about how to “work with the press.” NRCC Chair Tom Emmer (R-Minn.), CLF/AAN President Dan Conston and RNC Chair Ronna McDaniel will all speak.

→ At 1:30 p.m., the GOP lawmakers will hear from Keith Krach, who served in the State Department under former President Donald Trump; Michael Pillsbury, a China hawk at the Hudson Institute; and Derek Scissors, another China expert now at AEI.

→ At 2:45 p.m., Rich Powell and Michael Shellenberger will speak about energy and climate. Powell is executive director of ClearPath, a nonprofit “working to accelerate conservative solutions to climate change.” Shellenberger is a controversial author who says that while climate change is real, it’s less of a threat than environmentalists claim.

→ Of note: Miami Mayor Francis Suarez will speak Tuesday at 10 a.m.

We got our hands on some of the public opinion data that pollster Rob Autry presented to House Republicans last night. It’s split into four topics: Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s popularity; Republicans’ advantage on the economy; the southern border; and Democrats’ “wasteful spending.”

Here are some excerpts that stuck out to us.

→ “In February, Nancy Pelosi was already the most unpopular elected official in the country, at a 41% favorable – 52% unfavorable rating. Since then, Pelosi’s image has dropped a net seven points to 38% favorable – 56% unfavorable. Pelosi hits 60% unfavorable in Trump/Democratic districts. Democrats in these districts are going to have an uphill battle defending their decisions to vote in lockstep with Pelosi’s socialist agenda. Republicans continue to be in position to flip the House. In ticket-splitting districts, 54% want “a Republican who will be a check-and-balance to Nancy Pelosi and the Democrats’ agenda in Congress” while just 41% want “a Democrat who will help Nancy Pelosi and the Democrats pass their agenda in Congress.”

→ “Voters trust Republicans over Democrats in Congress on jobs and the economy by +5 (46% GOP – 41% Dem).”

→ “Seventy five percent (75%) of voters see the border situation as a crisis or a major problem. Just 23% say the situation at the border is a minor problem or not a problem at all. … [I]ndependents trust Republicans over Democrats to handle the issue of immigration by +16.”

Check out the full memo 

One final point: Republicans have spent tens of millions of dollars demonizing Pelosi during the last two decades. All she’s done is win the House twice during that time.

BIG WEEK ALERT

How to think about Biden’s speech​

President Joe Biden’s road to Wednesday’s address to a joint session of Congress has been … unusual. Unpredictable. Unprecedented. All of the above.

Wednesday’s speech — on the 99th day of his presidency — is another seminal moment for Biden. He’s been up to the Capitol a couple of times since his inauguration. Tragically, those two trips were to pay his respects to two U.S. Capitol Police officers who died in the line of duty.

But there’s been no in-person sit down with his old colleagues in the Senate Democratic Caucus, or the House Democratic Caucus (he’s spoken to both over the phone and videoconference.). No meeting with the congressional leadership from both parties. In fact, as far as we can tell, Biden hasn’t even spoken to House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) at all. 

This joint address — like Biden’s inauguration — will be a fraction of the traditional size. Yet Biden will finally have his long-awaited opportunity to appear before the American people from the House chamber and lay out his vision for where he wants to take the country.

A big part of the speech will be Biden unveiling his “American Family Plan,” the second half of the “American Jobs Plan.” This latest proposal will focus on childcare, paid family leave, and other social welfare issues, where the first portion was centered on infrastructure. The price tag is expected to be at least $1.5 trillion — possibly as high as $1.8 trillion — but the details of Biden’s address are still a work in progress. House and Senate Democrats are involved in a last-minute lobbying blitz to try to sway the White House on what to include in the package. 

A group of Senate Democrats led by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) is pushing Biden and White House officials to lower the Medicare eligibility age while expanding benefits, something which neither the White House nor Democratic leaders have endorsed at this point. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Assistant Speaker Katherine Clark (D-Mass.) are urging a $700 billion federal investment in child care, far higher than what Biden is expected to propose. The Washington Post said Biden “will include about $200 billion to extend an increase in health insurance subsidies through the Affordable Care Act exchanges,” which will please Hill Democrats.

But after the New York Times reported last week that the White House would not include a provision on prescription drug pricing, Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) issued a statement saying Democrats want to see it included in any bill they pass: "Lowering health costs and prescription drug prices will be a top priority for House Democrats to be included in the American Families Plan."

One thing Biden will definitely include — as he proposed on the campaign trail — is raising taxes on wealthy Americans. This includes raising the capital gains tax, as well as the top marginal rate for those making over $400,000 annually. All that is expected to be unveiled Wednesday. Remember: Biden needs 218 votes in the House and a majority vote in the Senate for any proposal. Just because he proposes something doesn’t mean it will become law.

When combined with the corporate tax increases Biden has already proposed in the first portion of the “American Jobs Plan,” Biden is looking to completely unwind the Republicans’ 2017 tax cut, which was former President Donald Trump’s biggest legislative accomplishment. 

So the Biden administration and Democrats on the Hill face a major political selling job over the next few months — convincing the American people that $4 trillion plus in new spending, combined with the trillions in new taxes, is the right answer for the U.S. economy. Biden and First Lady Jill Biden will head to Atlanta later this week, and other Cabinet officials will spread out across the country in coming days and weeks.

The White House and Democratic leaders in Congress will also face another decision: whether to scale down their initiative and seek a bipartisan deal with Senate GOP moderates, or roll the dice and try to push the entire package through both chambers using the budget reconciliation process, thus avoiding a Republican filibuster. Either path is a gamble. If Biden and Democratic leaders try to work with Senate GOP moderates, it will be a far more modest package than what they’re currently pushing, and will almost certainly focus solely on “hard” infrastructure. If Democrats try to go it alone, they will need to keep all their own moderates — including Sens. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) — in line. Due to their historically tight margins of control, there’s literally no room for error.

→ Of note: Lawmakers are being warned to stay away from the House chamber on Wednesday unless they have been invited to Biden’s address. Typically all members of Congress and senators — as well as former lawmakers — can attend joint addresses, and many do. Not this year. There will only be 200 or so people in the House chamber. Tickets will be tightly limited, and no lawmakers can bring guests.

SNEAK PEEK

What the Senate is up to this week

The highlight of this week on Capitol Hill will be President Joe Biden’s address to a joint session of Congress on Wednesday night. His 100th day in office comes Thursday, so expect Senate Democrats to play that up.

The Senate will vote on three nominations this week: Jason Miller to be deputy director for Management at OMB; Janet McCabe for EPA deputy director; and Colin Kahl for under secretary of Defense for policy.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) — who was busy waving his flip phone on MSNBC on Sunday and watching the Oscars while drinking “an ice cold plant-based beer” (yeah, we don’t know either) — will move forward on the Drinking Water and Wastewater Infrastructure Act of 2021. And he’ll call for a vote on a Congressional Review Act resolution disapproving of the Trump administration’s rule on methane emissions. CRA resolutions are simple majority votes.

In the Senate committees, two things we’re watching closely: Zalmay Khalilzad, the Special Representative for Afghanistan Reconciliation, will appear before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Tuesday afternoon, while the Commerce Committee will mark up the Endless Frontier Act — offered by Schumer and Sen. Todd Young (R-Ind.) — on Wednesday.

With Biden ordering a pullout of all U.S. forces in Afghanistan starting May 1, we expect Congress to have a lot more to say on this issue in the weeks and months ahead.

SPOTLIGHT

NYT’s Mark Leibovich on Kevin McCarthy

The NYT’s Mark Leibovich got tons of access to Kevin McCarthy for a big profile that ran this morning on A16 of the paper.

As the end of the Trump presidency devolved into turmoil and violence, Mr. McCarthy faced a dilemma, one that has bedeviled his party for nearly five years: Should he cut Mr. Trump loose, as many Republicans were urging. Or should he keep trying to make it work with an ousted president who remains the most popular and motivating force inside the G.O.P.? … 

Mr. McCarthy chose the latter, and not for the first time. His extravagant efforts to ingratiate himself with Mr. Trump have earned him a reputation for being an alpha lap-dog inside Mr. Trump’s kennel of acolytes. Nine days after Mr. Trump departed Washington, there was Mr. McCarthy paying a visit to Mar-a-Lago, the former president’s Florida estate, in an effort to “keep up a dialogue” with the volatile former president.

“He goes up and down with his anger,” Mr. McCarthy said of Mr. Trump in a series of interviews during a recent 48-hour swing through Indiana and Iowa, and home to Bakersfield, Calif., which he has represented in Congress since 2007. “He’s mad at everybody one day. He’s mad at me one day.” … 

“He could change the whole course of history,” Mr. McCarthy said, referring to the prospect that Mr. Trump could undermine Republican campaigns, or leave the party entirely. “This is the tightest tightrope anyone has to walk.” … 

Still, the turmoil never brought Mr. McCarthy to a breaking point with Mr. Trump. “Look, I didn’t want him to leave the party,” Mr. McCarthy said. “Mitch had stopped talking to him a number of months before. People criticize me for having a relationship with the president. That’s my job.”

Whenever the former president’s name came up in these interviews, Mr. McCarthy would lower his voice and speak haltingly, wary of not casting Mr. Trump in a way that might upset him. “Is this story going to be all about Trump?” Mr. McCarthy asked, after back-to-back questions on him. He then paused, seemingly bracing for a ceiling fan to drop on his head.

STATE OF THE ART

Zeldin, running for governor, fundraises off court packing

GOP Rep. Lee Zeldin is running for governor of New York. But he is fundraising off of Joe Biden and the Supreme Court. Your latest installment of all politics is national.

MOMENTS

9:50 a.m.: President Joe Biden will receive his daily intelligence briefing. 

12 p.m.: Jen Psaki and NEC Director Brian Deese will brief. 

4 p.m.: VP Kamala Harris will speak to Guatemalan President Alejandro Giammattei.

CLIP FILE

NYT

→ “E.U. Set to Let Vaccinated U.S. Tourists Visit This Summer,” by Matina Stevis-Gridneff in Brussels

→ “Iran’s Foreign Minister, in Leaked Tape, Says Revolutionary Guards Set Policies,” by Farnez Fassihi

→ “Federal Aid to Renters Moves Slowly, Leaving Many at Risk,” by Jason DeParle

WaPo

→ “CEO of vaccine maker sold $10 million in stock before company ruined Johnson & Johnson doses,” by Jon Swaine

→ “A cheerleader’s Snapchat rant leads to ‘momentous’ Supreme Court case on student speech,” by Robert Barnes

WSJ Editorial Board 

→ “The Dumbest Tax Increase”

AP

→ “Biden’s first 100 days: Where he stands on key promises,” by Alexandra Jaffe, Aamer Madhani and Kevin Vineys

→ “Golden bill would ban spending by corporate PACs”: “Members of Congress from Maine and California have submitted a proposal to ban spending by corporate political action committees. Democratic Reps. Jared Golden of Maine and Josh Harder of California said the PACs have too much influence on electoral politics. Maine Citizens for Clean Elections found that corporate PACs have spent more than $90 million on Maine elections alone since 2008, Golden said.”

Politico

→“As Manchin hogs limelight, West Virginia’s other senator seizes her moment,” by Burgess Everett

PUNCHBOWL NEWS BOOK CLUB

Former House Speaker John Boehner joined us for Punchbowl News Book Club last night to discuss his bestseller, "On the House".  We talked about Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, Boehner’s relationship with President Barack Obama, the story behind his retirement and more.

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Editorial photos provided by Getty Images