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PRESENTED BY

BY JOHN BRESNAHAN, ANNA PALMER AND JAKE SHERMAN
WITH MAX COHEN AND CHRISTIAN HALL

THE TOP

We — just like you — are pretty intently focused on the main legislative event right now, which is infrastructure and the other items at the top of President Joe Biden’s legislative agenda. These priorities are sucking up all of the oxygen in the Capitol — and rightfully so!

But in the last day or so, our attention has been diverted to the police reform talks — or the lack thereof. We keep hearing that the discussions have all but broken down. 

Nearly a month after GOP and Democratic negotiators said they’d reached an “agreement on a framework addressing the major issues,” the discussions have stalled out, according to the sources we spoke to on Wednesday.

Sens. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) and Tim Scott (R-S.C.) haven’t made any breakthroughs, despite positive public comments from both. The news coverage has also dwindled. Much more of the focus now is on rising crime rates, not fixing policing, and the politics look to have shifted as well.

One source close to the issue said the talks are on life support, and the ventilator isn’t working. Another source “agreed with life support” characterization, but declined to say that the talks had completely broken down.

This group has missed a host of its self imposed deadlines over the last few months, and now July appears to be slipping away without a deal.

The outstanding issues are the same, with possible changes to the “qualified immunity” legal doctrine being a major hangup. And the key police groups remain divided on the legislation, another big problem.

With the August recess fast approaching, there seems little chance of Congress doing anything on this before lawmakers head home

IS D.C.’S AUGUST IN TROUBLE?

Our latest reporting on the timing of Biden’s legislative agenda

We spent Wednesday afternoon watching the drama on the Senate floor and trying to figure out what’s next. 

And like you — this includes the House and Senate leadership in both parties, as well as the White House — we’re looking toward the bipartisan infrastructure group to see whether they can actually come up with a $1 trillion compromise proposal by next week. Meaning a bill, in legislative text form,  that Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) can offer on the floor. In a statement, 22 senators — 11 Republicans and 11 Democrats — said they “are optimistic that we will finalize, and be prepared to advance, this historic bipartisan proposal to strengthen America’s infrastructure and create good-paying jobs in the coming days.”

So what happens from here? How long does it take to pass this proposal, if it actually comes together? What does it mean for the Senate schedule, particularly the $3.5 trillion Democratic budget resolution that’s key to President Joe Biden’s agenda? What happens in the House? And what if it doesn’t come together? We’ll try to game it out.

If the bipartisan group can deliver on its own proposal next week — and it passes initial vetting by both Democatic and GOP leaders — then Schumer can schedule another cloture (procedural) vote with no delay. At that point, the bipartisan group backs Schumer and helps get cloture, which allows their proposal to be offered as an amendment to the underlying House bill.

Then the negotiations start. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and other Republicans who aren’t backing the compromise will want to offer amendments. Some Democrats, especially progressives, could have their own issues. The bipartisan group will have to stick together — and with Democrats — to defeat any amendments that could spoil the deal. Ultimately there will be two more cloture votes; one on the compromise plan as amended, and one on the underlying bill. Then a final passage vote.

All this will take time. At least a week, maybe more; Sen. Minority Whip John Thune (R-S.D.) predicted it would take up to 10 days. And again, this is all predicated on the bipartisan group sticking with Schumer and Democrats to provide at least 60 votes to overcome any Republican filibuster.

Senate passage also raises challenges for Speaker Nancy Pelosi and the White House. Rep. Peter DeFazio (D-Ore.), chair of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, and his fellow House Democrats won’t want to see their INVEST in America Act just superseded by the Senate compromise bill. The White House and Pelosi may have to lean in hard here. Yet the reality is that it’s easier to resolve DeFazio’s problems than to try to renegotiate a carefully structured Senate compromise. So House Democrats may just have to eat the Senate bill, which they won’t like. But the counter-argument will be: it’s that or nothing.

The floor time needed to pass the Senate bipartisan bill also will impact on the budget resolution timetable. Schumer and Senate Budget Committee Chair Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) tentatively had been aiming to begin debate on the $3.5 trillion resolution on Aug. 2, and finish up late that week, we’ve been told. The Senate currently is scheduled to begin recess the following week.

However, Schumer may be forced to keep the Senate in session the week of Aug. 9 in order to pass the budget resolution. Schumer warned his Democrats that changes to the August schedule could occur when this work period began, so it shouldn’t be a huge problem despite expected grumbling about canceled CODELs. The political stakes are too high for Democrats and the White House to worry about that.

Senate Republicans, for their part, are already preparing hundreds of amendments for the vote-a-rama on a budget resolution. They will look to target vulnerable Senate Democrats up for reelection in 2022  — Mark Kelly of Arizona, Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire, Raphael Warnock of Georgia and Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada — with tough amendment votes.

But again, this is a party unity issue. If Schumer and the Democrats — having just passed a $1 trillion compromise infrastructure bill pushed by their moderates — stick together, they can pass the budget resolution. It may not always be pretty, yet Democrats have already gotten through one vote-a-rama this year on the American Rescue Plan, meaning they can likely get through this too.

One note here — If the bipartisan infrastructure compromise doesn’t come together, or it gets hung up in the Senate, then Schumer’s scheduling job becomes simpler, of course. Schumer would just have to worry about passing the budget resolution — if he can. But we’re going to assume that the Senate passes both measures for the moment.

All this would take us to mid-August. At this point, the focus shifts back to the House. Pelosi will have to make a choice about bringing the House back to take up the Democrats’ budget resolution and bipartisan infrastructure bill. The House is scheduled to leave town on July 30, with no floor votes scheduled until Sept. 20.

However, House Democratic leaders have already looked at the calendar and know they have move quickly so that their committees — and the Senate’s too — can get to work drafting the massive reconciliation bill. House Democrats may adjourn in the chamber in late July “subject to the call of the chair,” meaning members can be called back into session fairly quickly.

How Pelosi handles the budget resolution versus an infrastructure bill — separately or as a package in order to assuage both progressives and moderates — would be her call at that point. And Pelosi knows her caucus better than anyone. She will figure out how to try to pass the measures using what’s only likely to be a three-seat majority then.

Remember: After the bipartisan bill and budget resolution, Democrats need to assemble the reconciliation package, which includes all the policies they’ve made room for in the budget. And then there’s the debt limit and government funding. 

We’re also not going to get into funding for the U.S. Capitol Police and National Guard here, but a deal seems increasingly possible next week. Getting that through the Senate could take some floor time, maybe even a cloture vote in the worst case, but it has to be done before Congress adjourns for the August recess. Both the Capitol Police and National Guard could be forced into furloughing employees without more money, and party leaders aren’t going to allow that.

SNEAK PEAK FOR PUNCHBOWL NEWS READERS

Anita Dunn’s presentation for House and Senate Dems

New for Punchbowl News readers: We got our hands on a presentation that White House Senior Adviser Anita Dunn will give to members of Congress today about how to talk about the Democrats’ Build Back Better agenda, and how the administration is pushing it. It’s 23 pages and gives good insight into how they see the political dynamics of their agenda.

BIDEN’S TOWN HALL

POTUS on the filibuster

President Joe Biden participated in a CNN town hall last night with Don Lemon in Cincinnati. There were a few pertinent points when it came to governing and the politics of legislation:

Biden on the filibuster: 

LEMON: "If it’s a relic of Jim Crow, it’s been used to fight against civil rights legislation historically, why protect it?"

BIDEN: "There’s no reason to protect it other than you’re going to throw the entire Congress into chaos and nothing will get done. Nothing at all will get done. And there’s a lot at stake. The most important one is the right to vote. That’s the single most important one. And your vote counted and counted by someone who honestly counts it. 

"But it goes beyond that. For example, wouldn’t my friends on the other side love to have a debate about the filibuster instead of passing the Recovery Act? Or wouldn’t they love doing it instead of being in a position where we provide for — how many of you have children under the age of 17? Raise your hand. Guess what? You’re getting a lot of money in a monthly check now, aren’t you? No, you deserve — no, no, no, I really mean it. 

"Republicans used to fight for it, as well. It’s called the child tax credit. If you have a child under the age of 7, you get $300 bucks a month, $350 bucks a month. If you have a child under — between 7 and 17, you get a total of $200 bucks a month. And guess what? It’s cutting child poverty in half. In half."

This answer is quite interesting in that Biden quickly moves away from the debate over the filibuster and touts his legislative agenda. But Biden’s support for keeping the filibuster seems clear. He says the Congress would be thrown “into chaos” if there was a fight over getting rid of the filibuster and this is what Republicans really want.

Biden also said this: “I would go back to that, where you have to maintain the floor. You have to stand there and talk and hold the floor.” This is support for the so-called “talking filibuster,” which, as constructed, would still require 60 votes.

Biden on infrastructure:

"I think it’s going to get done. You may find in the amendments that take place on the detail, the detail of whether or not — and I’m the guy that wrote this bill to begin with. And so I’ve had to compromise to make changes in the bill. When I say I, I campaigned on this."

Biden wrote this bill? Come on. His team definitely had a big hand in this, but he did not write it.

PUNCHBOWL NEWS EVENTS

The Road to Recovery Series

WEDNESDAY, JULY 28 @ 8:45 A.M.

We invite you to join us for a timely conversation with Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.) about small businesses, access to capital and the economic recovery.  This conversation is the first in a three-part series sponsored by Goldman Sachs 10,000 Businesses. Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon will join Anna and Jake afterward for a fireside chat.

HOUSE GOP WARS

What Republicans really think about Liz Cheney

The level of absolute disdain for Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) in the House Republican Conference is truly something we’ve never seen before. It drips from Republicans in every sentence they utter about Cheney.Just to recap: Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) barred Reps. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) and Jim Banks (R-Ind.) from the Jan. 6 select committee. In turn, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) then pulled Republicans from that panel. Cheney said Pelosi made the right decision and suggested McCarthy shouldn’t be speaker. Cheney world says she’s choosing country over party, and McCarthy’s a naked political opportunist.

So we wondered why don’t House Republicans do something about it? Why not expel Cheney from the House Republican Conference, or strip her of her committee assignments or endorse a primary opponent?

Here’s what one Republican told us: “No need to murder someone who’s committing suicide. Dead woman walking.”

In other words, Republican leadership feels as if she has no political future — and her time with Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) on the Jan. 6 commission etches that in stone, in their eyes.

MOMENTS

9 a.m.: House Minority Whip Steve Scalise, GOP Conference Chair Elise Stefanik and the GOP doctor caucus will speak about the delta variant of Covid at the House Triangle.

10 a.m.: Speaker Nancy Pelosi will hold her weekly news conference

10:30 a.m.: President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris will get their intelligence briefing.

10:45 a.m.: Pelosi will hold a photo opp with King Abdullah of Jordan. 

12:15 p.m.: Jen Psaki will brief. … Harris will meet with DACA recipients and immigration advocates.

12:30 p.m.: House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy will hold his weekly news conference.

1:15 p.m.: Biden will get briefed by his Covid relief team.

2:15 p.m.: Biden will sign the VOCA Fix to Sustain the Crime Victims Fund Act of 2021. He’ll also speak. 

4 p.m.: Biden will meet with union and business leaders about the bipartisan infrastructure framework.

CLIP FILE

NYT

→ “Battle for Power in Haiti Extends to Lobbying in Washington,” by Ken Vogel and Natalie Kitroeff: “The struggle for power in Haiti after the assassination of the country’s president has spilled onto K Street, where rival Haitian politicians, business leaders and interest groups are turning to lobbyists to wage an expensive and escalating proxy battle for influence with the United States. … 

“A group text chat in the days after the killing of President Jovenel Moïse that included Haitian officials, political figures and American lobbyists showed them strategizing about countering American critics and potential rivals for the presidency and looking for ways to cast blame for the killing, according to copies of the messages obtained by The New York Times and confirmed by some of the participants. The chat began before the assassination and originally included Mr. Moïse, though it appeared to take on a more frenetic tone after he was gunned down in his home this month.

“The texts and other documents help bring to life how lobbyists from firms including Mercury Public Affairs — which was paid at least $285,000 in the second half of last year by the Haitian government — are working with allied politicians to position successors in the wake of the assassination.”

WaPo

→ “White House officials debate masking push as covid infections spike,” by Annie Linskey, Dan Diamond, Tyler Pager and Lena Sun

→ “How Thomas Barrack’s alleged illegal lobbying shaped Trump’s policies in the Gulf,” by Karen DeYoung

WSJ

→ “​​Infrastructure Fundraising Bounced Back in 2021’s First Half,” by Chris Cummins

LAT

→ “More than a laugh: Kamala Harris’ is a sound check for a divided country,” by Noah Bierman

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