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PRESENTED BY

BY JOHN BRESNAHAN, ANNA PALMER AND JAKE SHERMAN
WITH MAX COHEN AND CHRISTIAN HALL

THE TOP

Good Tuesday morning. 

Here’s the only assessment one can make right now about Democrats on Capitol Hill and at the White House: This is a party that, at the moment, is a bit adrift and doesn’t seem to know how to turn its bold ideas into legislation that can actually pass. That is a big problem when you’ve got the razor-thin margins that Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer have. Forget blowing up the filibuster. There are few issues that a simple majority of House and Senate Democrats agree on right now. 

But even more worrisome for our political system and financial markets is that caught up in the Democrats’ struggle to turn their lofty goals into law is government funding and the debt limit. We are careening into a legislative crisis. The government will shut down in nine days and estimates indicate we will reach the nation’s borrowing limit in one month.

We’re going to take this topic by topic this morning. This is fresh reporting from late Monday evening in the Capitol. And the sheer uncertainty is evident from top to bottom. 

→ The House will vote today on a short-term government funding bill coupled with language to hike the debt limit until 2022. Republicans are going to block this in the Senate. If you still think GOP senators are going to cave, we can’t help you. Republicans from Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah) to Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.) made it very clear on Monday they were in lockstep with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell in blocking a debt limit hike.

So what’s Plan B? Glad you asked — because we did too. It is an obvious question and no one has an answer.

We asked Pelosi Monday evening what will happen if Senate Republicans block the combo CR-debt limit bill Democrats have proposed.

“Well, let’s hope they won’t,” Pelosi responded to us. When we noted that Republicans have repeatedly said they’re going to reject it, including again on Monday, she said, “Well, let’s hope they don’t.” They will.

House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn said this when asked about a Plan B: “Not that I know of.” Clyburn repeated that line again as he entered the House chamber.

→ The Democrats have an obvious fallback here: They can add a debt-limit increase to the reconciliation package by amending the budget resolution. This would be very time consuming, but it’s doable. This tactic would trigger two Senate “vote-a-ramas” and would need to kick into gear sometime in the next few weeks to meet the mid-October deadline for raising the debt limit.

“The speaker has been pretty adamant about not doing it that way,” House Budget Committee John Yarmuth (D-Ky.) told us.

Pelosi told us this: “We put out our path in the continuing resolution.” In other words, she’s not forcefully ruling it out, but not yet conceding that it is the likely path.

→ Let’s move on to President Joe Biden’s legislative agenda. At this moment, there is no clear path for Congress to pass the reconciliation package anytime soon. Pelosi held a meeting with committee chairs and leaders in the Capitol Monday night and said decisions need to be made on the “overall direction” of the package — meaning taxes, Medicare, Medicaid and more — in the next 48 hours. 

It seems exceedingly unlikely that these decisions will be made in the next two days. (The White House needs to get involved, sources say.) Even if it were to happen, the fastest the reconciliation package can come to the floor would be the end of next week. But even that’s unlikely because the chasm between the moderates and progressives is very wide at this point. 

→ In a “Dear Colleague” letter released Monday night, Pelosi insisted that the differences between House and Senate Democrats aren’t as wide as many rank-and-file lawmakers believe. But she also had a carefully worded warning to her progressives — be prepared to be disappointed by the Senate.

“Our legislation is being reviewed by the House and Senate Budget Committees for possible Byrd violation challenges in order to narrow our exposure in a Byrd bath,” Pelosi wrote. “The House and Senate are already in agreement on most of the bills.”

Pelosi did make a concession to nervous Democratic moderates. She promised that the House wouldn’t vote on a version of the reconciliation package that’s more expensive than its Senate counterpart. This has been a major fear of moderates throughout the reconciliation process.  

“The President and Senate Democrats sent us a budget resolution with a cap of $3.5 trillion. I have promised Members that we would not have House Members vote for a bill with a higher topline than would be passed by the Senate,” Pelosi said. “Hopefully, that will be at the $3.5 trillion number. We must be prepared for adjustments according to the Byrd rule and an agreed to number.”

There’s a lot in that Pelosi statement, especially the “Hopefully, that will be at the $3.5 trillion number.” Progressives should take very close notice of this line.

 → It seems almost certain that Democrats won’t be able to pass the bipartisan $1 trillion Senate infrastructure bill until reconciliation is done — and, again, that’s a couple weeks away at best. Pelosi’s deal with Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.) to vote on infrastructure by Sept. 27 seems as valuable as the paper it was written on. Progressives are getting ready to block it — just as we wrote they would at the time.

“It will not pass,” Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, told reporters Monday. Jayapal also said she was whipping against the infrastructure bill at this point. 

“So we are excited to vote for the infrastructure bill as soon as the reconciliation bill passes,” Jayapal added. “The two have to go together. That was the deal made in the Senate. That was why the progressive senators voted for the infrastructure bill.”

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) told our pal Manu Raju at CNN that she wouldn’t vote for infrastructure until reconciliation passes both chambers.

→ If you were counting on Republicans voting for the infrastructure bill in the House to try to counteract Democratic no votes, you should consider another option.

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy said this last night: “Before, there were some that were really looking at it [the bipartisan infrastructure bill.]  Then after the Democrat mods collapsed, a lot of them said they weren’t going to [vote for it] because it’s viewed as one bill now. And so, they don’t want to add another [$]5 trillion.”

Let us translate McCarthy for you: Very few Republicans are going to vote for infrastructure, and he’ll nudge his party in that direction. 

→ Even Rep. Peter DeFazio (D-Ore.), the chair of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, understands the process has gotten away from him. 

“I have been working hard on my portion of it,” DeFazio told reporters. “If it’s actually going to happen, we’re doing pretty well. So but I, you know, I mean, go ask [Joe] Manchin or [Kyrsten] Sinema.”

If you have a sense where Democrats are heading, if you assume there’s a secret plan, guess again. We don’t doubt Pelosi or Schumer, or the power of deadlines to bring about more coherent thinking by wayward members and senators. 

But let’s just lay this out here — It seems completely probable that the following deadlines will be mushed together: government funding, debt limit, infrastructure and reconciliation. 

DeFazio, who has been in Congress since 1987, said it best: “I’ve been here for cliffs, and crises and wars. And this is going to be the biggest mash up we’ve ever had since I’ve been here with the debt limit, with the government shutdown, with reconciliation, and with infrastructure, and I have no idea how it all works out. No idea. That’s it.”

Update: Wall Street analyst Wrightson ICAP has moved its debt ceiling deadline back to Oct. 25-26.

Happening this morning: Rep. Joyce Beatty (D-Ohio), chair of the Congressional Black Caucus, will join us today at 9 a.m. for an in-person conversation at The Roost on Capitol Hill. In addition to news of the day, the conversation will focus on the uneven recovery for Black business owners coming out of the Covid-19 pandemic. The event is part of our “Road to Recovery” series sponsored by Goldman Sachs 10,000 Small Businesses Voices.

THE MONEY GAME

We got the DCCC dues sheet

We got our hands on the DCCC dues sheet for August, which reveals how much each member of the House Democratic majority has paid in dues to the party committee and how much they have raised for their colleagues. 

In many respects, the dues sheet is the lifeblood of the party committee. It shows who is up to snuff and who is slacking off.

In case you don’t know, House campaign committees exist on two types of revenue: fundraising and member dues. Dues are directly tied to whether a member is in leadership and what committee they sit on. A-list committees — Ways and Means, Appropriations, Energy and Commerce and Financial Services — owe more in dues than less prestigious panels.

Check out some highlights from the August report:

→ Speaker Nancy Pelosi has raised $73 million for the DCCC. Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (N.Y.), the DCCC chair, is the number two fundraiser, raking in $19 million. This demonstrates part of Pelosi’s power inside the House Democratic Caucus — she is far and away the biggest money draw. Rep. Katherine Clark (Mass.), the assistant speaker, has raised $2.3 million and paid $375,000 of her $700,000 in dues. House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer has raised $1.75 million of his expected $3 million total and paid $451,000 of his expected $900,000 in dues.

→ Rep. Maxine Waters (Calif.), the chair of the exclusive Financial Services Committee, has raised just $126,250 of the $1.2 million she’s supposed to funnel to the committee. Waters has paid nothing in dues. This isn’t unusual for Waters, who goes her own way on fundraising, but it’s still eye-catching. Rep. Raul Grijalva (Ariz.), chair of Natural Resources, hasn’t paid a dime to the DCCC either — but has raised $73,875 of the $300,000 he is expected to bring in. Rep. Carolyn Maloney (N.Y.), chair of Oversight and Reform Committee, has zeroes across the board. 

Now compare this to Rep. Richie Neal (Mass.), chair of Ways and Means, who has raised nearly $1.4 million. Rep. Adam Smith (Wash.), chair of Armed Services, has raised $543,500 for the DCCC and paid $50,000 of the $300,000 he needs to in dues. Rep. Mark Takano (Calif.) pulled in $453,200 for the committee and paid $25,000 of his $300,000 in dues. Appropriations Committee Chair Rosa DeLauro (Conn.) raised $455,000 of the $1.2 million she’s expected to bring in and paid $125,000 in dues. Rep. Frank Pallone (N.J.), chair of Energy and Commerce, raised $709,417 for the DCCC and paid $125,000 of the $600,000 he owes in dues. 

→ Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (N.Y.), who has beefed with the DCCC in the past, has paid nothing in dues and raised nothing for the party committee. However, she has more than $5 million on hand in her re-election account. Rep. Rashida Tlaib (Mich.), Juan Vargas (Calif.), Al Lawson (Fla.), John Larson (Conn.), Gerry Connelly (Va.), John Garamendi (Calif.) and Cori Bush (Mo.) are all examples of lawmakers who have not paid dues.

→ Intelligence Committee Chair Adam Schiff of California has raised $478,429 for the party and has paid $400,000 in dues — $50,000 more than his goal. Schiff is sitting on more than $15.6 million in his reelection account. Rep. Hakeem Jeffries of New York, the No. 4 in Democratic leadership, has raised $873,700 of his $1.5 million goal. He has given $375,000 of his $575,000 in dues. 

→ Rep. Cheri Bustos (Ill.), the former DCCC chair who is retiring at the end of this term, has paid zip in dues. She has $1 million on hand. Rep. Peter Welch (Vt.) also hasn’t paid dues.

It’s only September of the off year. We’ll keep you posted as people pony up. 

THE INVESTIGATIONS

Menendez still wants to talk to Austin about Afghanistan collapse

Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chair Robert Menendez of New Jersey still wants to question Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin over U.S. military policy in Afghanistan — including the disastrous withdrawal from the war-torn Southwestern Asian nation — but some of his anger at Austin for standing up the panel appears to have diminished. Just a bit, at least.

Menendez was furious with Austin a week ago for refusing to attend a Foreign Relations Committee hearing on Afghanistan. Secretary of State Antony Blinken testified, but Austin was a no-show. Menendez threatened to subpoena Austin if he had to, and possibly place holds on some Biden administration nominees. These are extraordinary comments from a Democratic committee chair to one of the top officials in a Democratic administration, but as we said, Menendez was upset.

“We are in the midst of trying to have a conversation with the secretary,” Menendez said on Monday. “I understand he wants to go to Armed Services first. That’s fine, which I wish he would have said. But that doesn’t mean that I’m still not interested in having him before the committee, because we can’t do foreign policy without that [the Pentagon] as part of the equation.”

Austin is scheduled to testify before the Senate Armed Services Committee on Sept. 28 in open and closed session. Also scheduled to appear at that time are Joint Chiefs Chair Mark Milley and Gen. Kenneth McKenzie, commander of U.S. Central Command.

Menendez said he may have a hold on one of the administration’s nominations, but he couldn’t recall who when we spoke to him.

FRONTS

MOMENTS

9:30 a.m.: Vice President Kamala Harris will meet with Melinda French Gates to talk about Covid-19. 

10 a.m.: President Joe Biden will address the United Nations General Assembly. … House Minority Whip Steve Scalise will hold a news conference.

10:15 a.m.: House Democratic Caucus Chair Hakeem Jeffries and Vice Chair Pete Aguilar will hold a news conference.

11:10 a.m.: Harris will give a speech about the Build Back Better agenda.

11:30 a.m.: Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Reps. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), Carolyn Maloney (D-N.Y.) and John Yarmuth (D-Ky.) will speak about the Protecting our Democracy Act.

Noon: Biden will meet with Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrrison.

2:15 p.m.: Biden will leave New York for D.C. He is slated to arrive at the White House at 3:55 p.m. Jen Psaki will brief on Air Force One. 

3 p.m.: Harris will meet with U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson in her ceremonial office.

4:45 p.m.: Biden will meet with Johnson in the Oval Office.

CLIP FILE

NYT

→ “Democrats to Pair Spending Bill With Raising Debt Ceiling, Pressuring G.O.P.,” by Emily Cochrane

 → “Democrats Begin Effort to Curb Post-Trump Presidential Powers,” by Charlie Savage 

 → “Justice Dept. Urges Supreme Court to Uphold Roe v. Wade,” by Katie Benner 

CNN

→ “Member of CIA chief’s team reported Havana syndrome symptoms on recent trip to India,” by Kylie Atwood

→ "January 6 committee chairman says panel could start issuing subpoenas ‘within a week’" by Annie Grayer and Ryan Nobles

WaPo

→ “After immigration ruling, Democrats’ once-sweeping agenda continues to shrink,” by Matt DeBonis, Sean Sullivan and Maria Sacchetti

→ “Biden seeks to open a new chapter in world affairs, facing fresh skepticism from allies,” by Anne Gearan and John Hudson in New York

AP

→ “Biden aims to enlist allies in tackling climate, COVID, more,” by Aamer Madhani and Josh Boak

Politico

→ “Becerra takes a back seat while others steer Covid response,” by Adam Cancryn

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