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PRESENTED BYBY JOHN BRESNAHAN, ANNA PALMER AND JAKE SHERMAN THE TOPGood Wednesday morning. We’re one day away from a possible government shutdown and 19 days from a debt default. For federal workers, we have some good news. For Democrats and the White House, not good. For Republicans, news that could go either way. Government funding We broke some news Tuesday evening that will serve as the blueprint for the next few days and will likely help avoid a government shutdown. However, it doesn’t resolve the growing partisan showdown over the debt limit, or do anything about internal Democratic feuding on the bipartisan infrastructure bill and the massive reconciliation package. In a bow to the inevitable, Senate Democrats are preparing to move a “clean” two-month funding bill today that will keep federal agencies open until Dec. 3. This bill, which is expected to get wide bipartisan support, doesn’t include any language on suspending the debt limit. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and his GOP colleagues on Monday blocked a continuing resolution with a provision that would suspend the debt limit until December 2022. McConnell is demanding that Democrats use the reconciliation process to pass a debt-limit increase using only Democratic votes. The latest move by Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer should take the threat of a government shutdown off the table. Funding for federal agencies runs out at midnight Thursday. Senate Democrats were “hotlining” the CR on Tuesday night, meaning checking for objections from any senators to a vote today. If all goes as planned, the Senate will approve the bill and send it to the House. House leaders plan to take up the bill this afternoon if possible. The Congressional Baseball Game is tonight at 7 p.m., so that’s a potential scheduling problem. If needed, the House can consider it early Thursday and send it to President Joe Biden for a quick signature. That would end one of this week’s four major crises. One quick note — the Senate funding package doesn’t include money for Iron Dome, Israel’s missile defense system. The $1 billion being sought for that program will have to go as a standalone bill (the House approved the funding last week) or be attached to some other measure. Debt limit But Democrats aren’t giving up on forcing through a debt-limit increase using the normal legislative process, despite McConnell’s unyielding opposition. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned congressional leaders on Tuesday that the federal government wouldn’t be able to obtain new loans on Oct. 18. This puts a hard deadline on congressional action or the country will be in default, which every national leader has said would be an economic and financial catastrophe. Schumer has rejected the idea of using reconciliation for a debt limit-only bill, calling it “very, very risky” and a “non-starter.” Schumer offered a consent agreement on Tuesday to raise the debt limit with a simple majority vote, yet McConnell blocked it. Now House Democrats are going to try to pass a “clean” debt-limit bill by majority vote and send it to the Senate — if they can muster 218 Democratic votes. The idea is to continue to ratchet up the pressure on McConnell and his Senate GOP colleagues in a bid to somehow find 10 Republican senators who will break ranks and vote with Democrats on this issue. This isn’t going to happen, and even some Democrats view it as a futile exercise at this point. The House Rules Committee is preparing to meet today and approve a legislative vehicle for the debt-limit language. This will be in the form of a “message” from the House. That would allow Schumer to attempt to break the Republican filibuster quicker if and when it reaches the Senate. Got it so far? The problem is that we don’t know if this debt-limit legislation can get through the House. Democratic insiders weren’t sure Tuesday whether it could be done. If not, that’s a quick end to this plan. And even if the House does pass it, McConnell will block it. So we’re not entirely sure how this will help Democrats. Yes, McConnell is open to charges of hypocrisy on the debt limit. Yes, Democrats helped raise the debt limit to help pay for the trillions of dollars of debt incurred under former President Donald Trump. That doesn’t move McConnell, and it hasn’t moved his colleagues yet either. Reconciliation Tuesday was full of sometimes messy action on the $3.5 trillion reconciliation package, the key to Biden’s legislative agenda. Schumer and Pelosi have been scrambling to reach a deal on a topline figure for that legislation, in part to help pass the $1 trillion infrastructure package that is scheduled to be voted on by the House on Thursday. But standing in the way of that agreement are Sens. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.). These two senators — Sinemanchin — have opposed large parts of the reconciliation package, including the total cost, what’s in it and the tax increases needed to help pay for it. Basically everything. Biden summoned Manchin down to the White House on Tuesday for an hour-plus meeting in the Oval Office. Sinema went to the White House three times — once to meet with Biden, and twice more to huddle with senior White House aides. Biden canceled a Wednesday trip to Chicago to help work through the reconciliation-infrastructure problems. None of these meetings went particularly well or resulted in any deals, according to Democratic sources Manchin even said they didn’t talk about a topline number. All of this leaves Biden, Schumer but especially Pelosi in a bind. These party leaders could really use a deal on a topline number — or ideally something even far broader — in order to sell the bipartisan infrastructure package to unhappy House progressives. These progressives have vowed to vote against that unless they get both bills. We have a lot more on this below. We expect more of the same direct negotiations with Sinemanchin today. Perhaps we get a presidential visit to the Hill at some point. We’re not sure what will lead to any breakthroughs at this point, but we’ll be all over it. The Coverage: → CNN: “Patience wanes as Democrats demand Sinema and Manchin reveal views on Biden agenda,” by Manu Raju and Lauren Fox → Politico: “Manchin, Sinema leave Dems in lurch as Biden agenda teeters,” by Marianne Levine and Burgess Everett → WaPo: “Negotiations between Biden, Democrats intensify as $4 trillion agenda hits stalemate,” by Tony Romm, Marianna Sotomayor and Seung Min Kim PRESENTED BY HCA HEALTHCARE At HCA Healthcare, our patients are our top priority. We stand for accessible, high-quality healthcare delivered with compassion, integrity and kindness for all who come through our doors. When communication is a barrier, we provide our caregivers and staff access to translation and interpretation services to ensure understanding with all patients and families. For our patients, for our communities and for our country, you can count on HCA Healthcare to show up. THE LEFT Listen to House progressives. They’re going to sink the infrastructure bill “Occam’s Razor” is the principle that the simplest answer is usually the correct one. House Democratic progressives sound like they are going to defeat the $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill when it comes up for a vote on Thursday. Lots of them. Many of them — a dozen or so — laid out their cases to us in the Capitol on Tuesday. They sound pretty convinced. And the Democratic leadership, Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) and Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) seem pretty far from coming up with a solution to satisfy their concerns, short of delaying the infrastructure vote until the reconciliation package is done. So based on all this, the infrastructure bill looks to be in big trouble heading into Thursday. Here’s what a smattering of progressives told us: → Rep. Katie Porter (D-Calif.), the deputy chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus: “We want to vote on the president’s agenda, what we have before us. Currently, is right this very second is not the president’s full agenda. So that’s what we want a vote on. It’ll be a yes on infrastructure, and yes on childcare, the elderly care, the health care, the climate change. We don’t know exactly what form this agreement will take — what timing. … We gotta know where they are.” What Porter needs to see: “A commitment to certain programs and certain policies being included. We want to do childcare policy, we want to do universal pre-K, we want to do expansion of Medicare home and community based care … We want to do electric vehicle standards. So it’s a list of programs, and the dollar figure behind them … and a total dollar figure. … So what we need from the Senate is: what’s in and at what level.” → Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.): “We are a yes on both, nothing short of that. … I am not voting unless there are two bills passing together.” → Rep. Mark Pocan (D-Wis.): “I would think sometime in [October] we’ll get things done. But again, the date isn’t important. Getting to a final product that’s really going to deliver for our constituents is what’s important. … [Y]ou have to consider them twin bills. And that’s how you get them both done. And so I think what we’re doing is we’ve got the president’s back strong enough that we’re willing to vote no on something because we know that’s what has to happen.” → Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, on whether a topline number would be enough for her to back infrastructure: “No. … I want the bill to pass in the Senate. Because we had a commitment for 3.5. It was a top line number guys, it was a [$]3.5 [trillion] top line number out of the Senate, on the budget resolution, and then look at the problems we had.” As you can see, many of these problems aren’t easily solvable by Thursday. If your answer is “Republicans are going to help push the bill across the finish line,” we asked the top two House Republicans that question on Tuesday. In short, no. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy told us his goal is to force Democrats to pass the bill on their own. “Shrink it as much as possible,” McCarthy said of the GOP vote total. House Minority Whip Steve Scalise: “The number has been reducing over the last few weeks as we’ve been talking to members about it and we’re gonna keep talking to them about it and we’ll see if they actually bring it up for vote this week. Pelosi keeps dragging it further and further out. So she must have trouble on her own right now.” House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn has said on multiple occasions this week that he’s not even whipping the infrastructure bill yet. Why progressives should vote for it, and why they shouldn’t This is a fun exercise. We spoke with a bunch of members on background — not for attribution — and rapped with them about their strategy when it comes to voting for infrastructure. We’re going to argue both sides of the coin here — Why it’s smart for progressives to vote for infrastructure, and why it’s stone-cold stupid. Why progressives should back infrastructure: How could Democrats ever, ever, ever abandon President Joe Biden when he needs them most. He’s up against the wall. His poll numbers are tanking. Give Biden the win that both he and the Democratic Party desperately need! He can have a Rose Garden ceremony for the infrastructure bill in the works right now. How can you starve him of that moment? Plus, Sens. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) and Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) say they won’t negotiate on the reconciliation bill until they get infrastructure. So give them infrastructure and you get your big social spending bill. Why they shouldn’t: How in God’s name can progressives vote for infrastructure right now? How can they trust that Manchin and Sinema, much less House moderates, are going to give them anything remotely close to what they want on reconciliation? Delaying infrastructure is the only insurance policy progressives have to ensure they get what they want on reconciliation. Why would they give that up? Furthermore, there is no time limit here. Leadership can extend the surface transportation spending authority for a few months while they work this up. In reality, Democrats have until the end of the year here before we get into an election year. Why don’t they just take the time and try to get it right? The Coverage → NBC: "Mutually assured destruction’: House liberals dig in on halting infrastructure bill," by Sahil Kapur, Leigh Ann Caldwell and Garrett Haake RECONCILIATION: THE POLITICS What’s happening across the country on Biden’s agenda There are 405 days until the midterm elections. And, as of now, the $3.5 trillion reconciliation bill will be the legislation Democrats will run on and Republicans will run against. We have a few political data points this morning from both sides that will help illustrate where both parties think they are. → American Action Network, the House GOP-linked outside group, has a poll of 400 registered voters in three swing districts that shows the legislation is deeply unpopular. The polls were taken in House districts represented by Reps. Cindy Axne (D-Iowa), Tom Malinowski (D-N.J.) and Elaine Luria (D-Va.). What’s interesting about this poll is that the language AAN used is pretty generous to Democrats, yet the reconciliation bill is still underwater in each district. Here’s how they asked about the bill: “As you may know, President Biden and the Democrats in Congress have proposed a $3.5 trillion bill that they say would strengthen the social safety net, invest in climate policy, expand Medicare, childcare and paid leave, create universal pre-K and make incentives for green energy adoption. Knowing this, do you favor or oppose Congress passing this $3.5 trillion bill?” In Iowa and New Jersey, 51% oppose it. In Virginia, 52% oppose it. Here’s the whole polling memo. → Here’s a House Majority Forward ad that’s running in 18 House districts touting the Biden agenda. HMF is a progressive non-profit affiliated with House Majority PAC, the House Dems’ super PAC. → The First Five Years Fund, which backs increased federal support for early childhood learning programs, is spending $500,000 on ads in Arizona, New Hampshire, Nevada and West Virginia to tout investments in childcare and preschool. Here’s the spot for Arizona. PRESENTED BY HCA HEALTHCARE HCA Healthcare’s data allows us to conduct research and create innovative tools that improve patient outcomes and the delivery of care throughout the country. THE PUNCHBOWL NEWS INTERVIEW Bush on Biden, Pelosi and her growing national profile It was late on July 30, a Friday night, and most members were on flights back home to begin their seven-week summer recess. But Rep. Cori Bush (D-Mo.) and a few staffers instead camped out on the Capitol steps. Furious that the House had left town without extending the federal eviction moratorium, Bush refused to give in. Her protest — joined by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) and several other Democrats — grabbed national attention, and she helped push the White House and the party leadership into taking action. Those six days marked a huge moment in Bush’s political career. It wasn’t long before President Joe Biden was calling her. Vice President Kamala Harris and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer came to see her. The Rev. Jesse Jackson, Sr., dropped in. Speaker Nancy Pelosi praised her. Suddenly, Bush was being interviewed by national and international media outlets. On Tuesday, we sat down with Bush to discuss her first eight months in office representing Missouri’s 1st District. We also talked about what it’s been like since her newfound prominence as a progressive rising star. “People would come up to me on the streets before and just you know ‘Hey thank you for all that you do,’” Bush said. “But what I hear a lot now is ‘Thank you for being on those steps because I was evicted before, or because I’m going through that right now.’" For Bush, 45, her actions were more than just a legislative tactic; they were motivated by some of her own personal experiences. Bush herself was evicted three times, and she ended up living in her car with two children. Bush’s decision to spend the night on the steps of the Capitol was born out of that familiar sense of anxiety. “I am fighting for the people of St. Louis who have felt for so long that they had not been heard, that it was money over people, that it was property over people, you know, and we want to see something different because I’ve been on the side of being that one that was wishing somebody, would speak directly to my issues, and the issues of people that are directly in my circle,” Bush said. Bush’s high-profile protest, plus heavy lobbying from Pelosi, eventually forced the Biden administration into action. The CDC extended the moratorium for 60 days, citing the spread of the Delta variant. The Supreme Court later ruled that the CDC had gone too far and struck down the order. Although the moratorium extension was a temporary win, Bush is hesitant to give Biden too much praise for how he makes legislative decisions. Bush praises White House officials for outreach to her office, yet she also thinks Biden is spending too much time on bipartisanship and not enough focusing on the Black voters who helped him get to the Oval Office. Bush called it a “lane of mine” — being “hyperfocused on making sure the voices of Black voters are heard.” “Personally I’ve had conversations with the White House, and my staff have as well, so they know how we feel and the good thing is that there is this huge open door as far as us being able to tell them how we feel,” Bush said. “They’ll even reach out saying ‘Hey, this is what’s going on, how do you feel about this?’” But Bush pointed to the lack of minority Democrats at the White House last week as Biden talked to lawmakers about the $3.5 trillion reconciliation package, the hears of his agenda. “The problem is we should also be at those tables,” Bush said. “You know, when I think about the 23 legislators who were at the table a week ago at the White House to discuss how we were about to move forward — the fact that when I looked at that list, I didn’t see one member of Congress who represents a primarily black district. I think I saw one black woman, if I remember correctly. A couple of other people of color. But that is the problem.” Bush added: “I think bipartisanship comes into play a lot right now it seems with the administration… But our communities didn’t vote bipartisan in November 2020.” We also asked Bush if she felt Pelosi is supportive of her priorities. “I think a lot is not what I would say. Some of the things, yes,” Bush responded. “I guess it’s not that I think that some of those things she isn’t supportive of. She may believe in them, but we have a different idea about how to make it happen.” MOMENTS 9:30 a.m.: President Joe Biden will get his daily intelligence briefing. 10:30 a.m.: House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn and Rep. Lauren Underwood (D-Ill.) will talk about health care in the reconciliation bill. Noon: Biden will attend a memorial service for Susan Bayh, the late wife of former Sen. Evan Bayh. … Senate Republicans including Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) will hold a news conference. 2 p.m.: Vice President Kamala Harris will meet with small businesses to discuss the Biden administration agenda. … Jen Psaki will brief reporters. CLIP FILE NYT → “McKenzie suggests the U.S. may not be able to prevent Al Qaeda and ISIS from rebuilding in Afghanistan,” by Eric Schmitt WaPo → “As Trump hints at 2024 comeback, democracy advocates fear a ‘worst-case scenario’ for the country,” by Ashley Parker → “Woman who said she wanted to shoot Pelosi in the ‘brain’ pleads guilty to misdemeanor" by Rachel Weiner and Spencer S. Hsu WSJ → “Havana Syndrome Attacks Widen With CIA Officer’s Evacuation From Serbia,” by Warren P. Strobel AP → “The AP Interview: Capitol Police chief sees rising threats,” by Michael Balsamo and Colleen Long → “North Korea says hypersonic missile made 1st test flight,” by Kim Tong-Hyung in Seoul, South Korea PRESENTED BY HCA HEALTHCARE At HCA Healthcare, patients are our highest priority, and we are making a meaningful difference in the lives of our patients by setting new standards for care. Our large-scale clinical research with partners, including the Harvard Pilgrim Health Care Institute and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), analyzes data from our more than 32 million annual patient encounters to help physicians discover and deliver personalized medicine. HCA Healthcare’s COVID-19 data is also being used to improve patient outcomes and public knowledge. Additionally, HCA Healthcare was the first national healthcare organization to adopt a mandatory flu safety policy to help protect all patients that walk through our doors. For our patients, for our communities and for our country, you can count on HCA Healthcare to show up. Enjoying Punchbowl News AM? Subscribe 10 friends with your unique link (below) and get a Punchbowl News hat! Your referral link is: Or share via You currently have: 0 referrals
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