The Archive

LEADER LOOK

Jeffries on N.Y., Biden v. Trump and why he’s ignoring the polls

The Jeffries Interview. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries knows his party is in pole position to win back the House. With Republicans enjoying a slim, five-seat majority thanks to Democratic overperformance in 2022, the chamber is heavily favored to flip control in 2024. This would make Jeffries the first Black speaker in U.S. history.

We spoke to Jeffries about the role New York will play in the elections, how the presidential race will affect the House campaign and what races he’s tracking.

New York. No region will receive as much attention in the battle for the House as Jeffries’ home state. Democrats are singularly focused on knocking off six freshman incumbents in blue seats: Reps. Nick LaLota, George Santos, Anthony D’Esposito, Mike Lawler, Marc Molinaro and Brandon Williams.

What happened in 2022 was a “perfect storm” of anti-Democratic factors, Jeffries said. The Brooklyn Democrat cited a new map drawn by a special master, a number of retirements that left key seats vacant and a “challenging political environment” for Democrats.

Jeffries is playing an active role behind the scenes as Democrats push to have the congressional maps redrawn ahead of the election next year.

In our sitdown, Jeffries vowed that Democrats wouldn’t repeat their mistakes:

Biden’s bad poll numbers. President Joe Biden’s approval rating is hovering at 37%, something that privately worries many Democrats. Recent New York Times polling found Biden trailing Trump in numerous battleground states.

But Jeffries says Biden’s middling poll numbers don’t matter one bit to him. Democrats, Jeffries reminded us, overperformed the polls last cycle.

“The polling, to me, is not of any concern because there was only one poll that has mattered in the last few years,” Jeffries said. “And that was the verdict on Election Day in 2022.”

Here’s more:

We pressed Jeffries on Biden — if his poll numbers aren’t concerning, do you worry about his age? But Jeffries didn’t budge, insisting the president is the best person to lead their party to victory next year.

The Trump effect. Jeffries sees the presidential race as a clear boon for House Democratic candidates, predicting it will again juice up turnout and motivate voters to oppose former President Donald Trump.

“President Joe Biden will be back on the ballot in all likelihood against Donald Trump, a supervillain who is terrible for democracy,” Jeffries said. The House minority leader loves to call out “extreme MAGA Republicans” — he mentioned the phrase 10 times during our interview — and sees the rhetoric as a political gift for Democrats.

“The villain is the extreme MAGA Republican ideology and track record, which has done nothing to improve the lives of everyday Americans,” Jeffries said. “When House Democrats had the majority, we delivered big results for the American people.”

While Jeffries described new Speaker Mike Johnson as “smart,” he said the Louisiana Republican believes in the same “extreme” ideology as Trump. This is something Democrats plan to hit Republicans on over and over again between now and next November.

The map. Outside of New York, Jeffries identified three pickup opportunities in California — Reps. David Valadao, John Duarte and Ken Calvert — as prime flips. Plus, Jeffries singled out vulnerable GOP Reps. Juan Ciscomani and David Schweikert in Arizona.

AIPAC. We also asked Jeffries about the increasingly hostile tone AIPAC’s PAC is taking toward certain pro-Palestinian Democratic incumbents. Jeffries has always been staunchly pro-Israel and is aligned with AIPAC, which puts him in a bit of an awkward spot here.

“House Democratic leaders… have been clear in terms of our support for our colleagues and that’s going to continue,” Jeffries said. He cautioned that he hadn’t seen any explicit action taken by the PAC against incumbents yet.

“We’ll cross that bridge when we get to it,” Jeffries said.

Days after our interview, United Democracy Project — the AIPAC-affiliated super PAC — began running ads attacking Democratic Reps. Jamaal Bowman (N.Y.) and Summer Lee (Pa.) for not supporting a pro-Israel House resolution. UDP also went after GOP Rep. Thomas Massie (Ky.) for his vote.

— Max Cohen and Heather Caygle

SENATE MAP

The McConnell successors’ money game

The race to succeed Mitch McConnell as Senate GOP leader, as you probably know by now, centers on a group we coined the “Three Johns.”

That’s Senate Minority Whip John Thune, GOP Conference Chair John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) and Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), a former McConnell whip.

All three have long been making moves to position themselves as prolific fundraisers. This is a key part of the job and one that McConnell has mastered through his massive political operation over the years.

And we’ll start off with some news about McConnell: Outside groups aligned with the Senate GOP leader, including the Senate Leadership Fund, are already outpacing their $400 million haul from last cycle, according to sources familiar with McConnell’s operation.

Each John has gone about the money game in his own unique way. Let’s dive in.

Starting with Thune. The South Dakotan has been particularly active during the early months of the 2024 cycle, according to sources close to his operation.

So far this cycle, Thune has raised more than $5 million for the NRSC, which is second only to Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.), who chairs the campaign arm. And Thune has $17 million in his campaign account.

Thune has headlined fundraisers for GOP incumbents including Sens. Ted Cruz (Texas) and Roger Wicker (Miss.), as well as for GOP candidates like Sam Brown in Nevada and Rep. Jim Banks (R-Ind.).

We scooped last month that Thune would be headlining an NRSC fundraiser for Brown in Las Vegas on Oct. 28. Brown is a top recruit for the party, and Thune is far from the only sitting Republican senator to help Brown clear the primary field and take on Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.) next year.

So far this year, Thune has traveled on behalf of 19 GOP senators, and he has headlined events in Washington for 23 incumbents and candidates.

And just last week, Thune announced at a party meeting that he’d committed $250,000 toward paying off the remaining $500,000 of the NRSC’s debt. Republicans, with contributions from Barrasso and Cornyn, quickly matched it.

Thune, who hails from a small state, also holds the record for the largest single transfer in NRSC history — $2 million in 2016.

On to Barrasso. Publicly available data about the Wyoming Republican’s political operation shows that he brought in more than $2 million in the first three quarters of 2023.

Through the first half of this year, Barrasso’s leadership PAC, Common Values, raised nearly $250,000. The PAC has transferred funds to Republican Sens. J.D. Vance (Ohio), Rick Scott (Fla.), Josh Hawley (Mo.), Kevin Cramer (N.D.) and others — including Banks’ Indiana Senate bid.

And finally, Cornyn. The Texan’s fundraising prowess is well-established, having chaired the NRSC for two election cycles.

Sources familiar with Cornyn’s political operation tell us that his joint fundraising committee, the Cornyn Victory Committee, has raised $7.82 million so far this year. That includes nearly $1 million last month alone.

Cornyn established the committee at the beginning of the last election cycle as he sought to aid GOP campaigns directly. His fundraising total for the 2022 cycle topped $20 million. Only Scott, the NRSC’s then-chair, and McConnell brought in more.

Over the past decade, Cornyn has been the top Senate GOP fundraiser behind McConnell, per sources familiar with the conference’s money game. Cornyn served as GOP whip under McConnell from 2013 to 2019 and has maintained a similar fundraising pace since then.

Cornyn has put on events for GOP Sens. Pete Ricketts (Neb.), Jim Risch (Idaho), Cruz and several others across the country this cycle, including in Aspen, Colo., and Scottsdale, Ariz. He has also appeared at fundraisers for GOP Sens. Katie Britt (Ala.), Dan Sullivan (Alaska) and Jerry Moran (Kan.).

— Andrew Desiderio

TALLY POWER MATRIX

— Max Cohen

THE HOUSE

Top five House races to watch

With 2024 around the corner, we’re looking at the top five House races that’ll determine which party is in power next Congress.

Now this isn’t just our opinion. We spoke with more than two dozen Republican and Democratic strategists, insiders and politicos about the races they care about.

Here’s where we landed.

Washington’s 3rd District: Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez

Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Wash.) is a rare Democrat representing a district won twice by former President Donald Trump. Gluesenkamp Perez will likely face far-right candidate Joe Kent in a rematch of her 2022 win.

Gluesenkamp Perez is a co-chair of the Blue Dog Coalition, which has rebranded to include younger and more diverse members of the Democratic Caucus. She has broken with her party on several votes in her first term, including backing the GOP-led NDAA and a bill prohibiting the Biden administration from banning gas stoves.

Kent is back after successfully knocking off Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler (R-Wash.) in a primary last cycle. GOP strategists hope a forward-looking campaign from Kent (read: not election-denying) will help to flip the seat that Trump won by four points in 2020.

California’s 41st District: Rep. Ken Calvert

Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Calif.) is a longtime incumbent who is facing a rematch against Democrat Will Rollins in a fascinating test of whether culture war issues will resonate in the 2024 cycle.

Calvert, who’s been in office since the early 90s, saw his district change in 2022 to include more liberal enclaves, such as Palm Springs. As a result, LGBTQ rights have taken center stage in the campaign.

Rollins — who came within five points of beating Calvert last cycle — is a formidable challenger who’s fundraising at an impressive rate. If Rollins wins, it’ll show that voters nationwide are paying attention to red-meat bills that House Republicans have passed this Congress.

Of particular note is Calvert’s perch on the Appropriations Committee, where Republican lawmakers have voted to strip funding from LGBTQ facilities in normally non-controversial spending bills.

Arizona’s 1st District: Rep. David Schweikert

Rep. David Schweikert (R-Ariz.) is a perennial Democratic target in a Scottsdale-area swing seat that will be at the heart of the political map in 2024.

Schweikert, who’s faced ethics troubles in the past and squeaked to reelection by under a percentage point last cycle, has attracted a bevy of Democratic challengers. Most interesting in the field is Marlene Galán-Woods, a broadcast journalist and the widow of former GOP Arizona Attorney General Grant Woods.

Michigan’s 7th District (open seat)

With Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) jumping ship for a Senate run, Michigan’s 7th District is now a tantalizing open seat that Republicans are finally hoping they can flip.

The Lansing-area seat is a true toss-up. Without an incumbent, we’ll learn a lot about how Biden is running by watching this contest. Republicans are backing former state Rep. Tom Barrett again in this race. And Democrats are lining up behind former state Sen. Curtis Hertel, who used to work for Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer.

New York’s 17th District: Rep. Mike Lawler

New York’s 17th District is the most high-profile race in the nation’s premier House battleground state in 2024.

Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) is the incumbent and he’s an outspoken moderate. The New York Republican knocked off DCCC Chair Sean Patrick Maloney (D-N.Y.) last cycle in a race defined by public safety concerns and inflation.

Can Lawler hang on to a seat that went for President Joe Biden by 10 points in 2020? Lawler will likely face former Rep. Mondaire Jones (D-N.Y.), a leading progressive, in the general. Jones is the favorite to beat Liz Whitmer Gereghty in the Democratic primary. But Jones may emerge bruised from a competitive primary contest.

— Max Cohen and Mica Soellner