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The Super Tuesday races that will change Capitol Hill

Happy Super Tuesday! While many people will be tracking the presidential race, there are a ton of key congressional races we’re keeping an eye on here at Punchbowl News. For more, don’t miss the special edition of the Tally coming out later this morning.

Big-money California Senate primary: The marquee Senate race today is the top-two primary between Democratic Reps. Adam Schiff, Katie Porter and Barbara Lee and Republican Steve Garvey. Schiff, who’s raised gobs of money, is leading in most polls and has the majority of key endorsements. Who will join him in the general election? Porter and Garvey appear to be battling for second.

Which California Democrat will succeed Porter? The nastiest Democratic battle of the day comes in California’s 47th District, where state Sen. Dave Min and Joanna Weiss are vying to replace Porter. Weiss’ allies, which include AIPAC’s super PAC, are hitting Min over a previous drunk driving arrest.

Will there be a Valadao-Salas rematch? Rep. David Valadao (R-Calif.) is one of the few Republicans in districts that President Joe Biden won by 10 points or more in 2020. A top target for Democrats, Valadao is also facing a challenge from his right flank. Democrats are investing in Rudy Salas, but the failed 2022 candidate is facing an unexpectedly tough primary from Democratic state Sen. Melissa Hurtado.

Who will prevail in the Moore-Carl member-on-member clash? Redistricting meant Alabama GOP Reps. Barry Moore and Jerry Carl are challenging each other in the primary for the state’s 1st District. The contest has quickly gotten messy. Both Republicans have tried to portray their opponent as soft on the border. While former President Donald Trump hasn’t weighed in, both Moore and Carl are trying to tie themselves as closely as possible to Trump.

What Alabama Democrat will punch their ticket to the general? Democrats are almost certain to pick up a new seat in Alabama thanks to court-ordered redistricting of another majority-minority opportunity district. Whoever emerges from the crowded primary — top contenders include state Rep. Napoleon Bracy, former DOJ aide Shomari Figures and Alabama House Minority Leader Anthony Daniels — will be the favorite to win in November.

Will Don Davis face Sandy Smith again? After North Carolina Republicans redistricted three Democrats out of their seats, Rep. Don Davis’ (D-N.C.) seat is the only competitive race left in the Tarheel State. The Congressional Leadership Fund is spending to boost Laurie Buckhout in the GOP primary over unsuccessful 2022 candidate Sandy Smith.

— Max Cohen

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Editorial photos provided by Getty Images. Political ads courtesy of AdImpact.