Washington is doubtful former President Donald Trump will return to the White House after the November election.
Our surveys of K Street in January and Capitol Hill in February found little confidence in Trump as the party’s presidential candidate. Just 11% of K Street Republicans and 28% of top congressional GOP staffers said Trump was the party’s best choice.
Downtowners and top Hill staffers weren’t much more optimistic when asked about Trump’s chances of defeating President Joe Biden.
Just one-third of congressional respondents believe Trump will win. On K Street, 64% of respondents believe Biden will win reelection this year.
Defying Washington: Trump, of course, has an uncanny ability to defy all reasonable political gravity. He remains popular across the nation despite his endless legal battles. He is head-to-head with Biden in most national polls.
Trump is also gaining public support on Capitol Hill, despite some GOP lawmakers’ private reservations. The controversial former president has snagged the endorsements of every top Republican leader in the House and most Senate GOP leaders.
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who announced last week he would step down from his leadership role later this year, has wrestled with whether to endorse Trump.
Biden’s problems: Biden is also wobbling in his quest for reelection. He’s had stubbornly low polling numbers and is bleeding support among young voters.
Biden’s handling of the southern border and the Israel-Hamas war have also put him in a tight spot. On Capitol Hill, 60% of Canvass respondents said the lawmaker they work for disapproves of Biden’s handling of the border crisis.
Nearly two-thirds of both Republican and Democratic respondents said Biden’s response to the Israel-Hamas war will harm his chances of winning in November. Only 7% said the issue would help the president.
— Mica Soellner
