Dems romp: What that means for Washington

IN THIS EDITION

Dems’ big night and what it means for Washington

Will Democratic wins derail any shutdown deal?

The Vault: Tariff case has big stakes for Congress

ICYMI: Graves wants highway bill by next spring

Inside Scalise’s new floor team

THE TOP

Dems’ big night and what it means for Washington

Happy Wednesday morning.

If Republicans aren’t scared by what happened Tuesday night, they should be.

One year after President Donald Trump and Republicans won the White House, Congress and every battleground state, Democrats struck back by painting Virginia and New Jersey blue Tuesday night, shifting the map leftward in county after county.

Former Virginia Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger and Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-N.J.) won the governorships of Virginia and New Jersey. The pair were elected to the House in the gigantic Democratic class of 2018.

Zohran Mamdani, a 34-year-old Muslim democratic socialist, was elected mayor of New York City. Trump endorsed former Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo at the 11th hour, but it wasn’t nearly enough. Mamdani has already become a focal point of GOP attacks against Democratic candidates and incumbents. Here’s how the NRSC is trying to tie Mamdani to Democrats running in battleground states.

Democrats successfully defended three Pennsylvania Supreme Court justices, a big win for Gov. Josh Shapiro that protects the state’s congressional map.

And in California, voters overwhelmingly approved Prop 50, which will allow Democrats in the state legislature to redraw congressional maps to give themselves up to five new seats. This is a huge victory for Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom, as well as the biggest plus for House Democrats in the national redistricting struggle set off by Trump.

Big picture. This was a Democratic romp in the midst of a national crisis over the now record 36-day government shutdown. It should send a stark message to Trump, Speaker Mike Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune that the national tide has shifted decisively from last year’s Republican victories.

Trump said this on Truth Social: “TRUMP WASN’T ON THE BALLOT, AND SHUTDOWN, WERE THE TWO REASONS THAT REPUBLICANS LOST ELECTIONS TONIGHT,” according to Pollsters.” In fact, Trump will never be on the ballot again.

But the biggest challenge for Republicans is that Trump’s poll numbers have fallen dramatically, especially on the economy. Trump wants to be at the center of the national conversation all the time, turning every race into a national referendum. Yet the issue now is whether that’s good for Republicans up and down the ballot.

Trump will meet with Senate Republicans this morning and then fly to Florida afterwards.

The immediate questions to consider are the following:

1) Will Democrats’ victories hasten the end of the shutdown or prolong the 36-day spending impasse? Will Democrats be so emboldened that they want to continue the fight over Obamacare subsidies by keeping the government closed? Tuesday’s results guarantee that the progressive wing of the Senate Democratic Caucus will fight against any quick deal. More below.

In fact, the optics here for Senate Democrats who want to strike a deal aren’t good.

2) Trump has been on a crusade to eliminate the 60-vote legislative filibuster. Faced with the very real potential for losing GOP control of Congress next year, Trump is upping the pressure on the Senate Republicans to invoke the “nuclear option” and change Senate rules in order to pass legislation with a simple majority. We expect Trump to go even harder on this today in person.

3) Will Republicans see their political power slipping after Tuesday night? It’s completely possible that by this time next year, a lame duck session of Congress will be starting with Democrats ready to take charge of at least one chamber.

A word of caution. It’s important not to make too much of off-year elections. The GOP gubernatorial nominee in Virginia — Winsome Earle-Sears — was woefully underfunded and bad on the stump. New Jersey reverted to its blue dominance with no Trump on the ballot.

Yet here are some stats to help illustrate the Democrats’ dominance in those states:

— Spanberger nabbled a double-digit win. That hasn’t happened in a Virginia governor race since 2009. Democrats gained seats in the Virginia House of Delegates, strengthening their majority. Spanberger won Loudoun County by 29 points a year after former Vice President Kamala Harris won by just 17 points.

— Two heavily Latino counties in New Jersey that Trump won in 2024 swung back to the left. Sherrill flipped Passaic and Cumberland counties and improved Harris’ margin in Hudson County by a double-digit advantage. That’s an early sign for Democrats that Trump’s inroads with Latino voters may not last in the face of ICE’s national immigration raids. That has huge implications for the battle for the House.

California. Prop 50 was the most important election on Tuesday’s ballot in the battle for control of Congress. Let’s revisit what the state’s new map will look like.

With the proposition’s passage, GOP Reps. Doug LaMalfa and Kevin Kiley are drawn into blue districts. Republican Rep. Ken Calvert’s district disintegrated, and Democrats added a Latino-majority district in the Los Angeles area.

Republican Rep. Darrell Issa finds himself in a battleground district. GOP Rep. David Valadao’s seat gets a little better for Democrats.

The GOP’s footprint in the Golden State could be reduced to just four Republican incumbents. And it could leave three members — Issa, Calvert, and Rep. Young Kim — fighting over one Southern California seat.

On the Democratic side, Rep. Ami Bera announced he will run in the 3rd District, the new version of Kiley’s district. Bera will vacate the new 6th District, leaving it open.

Texas. Democrats Christian Menefee and Amanda Edwards were on track to advance to a runoff in the special election to fill the state’s open 18th District. The late incumbent, Rep. Sylvester Turner (D-Texas), died in March.

– Jake Sherman, Ally Mutnick, John Bresnahan and Max Cohen

SHUTDOWN SHOWDOWN

Will Democratic wins derail any shutdown deal?

It’s Day 36 of the government shutdown. This is now the longest shutdown in U.S. history.

There was finally some momentum on Monday and Tuesday toward a bipartisan deal to end the standoff.

But Senate Democrats who want to keep up the fight are pointing to Tuesday’s election results as evidence that the public is with them — and that they shouldn’t cave now.

Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) said their victories should “give Democrats confidence that the American people have our back as we engage in the fight to protect people’s health care and save our democracy.”

What’s more, President Donald Trump’s late-night Truth Social post suggesting that the shutdown hurt Republicans in Tuesday’s elections could be seen as a sign that the president wants to cut a deal to end the shutdown quickly. Or it could supercharge his push for Republicans to end the filibuster. More on that in a bit.

It’s too early to say whether all of this will sway the handful of Democratic senators leading bipartisan talks to end the shutdown.

Here’s news: Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) are leading 25 fellow Senate Democrats in a new letter to the Trump administration that slams the GOP for refusing to negotiate a deal to reopen the government that concretely addresses health care. It lists rising health care costs, including spiking Obamacare premiums, and says voters want Congress and the president to act.

The letter shows that Senate Democrats are still trying to pressure Republicans for health care concessions even with a possible deal in sight.

We scooped in Tuesday’s PM edition that around a dozen Senate Democrats are engaging with Republicans on the contours of an agreement to reopen the government, chart a course on passing full-year FY2026 appropriations bills and set up votes on enhanced Obamacare subsidies.

Both sides still have to resolve internal differences on key elements of the proposal. The Senate could require multiple days to process any funding bill to reopen the government without an agreement to speed up the votes. But top GOP and Democratic aides suggested there’s a chance the Senate could vote on a deal this weekend. We’re skeptical.

Senate Republicans are heading to the White House for breakfast later this morning with Trump, as we scooped. Trump has been on a tear against the filibuster, urging GOP senators non-stop to get rid of the 60-vote threshold for legislation. This is a chance for Trump to take his case directly to them.

Trump will argue that Senate Republicans should end the filibuster and then jam through a CR on party-line vote in order to reopen the government. Congress could work on FY2026 spending bills and extending the Obamacare subsidies, but on GOP terms.

Yet Senate Majority Leader John Thune has made clear to Trump that eliminating the filibuster isn’t in the cards. The votes simply aren’t there. But that hasn’t stopped Trump from opening a rift with Senate Republicans at a time when they feel as if they’ve won the shutdown fight and Democrats are caving.

Obamacare debate reopens. If the current construct to end the shutdown holds — a very big “if” — Democrats would be folding without extracting anything resembling what they initially demanded in September.

So Democrats are now trying to figure out the best way to capitalize on what they’d get: A vote by a date-certain on a bill to extend the Obamacare enhanced premium tax credits.

Sens. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.), Angus King (I-Maine), Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.) and Gary Peters (D-Mich.), among others, will be heavily involved in plotting that strategy.

These Democratic senators want to avoid a “show” vote on Obamacare. They firmly believe there’s enough interest from Republicans to craft a narrow, bipartisan extension of the ACA subsides with reforms — even though many Democrats insisted for weeks that they needed the leverage of a shutdown to get Republicans to the table.

Yet GOP senators aren’t entirely on board with Thune’s idea to offer Democrats a straight vote on the subsidies.

During Republicans’ lunch meeting on Tuesday, Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska) said he wants to be able to vote on a GOP-authored Obamacare bill, too. The mechanism for this would be a “side-by-side” vote whereby senators could vote for one but not the other.

It’s a sign that there’s some concern among Republicans about the politics of rejecting a Democratic-drafted bill, even a bipartisan one.

Another problem for Democrats is that they don’t really have a way to force House Republicans to take up an Obamacare subsidies bill. Speaker Mike Johnson has said repeatedly that he can’t guarantee an outcome. It’s not clear the House Republican leadership could or would want to pass an extension of Obamacare subsidies, certainly not without Trump’s involvement. And they definitely don’t want to be jammed with a bipartisan Senate bill.

— Andrew Desiderio, John Bresnahan and Laura Weiss

The Vault: Tariff case has big stakes for Congress

A monumental case on President Donald Trump’s trade powers is on deck at the Supreme Court today. The political stakes for Congress are high.

Oral arguments before the Supreme Court this morning should give an initial sense of how justices are approaching the case, which challenges Trump’s authority to levy tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.

Trump posted Tuesday that a loss would leave the United States “virtually defenseless against other Countries who have, for years, taken advantage of us.”

The uncomfortable question for congressional Republicans is what they should do if the Supreme Court rules against Trump.

Potential fallout. Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) said he expects Trump to ask Congress to act if the tariffs are struck down.

“It would be hard, I think, and the only way to do it would be, in my view, through reconciliation — if it was even doable at all,” Cramer said of passing legislation to give Trump more trade powers.

Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) said “there’s more we could do” if the case doesn’t go the administration’s way.

The Trump administration could turn to other executive authorities aside from IEEPA.

But any pressure on Capitol Hill to address tariffs gets difficult quickly for Republicans. Many Republicans have quietly accepted tariff policies from Trump that they would normally oppose. Asking them to advance legislation that would empower the administration’s approach would be a bitter pill to swallow.

The unease over Trump’s trade moves has ticked up recently. There was last week’s Senate votes to overturn tariffs, a small public revolt this fall over House GOP leaders blocking tariff votes, and the backlash over increasing Argentinian beef imports.

When we asked House Ways and Means Committee Chair Jason Smith (R-Mo.) about what happens if Trump’s tariff regime doesn’t survive a SCOTUS ruling, he emphasized the case’s importance.

“This is unchartered territory whenever you used IEEPA,” Smith told us. “I believe the president has the authority to do it, but let’s see what the Supreme Court decides.”

Smith will be attending arguments at the Supreme Court today. Ways and Means Ranking Member Richard Neal (D-Mass.) and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent are also going.

2026 playbook. Republicans also risk getting hammered over tariffs in the midterms, as Democrats plan to make the trade wars central to their case to voters.

“It’s a huge issue because it’s raising costs on families. It’s a tax on everyday goods, and people are feeling it all over the country,” DCCC Chair Suzan DelBene told us.

— Laura Weiss and Brendan Pedersen

PUNCHBOWL NEWS EVENTS

ICYMI: Graves wants highway bill by next spring

House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee Chair Sam Graves (R-Mo.) said he wants Congress to pass a highway bill by next spring.

Graves called the transportation legislation he’s working on “the most important highway bill” since 1956 during a Punchbowl News event Tuesday.

Asked about the shutdown’s impact on air travel, Graves said the airspace is “absolutely” safe, but he added that delays are “probably going to get worse.”

“We are short thousands of air traffic controllers,” Graves said. “Then you throw not getting paid and the extra stress of that on top of it, it just makes it that much worse.”

Graves said the shutdown hasn’t hampered efforts to modernize the air traffic control system, and the goal is to have it done in three-and-a-half years. Watch the full recording here.

– Shania Shelton

… AND THERE’S MORE

Inside Scalise’s new floor team

House Majority Leader Steve Scalise is reworking his floor staff after the promotion of a new chief of staff.

Yvette Wissmann will be Scalise’s new floor director. Wissmann was deputy floor director to Eric Zulkosky, now the chief of staff. Wissmann was the policy director at the NRCC. She was also in charge of coalitions for the House Ways and Means Committee.

Brenna Elliott will be deputy floor director. Elliott was formerly a floor assistant for Scalise. Bryson Henriott will be a senior floor associate.

Scoop: A super PAC supporting Rep. Andy Barr’s (R-Ky.) Senate bid is going on air with a $500,000 ad buy. The 30-second spot from the group, Keep America Great PAC, features video of President Donald Trump praising Barr.

Barr is locked in a three-way primary to replace retiring Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.). Also running: former Kentucky Attorney General Daniel Cameron and businessman Nate Morris.

Strike scrutiny: A bipartisan group of lawmakers is pushing for details from President Donald Trump on his administration’s ongoing military strikes targeting alleged drug boats in the Caribbean and Pacific.

The new letter from Reps. Seth Moulton (D-Mass.), Don Bacon (R-Neb.), Jason Crow (D-Colo.) and Mike Turner (R-Ohio) calls on Trump to outline the legal rationale behind the strikes, lay out his plan for briefing Congress on aspects of the operations and say whether he will seek an Authorization for Use of Military Force (AUMF) from lawmakers, among other things.

The missive sets a Nov. 14 response deadline. It comes after the House Armed Services Committee received a classified Pentagon briefing on the operations last week.

Meanwhile, Secretary of State Marco Rubio is slated to brief Republican and Democratic members of the so-called “Gang of 12” on the strikes today, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said. Senate Democrats were shut out of a classified GOP briefing last week on the topic.

– Jake Sherman, Briana Reilly and Ally Mutnick

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