This is what happens when you leave huge decisions on reshaping huge swaths of the federal government to the last minute.
Speaker Mike Johnson’s House Republican Conference is in the midst of a low-grade rebellion against the GOP’s reconciliation proposal.
And since Johnson fought to put the entirety of President Donald Trump’s agenda into “one big, beautiful bill,” the competing factions within the GOP conference are fighting like hell to extract every concession they can.
Think of this situation a bit like squeezing a balloon. If you push too hard on one side, the other side bulges out. Johnson faces a similar dynamic.
If the Louisiana Republican gives in too much to the hardline conservatives in the House Freedom Caucus, moderates will bolt. If Johnson tacks too much toward moderates on an issue like SALT, the HFC and the rest of the GOP conference will bolt.
There’s one other factor to consider here: the 2026 midterm elections. This reconciliation package is the centerpiece of the GOP’s efforts to keep the House.
Moderates argue that if they lose out on SALT or Medicaid spending cuts, then it could cost them their seats and end Republican control of the House. “Moderates are the majority makers” is their refrain.
But conservatives are approaching this fight – in some ways – as if the House may already be lost in 2026. Meaning if House Republicans want major legislative wins that reshape the federal government, now is the moment. This is a subtle yet important subtext of what’s happening.
The House Budget Committee is slated to begin their markup of the reconciliation bill at 9 a.m. in Cannon 210. The panel needs to stitch together the reconciliation portions reported out by each of the 11 other House committees involved in the process. That one massive package will then be sent to the Rules Committee, which is to set on Monday to prep the legislation for the House floor.
There are no amendments allowed in the Budget Committee, so this is an up-or-down vote.
Johnson has big problems on Budget. Reps. Chip Roy (R-Texas), Ralph Norman (R-S.C.), Andrew Clyde (R-Ga.) and Josh Brecheen (R-Okla.) have all said they will vote against the bill in committee. This quartet huddled with Johnson and House Majority Leader Steve Scalise off the House floor following Thursday’s votes.
The conservatives are demanding changes to the federal matching portion of Medicaid, as well as immediate enforcement of beefed-up work requirements and a ban on undocumented immigrants. Another must-have – prompt termination of Inflation Reduction Act clean energy credits.
Despite this conservative opposition, GOP leaders assert they’re plowing ahead with today’s markup. Top Republicans believe they can flip the right-wing quartet by further explaining several elements of the bill.
We spoke to Roy and Norman Thursday. They didn’t sound like they needed anything explained to them and are clearly prepared to vote against the measure as it is.
“If they don’t [change it], I’m gonna vote no. We’ll kill it,” Norman said. “And I’ll do it. I don’t want to. But I will if they don’t come forward to give us secure commitments.”
House Budget Committee Chair Jodey Arrington (R-Texas) has a parachute, should he want it. Arrington can mark the bill up and then postpone a vote if he needs more time. Or he could dare the opponents to vote no. Both options have benefits. Sometimes it pays to put people on the spot and force them to actually vote no – not just threaten it.
The gives and takes. There are a few dynamics you should understand for the next week.
If Johnson agrees to make any changes to the underlying reconciliation bill – and he will – it must happen at the Rules Committee. That will require the consent of Roy and Norman, both members of the panel.
There are a few changes that Johnson seems nearly certain to make. He will have to speed the onset of new Medicaid work requirements. Conservatives want the new policy to go into place before 2029, perhaps in 2027. Johnson has also discussed making these work requirements uniform across Medicaid and SNAP.
But once he opens that can of worms, there are a ton of other policies lawmakers are asking for.
Florida Republicans are angry about the restrictions on the provider tax that have been inserted into the reconciliation bill. This policy deals with how states extract more Medicaid money from the federal government.
Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) wants to remove a provision that forbids legal refugees from accessing SNAP benefits.
We told you about the IRA clean energy credits. Roy wants to scrap those entirely.
Then there’s SALT. Blue-state Republicans want to raise the deduction cap for state and local taxes beyond the $30,000 in the Ways and Means bill. The GOP leadership has to agree to this. Johnson expects to reach an agreement over the weekend. Johnson said he’d have a deal at the beginning of this week, so take that with a grain of salt – pun intended.
How did we get here? These speed bumps aren’t surprising. This is a gigantic legislative grab-bag with lots of disparate priorities. We get that. It reminds us a bit of Build Back Better – which failed and led to the IRA, for what it’s worth.
The chatter about Johnson’s management of this process is getting louder.
But there are some things we should point out. Whenever we’ve seen House Republicans pass massive bills, there’s been an education process. This time there wasn’t that same sort of organized schooling. Johnson set deadlines that were artificial and overly ambitious. We understand the need to set deadlines. Pressure is oftentimes helpful. But this might have been a bridge too far.
And remember: The Senate is likely to change this whole thing.
