Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) trails Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton by just five points in a new poll of the Senate race from Texas Southern University — an indication he may be winnowing down a huge polling gap.
Paxton led Cornyn 44% to 39% in a survey of 1,500 likely GOP primary voters conducted Aug. 6-12. Another 17% were unsure. The poll was conducted via SMS by TSU’s Barbara Jordan Policy Research and Survey Center.
This is a significant improvement for Cornyn, who has trailed by much larger margins for much of the year in public and private polling. The senator’s allies have been spending millions on TV over the summer to boost his numbers. And this survey could be a sign that effort is working.
It’s not the only recent poll that has brought good news for Cornyn. The senator led Paxton by 1 point, 30% to 29% with 37% undecided in a mid-August survey from Emerson College. But that poll had a small sample size of 491 GOP voters.
A couple other notable results from the TSU survey: Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Texas), who is considering a Senate run, pulled 22% in a three-way of the race. Cornyn got 30% and Paxton 35% in that scenario.
Cornyn’s allies make the point that the pair of surveys are the first since news broke about Paxton’s divorce. Paxton led by an average of 17 points in more than a dozen polls dating back a few months. Several entities are in the field this month with new polls.
TSU also tested the Democratic primary for the Senate race. Former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-Texas), who isn’t a declared candidate, led former Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas), who is in the race, 58% to 38%. Allred led Texas state Rep. James Talarico, who has been inching toward a run, 50% to 43%.
