⚡️ The Canvass year-end report

IN THIS EDITION

Highlights from a year of polling Capitol Hill and K Street

Canvass: Dems’ midterms advantage

The 2026 issues likely to dominate Capitol Hill

Newsom seen as the most likely leader of the Democratic Party

Trump’s control of Washington slips with economy, immigration backlash

THE TOP

Highlights from a year of polling Capitol Hill and K Street

It’s time again for the annual Canvass special edition, highlighting this year’s critical insights from leaders on Capitol Hill and K Street and what they’re watching for 2026.

We’re closing out one of the most consequential years for U.S. domestic and foreign policy as Congress and the Trump administration work to reshape the country and America’s relationship with the world.

All year, our Canvass community of K Street leaders and senior congressional staffers weighed in on the top issues from both sides of Pennsylvania Avenue. They predicted the government shutdown, shared their views on redistricting and major GOP policy moves and also made some interesting forecasts for next year.

The year that was 2025. January kicked off with President Donald Trump’s second term in the White House and GOP control of both chambers of Congress.

From the start of 2025, the Canvass community predicted Trump would be effective in pursuing his agenda and notching significant legislative wins. Key among those was the massive reconciliation package, which will have ramifications for years on taxes, health care, social safety net programs and more.

The Canvass pool also saw the government shutdown coming well ahead of time, with 80% of top Hill staffers and about three-quarters on K Street predicting a lapse in funding across our spring and summer polling.

Respondents gave a thumbs down for both parties’ messaging on the 43-day-long shutdown, the longest in U.S. history.

Throughout the year, K Street leaders and top Capitol Hill staffers also expressed concern about the political impact of some key Trump administration policies, including tariffs, immigration and Medicaid.

Looking ahead to 2026. In this edition, we also highlight some of the most interesting Canvass predictions for next year. Here’s what to expect:

— Democrats have the midterm advantage, the Canvass predicts

— The top policy issues Congress is likely to address in 2026

— The most likely Democrat to fill the party’s leadership gap

— Trump’s potential backlash on immigration and the economy

You can find the full 2025 recap with help from our partners at LSG. And here’s the year’s top takeaways in a one-pager.

Join the Canvass pool! Drive the Washington conversation each month. If you’re a senior congressional staffer, sign up here to participate in The Canvass Capitol Hill. If you’re a leader downtown, sign up here to take part in The Canvass K Street.

— Elvina Nawaguna

MIDTERMS OUTLOOK

Canvass: Dems’ midterms advantage

Senior Capitol Hill aides think Democrats are the overwhelming favorite to win the House in next year’s midterm elections.

Leaders on both the Hill and K Street have been trending in this direction for months, with Canvass respondents as far back as June saying Democrats are likely to wrest control of the chamber from Republicans.

More than three-quarters of senior Capitol Hill staffers who participated in our November Canvass poll and 69% of K Street respondents of our October survey predicted midterm victories for House Democrats.

Capitol Hill respondents said redistricting, lawmaker retirements and a favorable political environment are the top reasons Democrats will enter the new year with better chances than Republicans.

Democrats’ strong showing in New Jersey and Virginia in the November off-cycle elections certainly helped boost that thinking. Former Reps. Mikie Sherrill (D-N.J.) and Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.) won their respective gubernatorial elections, boosting Democrats’ morale.

The redistricting impact. Midterm elections are historically difficult for the party that controls the White House.

President Donald Trump has urged red states to redraw their congressional maps mid-decade to create more GOP-friendly seats to insulate the party. Democrats, however, have organized a successful countercampaign in blue states, leaving the House outlook fairly unchanged.

The number of swing seats has decreased as both parties tried to shore up their vulnerable incumbents in the last regularly scheduled redistricting. But Democrats need to flip just four seats right now to reclaim the majority. That’s well within reach.

Most Canvass respondents predict the Senate will remain in GOP control next year, with divided control of Congress. The Senate map is unfavorable for Democrats; they would have to flip Maine, North Carolina and at least two other seats to take control without losing in Michigan or Georgia.

The last two years of Trump’s first term were also marked by divided government.

– Ally Mutnick

POLICY POSSIBILITIES

The 2026 issues likely to dominate Capitol Hill

With Republicans’ signature tax bill signed into law, our Canvass respondents predict that crypto policy and energy permitting will dominate the legislative landscape in 2026.

In our November polling, 56% of Hill respondents said crypto market structure reform would pass next year. Crypto policy has gained more traction in Washington this year, and Congress passed a major stablecoin regulation bill in July that President Donald Trump signed into law.

We scooped that the Senate Banking Committee would not take up any crypto-focused hearings or markups before the end of 2025. But talks are expected to continue through the new year.

Permitting optimism. About 52% of Capitol Hill staffers predict Congress will pass energy permitting reform next year, as bipartisan negotiations have gained momentum in both chambers.

The United States’ process for greenlighting energy and infrastructure projects is complicated and protracted, a concern that lawmakers from both parties and the industry share.

However, passing legislation to change the permitting laws has proven to be a difficult task for Congress. But there seems to be more interest than ever, and both Capitol Hill and K Street think 2026 will be the year something finally happens.

All about farmers. In our November polling, senior Hill staffers also said tariff relief for farmers (56%) and the Farm Bill (51%) are likely to pass next year.

The White House unveiled a $12 billion aid package for farmers in early December that doesn’t need congressional approval. The money is meant to shore up the agriculture industry as farmers have taken a hit from Trump’s trade wars.

But a looming Supreme Court decision on President Donald Trump’s tariff policies could spur congressional action next year.

– Shania Shelton

DEMOCRATIC LEADERSHIP

Newsom seen as the most likely leader of the Democratic Party

After losing control of Washington in 2024, Democrats are desperate for a party standard-bearer to fill their leadership vacuum. Here’s who our Canvass community predicted would rise to the occasion.

K Street leaders and top Hill staffers consistently named California Gov. Gavin Newsom as the most influential Democrat and pol likely to emerge as the party’s leader during President Donald Trump’s second term.

In our November Capitol Hill survey, 82% of respondents ranked Newsom above other prominent Democrats, including Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani.

Notably, only 5% of respondents picked former Vice President Kamala Harris in November’s poll. Harris’ 2024 running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, ranked at the bottom.

The party’s top two congressional leaders didn’t fare well among Canvass respondents either. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries came in at sixth place in the November survey of senior Hill aides with 18%, while Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer ranked 16th with 3%.

Similarly, when we asked K Street in October about the most likely Democratic Party leader, 71% picked Newsom, followed by Shapiro and Ocasio-Cortez.

Newsom has become one of the most vocal Democrats publicly pushing back on Trump this year, at times mimicking the Republican leader’s communication style.

Newsom vs. Trump. The California governor successfully led a ballot initiative to counter Republicans’ nationwide gerrymandering efforts by redrawing the state’s congressional map.

California’s Proposition 50, which passed in November, could help Democrats pick up as many as five House seats.

Newsom has also sued the Trump administration dozens of times, including over cuts to food and homelessness assistance programs, electric vehicle policies and the deployment of the National Guard in Los Angeles.

GOP influencers? On the Republican side, there’s no doubt that Trump has a firm hold of the party. Still, Capitol Hill and K Street leaders weighed in on which Republicans have boosted their profiles this year. Respondents ranked Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio at the top.

Vance and Rubio have both remained loyal defenders of Trump this year, fiercely shutting down criticism of the administration and winning the president’s approval.

Senior Hill staffers said Vance (75%), Rubio (61%) and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth (31%) were most successful in increasing their prominence among Trump’s base this year.

– Shania Shelton

TRUMP’S WASHINGTON

Trump’s control of Washington slips with economy, immigration backlash

The White House has scored some wins this year, but it’s come at a cost if you ask top leaders on K Street and Capitol Hill. And the numbers related to the economy really tell the story.

We’ve asked our Canvass respondents all year long what they’ve thought of President Donald Trump’s economic agenda. The results have been a consistent stream of anxiety from Hill staffers and downtowners.

That’s striking, because voters have long favored Trump’s positions on the economy in theory. But affordability — a defining boondoggle for the Biden administration — has proven to be an enduring obstacle for Trump. The labor market has slowed, inflation has remained stubbornly elevated and Trump’s approval rating has taken a significant hit.

This is a fear Washington has held since the beginning of the second Trump administration, with 81% of K Street respondents in January saying they were concerned about the president’s plan to impose a host of new tariffs. Just 10% of our survey takers said they were unconcerned.

Capitol Hill wasn’t feeling much better. Just over two-thirds of respondents were worried about tariffs in January — a number that swung up to 71% in April, when the tariffs were introduced.

There’s been widespread agreement that the Trump approach to tariffs will lead to Republicans paying a heavy price in the midterms, Capitol Hill and K Street respondents have predicted for months.

The jury is not out on the impact since then. In September, 73% of Capitol Hill staffers declared Trump’s approach to tariffs to be ineffective. On K Street, 69% agreed with that assessment in October. Even more Hill staffers said the president had been ineffective at addressing inflation — a total of 77% as of September.

Immigration. Another key pillar of Trump’s 2024 appeal to voters was his restrictive stance on immigration. But Washington has long been concerned about the potential for overreach.

Several sectors of the U.S. economy run on immigrant labor of all kinds. And Washington was clear-eyed about the risks right from the start of our 2025 polling.

Back in January, nearly three-quarters of respondents said mass deportations would harm the economy. Only about a quarter of Republican respondents thought deportations would boost the economy.

— Brendan Pedersen