The Supreme Court gifted Texas Republicans back their gerrymandered congressional map for the midterms Thursday evening, reversing a lower court ruling that invalidated the map last month.
It’s hard to overstate the importance of this SCOTUS opinion. House Republicans had suffered a string of redistricting setbacks that left many questioning the prudence of the Texas remap that started the nationwide scramble for seats. With this ruling, Republicans get five new red-leaning seats. They’re very likely to win at least three of them.
This decision is a lifeline for the GOP, coming just days before the Dec. 8 filing deadline in Texas.
Reversing a lower-court decision, the conservative majority on the Supreme Court said Texas was “likely to succeed on the merits of its claim” and that the lower court erred when it ruled the map was an illegal racial gerrymander.
Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito issued a temporary stay of the lower court ruling shortly before Thanksgiving, so Thursday’s subsequent ruling wasn’t unexpected.
For those keeping count, Republicans have secured favorable new maps in Texas, North Carolina and Missouri. Democrats notched wins in California and Utah. Ohio’s new map is somewhat of a wash. The two biggest question marks remaining — Florida and Virginia.
Democratic shuffle. This ruling most heavily affects the Democrats in the Texas delegation. They’ve already been positioning behind the scenes for the available seats in the wake of the aggressive GOP gerrymander.
The new Republican-drawn map created red districts in the Rio Grande Valley, Dallas, Houston and around Austin. It displaced Democratic Rep. Julie Johnson and drew Democratic Reps. Lloyd Doggett and Greg Casar into one district.
If Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Texas) runs for Senate, as many expect she will, most Texas Democratic incumbents will have a seat.
Democratic Rep. Marc Veasey plans to run for the new version of Crockett’s Dallas-area district if she does make a statewide bid. Veasey’s home base in Fort Worth got drawn out of his new district.
That leaves Johnson open to run for the new version of Veasey’s seat. But that district is now heavily Hispanic and many Democrats expect a bid from Domingo García, a former president of the League of United Latin American Citizens.
Meanwhile, Doggett said he’d retire if the new map held up following pressure from Casar allies. Casar will run for the Austin-area seat.
Reps. Henry Cuellar (D-Texas) and Vicente Gonzalez (D-Texas) will now have to run in districts that President Donald Trump won handily in 2024. But both plan to seek reelection. Trump issued a stunning pardon for Cuellar this week in a federal bribery and money-laundering case.
The loss of a Democratic-leaning district in the Houston area means there will only be one winnable seat for Rep. Al Green (D-Texas) or the eventual winner of the race to succeed the late Democratic Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee.
