Speaker Mike Johnson had an interesting start to his trip to London on Thursday afternoon.
Johnson arrived at Joint Base Andrews to find out that the U.S. government plane he was scheduled to take to England had mechanical issues. The Air Force offered to bump another congressional delegation from its jet to ferry the speaker to London.
But Johnson refused the offer, and instead, he flew Economy Plus on United Airlines from Dulles to London-Heathrow. Johnson has official meetings in London in honor of the United States Semiquincentennial and will be the first speaker of the House to address the British Parliament.
Back on Capitol Hill. We need to review another snafu inside the House GOP leadership, plus what it means for the endangered Republican majority and the party at large.
What’s become clear: The House GOP leadership’s current processes aren’t designed for this historically-narrow majority, and most members in the Republican Conference recognize they need to change how they operate.
With less than 10 months until Election Day, many rank-and-file Republicans feel like they’re free agents and are completely willing to buck their leaders to gain leverage. But the GOP leadership also has some blame here. They’re still putting bills on the floor that their vulnerable members oppose.
And House Republicans have a major attendance issue that they can’t seem to resolve. All of this calls into question what, if anything, GOP lawmakers can get done in the next few months.
The flub. Johnson, House Majority Leader Steve Scalise and House Majority Whip Tom Emmer lost a Tuesday vote on a labor policy bill sponsored by Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Iowa), who is running for Senate. This was a very embarrassing episode, and potentially preventable, depending on who you ask.
Hinson’s bill would change the definition of “hours worked” to exclude education and training. It was approved on a party-line vote in the Education and Workforce Committee last April but had been waiting since then for floor action. The AFL-CIO opposed the bill and, believe it or not, there are still Republicans who support organized labor.
Emmer’s whip team did what they call a “spot check” on the legislation. That means a pair of emails were sent to member offices on Friday and Monday before the vote to check if there were major concerns.
Only Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) gave the GOP leadership a heads up that he was a firm no on the legislation, according to leadership sources. Rep. Riley Moore (R-W.Va.) also gave a heads up later that he would be voting no, the sources said.
When the bill reached the floor, Fitzpatrick, Moore, plus GOP Reps. Rob Bresnahan (Pa.), Nick LaLota (N.Y.), Chris Smith (N.J.) and Jeff Van Drew (N.J.) all voted against it. The bill failed 209-215, an outcome that caught top Republicans off guard. The House GOP leadership ended up pulling two other labor bills.
Unpacking it all. After an episode like this, it’s always possible to say that some bills will fail on the floor, and that’s not a problem. But it is a problem and House GOP leaders know it. It’s a sign of weakness and disarray.
House Republican leadership has followed the same voting procedures for decades. The whip canvasses the conference for problems. The whip then reports to the speaker and the leader what he finds.
In this instance, Team Emmer said they had no reason to believe that the bill was going to fail. Emmer’s team didn’t conduct a full whip of the measure because it was too time consuming.
But now the Republican leadership acknowledges that, with this narrow majority, they are going to have to be more careful about vote counts before they put anything on the floor.
Small margins and big absences. House Republicans have a historically thin majority heading into what’s going to be a tough election year. The sudden death of Rep. Doug LaMalfa (R-Calif.) and the retirement of former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) also left them with two unexpected vacancies.
Then there’s members missing votes. Not just for a day here and there, but weeks.
Some of these absences are legitimate. Rep. Greg Murphy (R-N.C.) had surgery and is recovering. Rep. Derrick Van Orden’s (R-Wis.) wife is sick. Rep. Jim Baird (R-Ind.) got into a hit-and-run car accident, although he is back now.
Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Texas) has barely shown up for work this year, missing dozens of votes. A public schedule for his Senate campaign showed that Hunt had events this week across Texas, even though the House was in session. Hunt’s team says he’ll come back to Washington if he’s needed for a vote. But with a two-seat cushion, he’s needed for every vote.
The big picture. House Republicans have designs on a busy 2026. Johnson, Scalise and other top Republicans say they want to pass a reconciliation bill that the speaker believes will be as “beautiful” but perhaps not as big as the last package.
But the problem is that every single House Republican now has a veto over any legislation that comes to the floor.
“There’s still big things that we want to do,” Scalise said. “We are going to have to remain unified if we’re going to get them done. … I’ve been very clear. I’ve never promised we’re going to do [a second reconciliation bill]. I want to do one, but have also said we only do one if we’re all in. Every member has to be there.”
Scalise added: “There’s a narrow path. We’re not there. … One person saying no, because of this majority, could kill it.”
