House Republican leaders are on the brink of losing a key procedural vote today as Speaker Mike Johnson once again asks GOP moderates to give President Donald Trump a pass on tariffs.
Johnson’s leadership team added a provision to the rule being voted on this afternoon that would ban members from bringing up resolutions challenging Trump’s tariff regime. The ban would remain in place until August.
Johnson has done this multiple times during this Congress to protect Trump. But now, moderates have grown sick of it.
Reps. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) and Kevin Kiley (R-Calif.) both told us they’re likely to vote no, breaking with Johnson and Trump.
“I made it clear that I’m not in favor of that,” said Kiley, who opposed Johnson’s last extension of the blockade.
Bacon said tariffs aren’t good for the economy, manufacturing jobs or the agriculture industry.
“American consumers pay the tariffs and thus it is a big tax,” Bacon added. “I support giving these authorities back to Congress.”
The White House legislative affairs team and the House Republican leadership are working this vote hard. Neither the administration nor Johnson’s leadership team wants to see a flood of tariff disapproval resolutions hit the House floor, as Democrats are planning to do.
But as we’ve seen a number of times in recent weeks, rank-and-file House Republicans are looking out for their own political interests as the midterm elections grow near and aren’t as interested in Trump’s priorities.
With full attendance, it would take only two Republican defections to sink the rule. These are typically party-line votes.
But the vote could be close. Some other House GOP moderates are willing to block tariff votes a while longer, especially with the Supreme Court expected to rule on Trump’s regime soon.
Democrats are also going to offer a procedural motion that would effectively allow the House to strike the tariff language in the rule but maintain the rest of the measure.
The stakes. If Johnson’s effort fails, he’ll immediately have to deal with the fallout.
House Democrats are likely to force a vote on Wednesday on their resolution overturning Trump’s Canada tariffs. That would be a very difficult vote for House Republicans. Johnson told us he’ll need help from the White House if the administration wants to defeat it.
Trump can ultimately veto the resolution if it makes it to his desk. But that sort of rebuke from Congress would still do political damage to Trump.
Democrats’ strategy. House Democrats are preparing to send a wave of tariff votes to the floor.
Rep. Greg Meeks (N.Y.), top Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, has for months been introducing privileged resolutions to challenge Trump’s trade wars. A measure to overturn Trump’s tariffs on Mexico could be called up as soon as this week.
Another aimed at Brazil tariffs would likely be ready during the last week of February. After that, Democrats would challenge Trump’s global tariffs.
House Democrats are planning to tee up these votes one at a time in the hope it maximizes pressure on wavering Republicans. Meeks is coordinating with Sens. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) and Tim Kaine (D-Va.) and factoring in the timeline for forcing Senate votes on any successful resolutions.
