Trump's plan to save midterms? Voter ID law

IN THIS EDITION

Trump’s plan for the midterms? Pass the SAVE America Act

Kicking off the 2026 Conference. Plus, our speakers!

Vault: Trump, GOP play chicken on economic fallout from Iran war

Dem divisions emerge on Iran war powers

THE TOP

Trump’s plan for the midterms? Pass the SAVE America Act

Happy Tuesday morning.

DORAL, Fla. — House Republicans are defending a razor-thin majority amid a balky economy, ominous historical trends, a growing retirement list and a burgeoning oil crisis sparked by the chaotic U.S. war against Iran.

Among President Donald Trump’s pieces of advice to Republicans gathered here at the House GOP’s legislative retreat? Pass the SAVE America Act. That’s the legislation requiring photo ID and proof of citizenship to vote in federal elections that Senate Majority Leader John Thune insists has no path forward in the Senate.

Trump also talked about drug prices, health care and housing during his speech to rank-and-file GOP lawmakers. All of these policies face dim prospects in Congress this year.

For a restless House Republican Conference eager for a vision on how to win in 2026, Trump didn’t offer much that was terribly substantive, highlighting one of the central challenges for the party with just 238 days until Election Day. Trump isn’t terribly focused on issues that will help win hard-fought races.

For example, Trump said the SAVE America Act could “guarantee the midterms” for the GOP, while a failure to pass the bill would spell “big trouble.”

But Trump didn’t unveil any detailed plan to bring down the cost of living. That’s the issue that Democrats — and voters — insist will be the difference in November.

In fact, as Democrats continue to rail against the GOP for rising prices, Trump doubled down on his dismissal of “affordability” as a real problem for voters.

To make matters worse, Trump acknowledged that he knew attacking Iran would lead to a spike in oil prices. Expect Democrats to clip this quote in attack ads from now to Election Day. California Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom is already seizing on the comment.

As the Iran war continues, Trump seems cognizant of how rising oil prices could lead to more pain at the pump for average Americans. Oil prices dropped on Monday from their earlier highs, although gas prices are still spiking nationwide. Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest exporter of oil, said there will be “catastrophic consequences” if the Strait of Hormuz remains shut.

Trump, however, seems all over the map on the duration and scale of the war.

Trump said he’d direct the Navy to protect tankers operating in the Strait of Hormuz. In a Truth Social post later Monday night, Trump warned that “Death, Fire, and Fury will reign [sic] upon them” if the Iranians continue to block the vital passageway. “Additionally, we will take out easily destroyable targets that will make it virtually impossible for Iran to ever be built back, as a Nation, again…,” Trump declared.

But Trump can’t settle on an overarching message for the war on Iran, especially the biggest question: when will it end?

Trump on Monday repeatedly referred to the U.S.-Israeli bombing campaign as a “short-term excursion” that is “very complete.”

Trump also said, “We’ll not relent until the enemy is totally and decisively defeated.” And, here at the retreat, Trump said, “We’ve already won in many ways, but we haven’t won enough.”

All of which left GOP lawmakers and official Washington — as well as Tehran and Tel Aviv — wondering which one is the right answer.

Headwinds watch. During the opening day of the House GOP retreat, hosted for the second year running at Trump’s Doral resort, Republican leaders acknowledged that holding the House in November would be an uphill climb.

“History will tell us that the party in the majority is supposed to lose seats,” Rep. Lisa McClain, the House Republican Conference chair, said on Monday. “But I don’t know about you, history has been wrong a lot this year.”

Trump put it this way: “We’re fighting a little tradition.”

2018 was the last election cycle that House Republicans were in a similar spot. Democrats ended up gaining 41 seats in that “Blue Wave” year. Facing political headwinds that year, 34 House Republicans passed on running for another term.

After Rep. Darrell Issa’s (R-Calif.) retirement announcement on Friday, the tally for the 2026 cycle has now hit 35. And it’s only March 10.

Democrats also note that a significant portion of these retirements are in battleground seats, including Michigan’s 10th District, Arizona’s 1st District, Nebraska’s 2nd District and Issa’s seat in California’s 48th District. There are outer reach opportunities for Democrats in open seats in South Carolina’s 1st District, Kentucky’s 6th District, Montana’s 1st District and Iowa’s 2nd District.

Sticking by Trump. Trump’s approval rating is 19 points underwater, per a polling average. A January New York Times poll found 49% of Americans say they are worse off now than a year ago.

Republican leaders are, unsurprisingly, sticking by Trump, given his stranglehold on the GOP electorate. Speaker Mike Johnson said the United States was in “a new golden age.” McClain hailed Trump as a “history-defying president.”

It’s not all doom and gloom for the GOP, we’ll note. Last month, we broke down the GOP money advantage; how a potential Supreme Court decision overturning Section Two of the Voting Rights Act would boost Republicans; and how messy Democratic primaries stand in the way of a Democratic majority.

Back on the farm. Senate Republicans are preparing to move quickly on Sen. Markwayne Mullin’s (R-Okla.) nomination to lead the Department of Homeland Security.

Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), who chairs the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, told reporters the panel will hold Mullin’s confirmation hearing March 18 as long as his paperwork is completed in time.

Mullin should have an easy time getting confirmed given wide GOP support for his nomination. But Paul wouldn’t tip his hand on how he’ll handle the pick after Mullin reportedly called him a “freaking snake.” Paul told us he’s “going to reserve judgment now” but that HSGAC’s hearing will be “interesting.”

— Max Cohen and Laura Weiss

PUNCHBOWL NEWS EVENTS

Kicking off the 2026 Conference. Plus, our speakers!

On Monday night, we hosted a VIP Dinner at the Waldorf Astoria to kick off Punchbowl News’ second annual Conference, our full-day summit happening today that convenes leaders from Washington, business and media. At the dinner, Punchbowl News Founder & CEO Anna Palmer and Electronic Payments Coalition’s Managing Director Nick Simpson gave remarks to kick off the evening. Thank you to the Electronic Payments Coalition for partnering with us on this dinner as part of the Conference.

Joining us: Brooke Scannell of House Minority Whip Katherine Clark’s office; Catherine Fuchs and Stefanie Muchow of Senate Majority Leader John Thune’s office; Cesar Gonzalez of Rep. Mario Díaz-Balart’s (R-Fla.) office; Chris Bigelow of the House Appropriations Committee; Don Sisson of the House Rules Committee; Elizabeth Falcone of Sen. Mark Warner’s (D-Va.) office; Jamie Fleet, Tasia Jackson and Nd Ubezonu of House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries’ office; and Brandon Casey of the House Ways and Means Committee.

Also raising a glass: Jim Goyer and Lea Bardon of the White House; Senate Parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough; Omri Ceren of Sen. Ted Cruz’s (R-Texas) office; Reema Dodin of Sen. Brian Schatz’s (D-Hawaii) office; Tiffany Guarascio of the House Energy and Commerce Committee; Alex Latcham of Senate Leadership Fund; Mike Smith of House Majority PAC; Brooke Butler of the DCCC; Zac Moffatt and Josh Vlasto of Leading the Future, Mark Ein of Venturehouse Group and Jason Sinnarajah of the Washington Nationals.

The Conference lineup! We have some of the biggest names in Washington and corporate America at the Conference today.

– New: Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer.

– Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy.

– Sens. Pete Ricketts (R-Neb.), Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.), Angus King (I-Maine), Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) and Rep. Don Beyer (D-Va.).

– Johnson and Johnson CEO Joaquin Duato, Entrepreneur and Cost Plus Drugs Co-Founder Mark Cuban, The Carlyle Group CEO Harvey Schwartz, Northrop Grumman CEO Kathy Warden, McKinsey and Company Global Managing Partner Bob Sternfels, Hilton CEO Chris Nassetta, United CEO Scott Kirby, Children’s Hospital Association CEO Matthew Cook, Fanatics Betting and Gaming CEO Matt King, Johnson & Johnson Executive Vice President Vanessa Broadhurst, plus Michael Betz and Megan Noel of Covista.

– Moffatt and Vlasto of Leading the Future. Some news here: former Rep. Max Rose (D-N.Y.) is joining Build American AI, an affiliated 501(c)(4), as a senior adviser.

– A live taping of Fly Out Day featuring Amy Walter of the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter and our very own Ally Mutnick.

– A future-of-sports panel featuring Ein, Sinnarajah and Zach Leonsis of Monumental Sports.

Watch the livestream here starting at 9 a.m.

– Jake Sherman

Vault: Trump, GOP play chicken on economic fallout from Iran war

The world economy is still digesting the risks and implications of the wide-ranging U.S.-Israeli war with Iran. Financial markets are unnerved, to put it mildly, while Democrats are apoplectic.

But Hill Republicans remain resolute, disputing the economic risks of war with Iran even while oil prices briefly crossed the $100-dollar-per-barrel mark. Oil was trading at roughly $88 per barrel overnight. That’s still up sharply from before the Iran crisis.

“The prices will come down as quickly as they went up. You saw it today, after the president’s comments,” Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) said, echoing a line the White House has pushed to GOP lawmakers and allies.

For Democrats, rising energy prices are just one more strike against a Trump administration that seems to run headlong into price increases at every opportunity.

“You couple that with the tariffs tax that Trump has already played on people’s everyday budget, you see how this could lead to stagflation and make a bad economy even worse,” Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) said.

The market. Worldwide concern about the Strait of Hormuz — specifically, the likelihood that oil-carrying freighters traveling through will continue to eat missiles — drove the price of oil up as much as 31% in a 24-hour period.

Oil prices came down in no small part thanks to comments from President Donald Trump Monday afternoon that the war would be over “very soon.” There’s good reason to be skeptical, of course.

Still, that ebb and flow gave plenty of GOP lawmakers some comfort, along with the general hope that the conflict in Iran will wind down soon.

“I think you’ll find that the markets will respond positively, long-term,” Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.) said.

Democrats don’t buy it. Democrats’ position has been buoyed by plenty of market analysts who have stressed just how unprecedented the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has been, along with how difficult it may be to get commerce flowing at previous levels.

Plenty of Democrats say there’s a real risk of a situation that echoes the COVID-19 pandemic’s supply chain disruptions.

Here’s how Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) laid out the danger:

Is that damage already built in?

“They could stop bombing, and that would help a lot,” Warren said.

– Brendan Pedersen

THE AI INNOVATORS

We kicked off a four-part series last week exploring the ways artificial intelligence is transforming society. In our first segment, we explored the interplay between AI and health care, the role Congress and the administration are playing, as well as the policy considerations that will drive the technology into the future.

We also examined how AI is transforming the way the health care sector conducts several functions, including developing drugs, diagnosing diseases and enhancing the way providers interact with patients.

Health care is one of many industries where AI is becoming more prominent. Our next segments will dive into education, energy and the economy. Every segment will look into how different sectors are navigating the regulatory and legislative considerations around AI.

You can check out the first segment focused on health care, listen to the podcast and check back in on March 19 for our next edition.

– Shania Shelton

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