Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) is in real trouble.
The second-term senator is at serious risk of losing renomination this Saturday, five years after he voted to convict President Donald Trump during an impeachment trial following the Jan. 6 Capitol riot.
In a stunning outcome for an incumbent, Cassidy could very well come in third to his challengers, Rep. Julia Letlow (R-La.) and former Rep. John Fleming (R-La.). That would box Cassidy out of the expected runoff and shove him into retirement.
There is a high level of unpredictability in the race, especially because Louisiana just changed the structure of its primaries. But top Republican lawmakers and operatives believe Letlow, who is endorsed by Trump, will finish first, with Fleming and Cassidy fighting for second.
Letlow’s position has strengthened as she made voters aware of Trump’s backing.
“The president’s endorsement is one of the most powerful forces in a Republican primary, particularly in a red state like Louisiana,” said Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.), a former NRSC chair.
Follow the cash. All told, some $35 million has been spent on ads in the primary by the candidates, their allied super PACs and major outside groups. Cassidy’s campaign has spent $9.6 million. Letlow has spent nearly $4 million, and Fleming has dropped just $1.5 million.
Much of the outside spending has focused on hitting Letlow. Those groups spent nearly $11 million opposing Letlow, per campaign finance data. The negative advertising against Cassidy is a fraction of that amount.
Fleming refused to get out of the race when Letlow entered with a Trump endorsement. Fleming’s staying power has been remarkable. He’s found success courting voters who dislike GOP Gov. Jeff Landry and are concerned about the state’s carbon capture policies.
Final days. Cassidy told us this week that he’s confident he’ll make it to a runoff. Cassidy’s closing message will center on contrasting his legislative record with his opponents — mainly Letlow.
“I’ll continue to remind I have delivered for the state of Louisiana,” Cassidy said, pointing to support for the 2021 bipartisan infrastructure law.
Cassidy added he’ll “continue to pound that I’ve had… dozens of bills signed into law. My opponent has had zero.”
But even if Cassidy can make it to a runoff, he’ll face a daunting challenge in overcoming his support for Trump’s impeachment.
