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December 20, 2022
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THE NEW CONGRESS
What the Hill expects from 2023 and beyond
The 117th Congress was historically busy and productive. Democrats were bolstered by control of the House, Senate and White House. And they managed to secure some notable bipartisan achievements to boot.
Even though expectations from The Canvass are lower in general for the next Congress, our respondents see some areas where lawmakers could make legislative progress.
Here are the major takeaways:
| → | Next Congress, lawmakers will be less effective at passing meaningful legislation, respondents say. |
This isn’t surprising with the House set to be controlled by Republicans in January. K Street is more bearish than Capitol Hill – 60% of downtown respondents say that the 118th Congress will be less effective, compared to 53% of senior Hill staffers.
| → | If there is legislative activity, staffers expect it to center on inflation first, followed by tech company regulation. More than half – 60% – of Capitol Hill respondents say we could see action targeting inflation, followed closely by bills targeting Big Tech at 56%. |
There’s a notable partisan split here. Cost of living measures are top of mind for GOP staffers, 73% of whom said that inflation-related legislation was the most likely problem for Congress to address in the next session.
Don’t expect much overlap between parties on this issue, though. Republicans tend to call for spending cuts to address rising costs, while Democrats are more likely to seek stipends or other forms of cash assistance.
| → | For Democrats, tech regulation is the top priority, with 59% of respondents tapping it as one of their top issues. |
Another item worth tracking: About 55% of our K Street respondents believe the next Congress could crack down on a major technology company, with TikTok at the top of the list. Already, some lawmakers are pushing to ban TikTok from government devices.
This could be an area where the parties can come together. Republicans have been railing against Big Tech for years now, and TikTok is a long-running foible for the GOP. Will Democrats agree?
| → | One last thing: Cryptocurrency regulation came up as the fourth most likely issue for Congress to take up in the next session in our survey. But these results predate the collapse of crypto exchange FTX, which has prompted lots of headlines and several hearings in the last month alone. |
We’ll be checking in with The Canvass respondents in early 2023 to see how interest has developed in regulating digital assets.
— Brendan Pedersen
THE MIDTERMS
Canvass respondents were spot on when it came to midterms
Our Capitol Hill and K Street survey participants were keen observers of the 2022 midterm election. Both of our Canvass surveys were uncannily accurate at predicting overall control of both chambers of Congress, in addition to key individual Senate races.
| → | In September, Canvass Capitol Hill respondents correctly picked the outcome of the Senate races in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. These picks represented nine of the top 10 Senate races (by the time the survey was fielded, the GOP primary in New Hampshire hadn’t occurred, so the Granite State is missing from this list). |
| → | In October, Canvass K Street respondents picked nine of the top 10 Senate races right. The one the lobbyist crowd missed? Nevada, where our senior leaders downtown picked Republican Adam Laxalt over Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.). |
| → | Both Capitol Hill and K Street respondents consistently predicted throughout 2022 that Republicans would win the House and Democrats would hold the Senate. |
In August 2022, 97% of K Street respondents predicted Republicans would win the House and 76% said Democrats would control the Senate. In July 2022, 91% of Capitol Hill staffers said Republicans would win back the House, while 58% said Democrats would hold the Senate majority.
| → | Republican Hill staffers also were aware of a potential threat to the GOP’s midterm success way back in February. Seventy percent of GOP staffers said “far-right primary opponents” endangered the Republican takeover of Congress. And in November, many Republicans blamed Donald Trump-endorsed candidates for blowing key Senate races in Arizona, Pennsylvania and Georgia. |
| → | After the election, 77% of Democratic staffers credited “extreme/weak GOP candidates” for their better-than-expected midterm election showing. On the flip side, 81% of Republican staffers blamed “extreme/weak GOP candidates.” |
— Max Cohen
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THE LEGISLATION
The Canvass correctly predicted a very active Congress
The 117th Congress had a surprisingly productive session of legislating. And both K Street and Capitol Hill respondents were accurate at predicting which policies would likely succeed and which issues wouldn’t move on Capitol Hill.
| → | An overwhelming majority of Capitol Hill staffers foresaw the passage of several top priorities on the Hill throughout the year. In May 2022, 96% of staffers expected Congress to pass legislation that would address Ukrainian aid and 82% of staffers foresaw China competitiveness legislation passing. Two months later, more than half of senior staffers surveyed – 59% – correctly anticipated that prescription drug price reform would pass as well. |
| → | K Street leaders predicted several priorities in the Build Back Better legislation would pass in a repackaged form, despite initial opposition to the bill by Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.). |
In April 2022, about half of K Street respondents predicted that energy tax credits and Medicare drug-pricing negotiation would pass. Just 26% of K Street leaders thought ACA subsidies would also be addressed in this Congress.
In late July, Congress cleared the $280 billion CHIPS package, sending it to President Joe Biden’s desk. In August, Democrats passed a $740 billion tax, environment and health care package that extended Obamacare subsidies, provided billions of dollars to address climate change and allowed Medicare to negotiate prescription drug prices.
In addition, Congress has already approved $66 billion in aid to Ukraine this year. Lawmakers are considering sending an additional $45 billion as part of the omnibus to help the country fight Russia’s invasion.
| → | Our Canvass respondents also understood which issues wouldn’t make the cut this year. In May 2022, 89% of Democratic staffers and 96% of GOP staffers doubted Congress would pass federal abortion rights legislation after the Dobbs decision overturning Roe vs. Wade. |
The Women’s Health Protection Act that was introduced by Democrats– a bill that aims to codify abortion rights – passed the House this Congress but was blocked in the Senate.
— Donna Baeck
2024 WATCH
Biden and Trump get lukewarm 2024 reception
Yes, we know the next presidential election is nearly two years away. But the campaign has already kicked off, thanks to former President Donald Trump announcing his presidential bid last month.
Lawmakers in both parties don’t seem particularly excited about their 2024 presidential frontrunners. Let’s break down the data, starting with Democrats:
| → | While a whopping 88% of senior Democratic staffers said they’re entering the new Congress united – a huge shift from a year ago – only 44% of those polled said President Joe Biden should seek another term in 2024. |
About the same percentage – 45% of Capitol Hill respondents – said they didn’t know if Biden should run again while 11% said he should take a pass.
There have been questions within Democratic circles about whether Biden, 80, should step aside like top House Democrats and make way for a younger generation of party leaders.
Senior Democratic leaders on Capitol Hill and downtown both say that the Biden administration has also been ineffective at communicating major policy wins and its efforts to reduce inflation.
| → | Still, Democrats’ dissatisfaction with Biden is nothing compared with how Capitol Hill Republicans feel about Trump. Only 4% of senior Republicans said Trump should run in 2024 compared to 67% who said he shouldn’t seek the White House again. |
This data matches up well with other polling in recent weeks that has shown Trump losing significant support among the GOP base as his legal and personal problems pile up.
| → | An overwhelming majority of senior GOP staffers agree Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is the most likely Republican presidential nominee if not Trump. |
Meanwhile, 52% of senior Democrats on Capitol Hill said they expect Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg will be the Democratic nominee if Biden doesn’t run again. Vice President Kamala Harris came in second, followed by Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer.
— Heather Caygle
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