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February 22, 2023
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THE TOP
Happy Wednesday morning.
The California delegation has long been one of the most powerful – and important – in Congress.
But the Golden State’s D.C. presence is undergoing an overhaul.
Consider this:
| → | Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.), the 89-year-old senior senator who has been in office since 1992, is retiring at the end of this Congress. Feinstein is the longest-serving woman in Senate history and an icon in California politics, although she has notably slowed in recent years. |
| → | Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Calif.), first elected to the House in 1998, officially jumped into the race for Feinstein’s seat. The 76-year-old Lee joins Reps. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) – in office since 2001 – and third-term Rep. Katie Porter (D-Calif.) for what’s shaping up to be a very interesting Senate race. Other high-profile Democrats could still get into this race, including San Francisco Mayor London Breed. Senate seats don’t open up often in California, so these races tend to have crowded fields, at least initially. |
Lee, Schiff and Porter must give up their House seats to run for Senate. However, any of the three could drop out of that race and file to run for their House seats again. California’s filing deadline is in December, so that option is still available. But right now, Democratic sources suggest Schiff, Porter and Lee are “all in” for the Senate race. We’ll see how this plays out.
| → | Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi has repeatedly said she’s serving for the entire 118th Congress, but there’s a lot of skepticism about this. The large California Democratic delegation was a huge block of votes for Pelosi during her rise to power. And, of course, the 82-year-old Pelosi was replaced by another Californian, Republican Kevin McCarthy, as speaker. |
| → | Former Democratic Rep. Karen Bass, another high-profile figure in the delegation, was sworn in as mayor of Los Angeles two months ago. |
| → | Aging Democrats: Rep. Grace Napolitano is 86. Maxine Waters is 84. Anna Eshoo is 80. Doris Matsui and John Garamendi are 78. A number of other California Democrats are in their 70s. |
We’re not saying that any of these members are leaving this cycle, or that Democrats will lose control of these seats if they do. Yet it’s clear that a number of California Democrats are closer to the end of their careers than the beginning, and their departures would contribute to turnover in the delegation.
California keeps losing people. More than 500,000 people left California between April 2020 and July 2022, the Los Angeles Times reported last week.
California lost a House seat following the 2020 census, the first time that’s ever happened. Californians are sick of the high cost of housing, in particular, but crime, long commutes and other factors are playing into the recent exodus too. The Golden State still has nine million-plus more residents than Texas, but the gap is closing.
One other thing worth watching: California has gone from a projected huge budget surplus to a huge budget deficit. This is going to be a serious problem for Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom, a potential 2024 White House hopeful, and we expect the delegation will get pulled into the fight. We’ll see how it impacts this cycle’s congressional races.
Speaking of Californians: The Senate Foreign Relations Committee will vote next Tuesday on Eric Garcetti’s long-stalled nomination to be U.S. ambassador to India. The former Los Angeles mayor was first nominated for the post in July 2021 but he failed to win Senate approval. President Joe Biden re-nominated Garcetti on the first day of the 118th Congress.
Garcetti’s prospects for confirmation haven’t gotten much better since the uproar over his handling of sexual misconduct allegations against a top aide in his mayoral office. In the face of strong GOP opposition, it’s likely that Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, who just visited India, would have to burn valuable floor time to confirm Garcetti.
The White House, meanwhile, is eager to get Garcetti confirmed. The Foreign Relations Committee has a somewhat regular practice of holding over certain nominations for an additional week, so that’s possible here. But it’s worth remembering that the panel advanced Garcetti’s nomination by voice-vote in the last Congress. Several senators then placed holds on the nomination, preventing it from reaching the floor.
So ultimately, it’s up to Schumer. One Republican close to the process told us that they don’t expect much of a fight on the floor, but GOP senators such as Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) – who vehemently opposes Garcetti – would try to make it a “tough pill to swallow” for Democrats.
— Jake Sherman, Andrew Desiderio and John Bresnahan
THE SENATE ABROAD
Graham leads Africa CODEL with Dems, Cindy McCain
You don’t need us to tell you again that there’s a ton of CODEL travel this week with both chambers out of session. Dozens of senators went to the Munich Security Conference, with different groups heading across the globe from there. But we wanted to highlight an interesting one being spearheaded by Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.).
Graham is leading a group throughout Africa this week that includes Democratic Sens. Bob Menendez (N.J.), Chris Coons (Del.), Martin Heinrich (N.M.), Chris Van Hollen (Md.) and Mark Kelly (Ariz.). Menendez is chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.
According to the itinerary we obtained, Cindy McCain is joining the CODEL. McCain currently serves as the U.S. ambassador to the U.N. food and agriculture agencies. She’s based in Rome.
After leaving the Munich Security Conference this past weekend, the group headed to Zambia and then South Africa. They’ll then spend a few days in Botswana and Morocco before returning to Washington on Monday. (The itinerary, dated Jan. 19, initially included a quick stop in Djibouti for an AFRICOM briefing, but we’re told that was scrubbed.)
The document states that the purpose of the Africa trip is to “conduct fact finding missions, focused on the fight against HIV/AIDS through site visits, meetings/briefings, and informal substantive meals designed to provide a frontline look at the impact of US Government investments in PEPFAR.”
It appears that the senators are also being treated to some touristy visits. The itinerary included a Monday visit to Victoria Falls, one of the world’s largest waterfalls. It’s located on the border between Zambia and Zimbabwe.
The senators flew to South Africa Tuesday and have full days of site visits today and tomorrow focused on HIV/AIDS, including at Ratang Bana, a non-profit that helps children impacted by HIV/AIDS.
On Friday, the group will head to Botswana, where the itinerary says the recommended attire is “rugged casual.” Friday and Saturday are packed with “conservation observations,” which appear to be safari trips.
They’ll spend their final night in Casablanca, with no official business listed on this itinerary. The senators return to Washington just in time for votes next Monday.
Graham’s office declined to comment on the trip.
Also: Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) met with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman this week, writing on Twitter: “I had a productive conversation with the Crown Prince reflecting on nearly eighty years of partnership between our two countries and generations of opportunity to come.”
— Andrew Desiderio and Jake Sherman
HOUSE DEMOCRATS
McClellan in, Cicilline out
Democrat Jennifer McClellan won the special election to fill the late Rep. Donald McEachin’s (D-Va.) seat, becoming the first Black woman to represent Virginia in Congress.
McClellan, who’s served as a state legislator since 2006, handily defeated Republican Leon Benjamin by more than 40 points in the heavily Democratic, Richmond-area district. In 2021, McClellan unsuccessfully ran for governor and lost to former Gov. Terry McAuliffe in the Democratic primary.
Following McEachin’s death in late 2021, McClellan quickly amassed support from many of the Democrats in Virginia’s congressional delegation. McClellan essentially cleared the field and eased to victory in the late December primary.
Also: Rhode Island Democratic Rep. David Cicilline announced Tuesday that he would resign from Congress effective June 1. Cicilline is taking over as the president of the Rhode Island Foundation.
Cicilline won Rhode Island’s 1st District seat in 2010, when Democrat Patrick Kennedy left Congress. Cicilline, a former state representative and mayor of Providence, served two terms in the House Democratic leadership. Cicilline considered a run against Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.) for assistant minority leader, but then dropped out.
Cicilline’s decision to leave Congress will open up a seat on the House Judiciary Committee, where the Rhode Island Democrat made a name for himself as a thorn in the side of Big Tech.
The new gig – leading the Rhode Island Foundation – would appear to be a hefty pay raise for Cicilline. The former president of the foundation, Neil Steinberg, made $731,216 in 2021, according to the group’s non-profit filing with the IRS. Members of the House make $174,000.
The larger question here is what does this portend for Cicilline’s political future. Sen. Jack Reed (D-R.I.) is 73 and is up for re-election in 2026. Should Reed decide not to run again, Cicilline will certainly be mentioned as a potential candidate.
— Jake Sherman and Max Cohen
PRESENTED BY ALIBABA
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DIGITAL DISPATCH
Emmer wants to block Federal Reserve from launching digital dollar
New: House Majority Whip Tom Emmer will introduce a bill to curtail the Federal Reserve’s ability to develop and offer a central bank digital currency, better known as the digital dollar.
The bill’s title – the CBDC Anti-Surveillance State Act – sums up the GOP position on a theoretical digital dollar nicely. Republicans have said they’re concerned that a government-backed digital currency would give the federal government unprecedented access to Americans’ spending habits.
Some economists have suggested the crypto equivalent of the U.S. dollar could help shore up national security and help America compete against China – both of which could theoretically appeal to Republicans. But GOP lawmakers are not there yet.
You can read a copy of the legislation here. It seeks to do three things:
| → | Block the Fed from offering “products or services directly to an individual,” effectively banning a retail CBDC. |
| → | Ban the Fed from using a CBDC to “implement monetary policy.” |
| → | Require the Fed’s Board of Governors to consult with regional Fed banks before launching a “study or pilot program” revolving around CBDCs, as well as issue quarterly reports on “findings and determinations made” on the subject. |
You might be asking yourself if the creation of a digital dollar is something the Federal Reserve is itching to do? The answer, by every public indication, is no. Fed Chair Jay Powell has repeatedly said the U.S. central bank would not pursue a CBDC without explicit congressional authorization to do so.
But even with slim odds of passing in a Democratic Senate for now, we think it would be a mistake to wave this off as a simple messaging bill from House Republicans. Emmer is by far one of Congress’ top crypto advocates, and since becoming majority whip, he’s also one of the industry’s most high-profile allies.
Emmer’s bill will also see significant buy-in from other Republicans, particularly on the House Financial Services Committee. Co-sponsors will include GOP Reps. French Hill (Ark.) Warren Davidson (Ohio), Byron Donalds (Fla.), Pete Sessions (Texas), Barry Loudermilk (Ga.), Young Kim (Calif.), Mike Flood (Neb.) and Ralph Norman (S.C.).
– Brendan Pedersen
THE CAMPAIGN
New: Democratic group EMILY’s List is targeting 23 House Republicans over their abortion rights stances ahead of 2024. The focus on abortion was a strategy that paid dividends in Democratic overperformance in the 2022 midterms.
For House election trackers, this list is a good sense of what seats Democrats are eyeing next year as they seek to flip the chamber blue:
Republican Reps. David Schweikert (Ariz.), Juan Ciscomani (Ariz.), John Duarte (Calif.), David Valadao (Calif.), Mike Garcia (Calif.), Ken Calvert (Calif.), Michelle Steel (Calif.), Lauren Boebert (Colo.), Maria Elvira Salazar (Fla.), Mariannette Miller-Meeks (Iowa), Ashley Hinson (Iowa), Zach Nunn (Iowa), Don Bacon (Neb.), Tom Kean (N.J.), Nick LaLota (N.Y.), George Santos (N.Y.), Anthony D’Esposito (N.Y.), Mike Lawler (N.Y.), Marc Molinaro (N.Y.), Brandon Williams (N.Y.), Lori Chavez-DeRemer (Ore.), Brian Fitzpatrick (Pa.) and Jen Kiggans (Va.).
Here’s the press release targeting Ciscomani.
For reference: We reported earlier this week on the list of 19 House Republicans that the NRCC views as their party’s most endangered incumbents. That list largely overlaps with the EMILY’s List tally. Here are the members the NRCC classified as vulnerable that aren’t getting targeted by EMILY’s List: GOP Reps. John James (Mich.), Ryan Zinke (Mont.) and Derrick Van Orden (Wis.).
— Max Cohen
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