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March 3, 2023
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THE TOP
Happy Friday morning.
It’s no secret that Senate Republicans aren’t enthusiastic about the possibility that Donald Trump could be their party’s 2024 presidential nominee. A few GOP senators have endorsed Trump, but the majority of Senate Republicans will be looking elsewhere for their next White House hopeful.
Florida GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis is popular nationally, of course, and some Senate Republicans have defended the former three-term House member against attacks from Trump.
But Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.), who’s looking increasingly like a presidential candidate, would be a welcome alternative for many of them if he gets into the race.
Scott, 57, is well-liked by senators in both parties and is popular back home in South Carolina. Yet the question remains whether he can appeal to a broader GOP electorate — and, perhaps more importantly, whether that electorate is even prepared to cut Trump loose in the first place.
Scott is a staunch conservative but not a culture warrior, a plus for GOP moderates. A Black Republican in a party that’s overwhelmingly white, Scott’s life story is an inspiring one. The grandson of an illiterate cotton farmer whose single mom worked double shifts to support him, Scott has risen to the upper ranks of American politics.
To some, Scott is the proper blend of sunny Reagan Republicanism with a Tea Party edge. And despite being a career pol – Scott was first elected to public office in 1995 – he doesn’t have the Washington insider vibe.
“When you think about people who could sit down in the living rooms in Iowa and New Hampshire, you see him there and you can see people saying, ‘Hey, that’s the person I support,’” said Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah), the 2012 Republican nominee and a solid anti-Trumper. “If he decides to run, he’ll be the real deal.”
“It looks to me like Tim is going to run in the lane ‘It’s morning in America,’” said Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.), a reference to the famous 1984 Reagan reelection ad. “And I think there’s clearly a lane for that message. Is it a one-lane gravel road or is it a 12-lane interstate? I don’t know, but he’ll find out.”
Scott has a conservative voting record, and his positions on abortion, guns, taxes, and immigration put him firmly on the right side of the GOP Conference.
His biggest legislative win was helping create “opportunity zones” as part of the 2017 Trump tax cuts. Those allow tax deferrals for investors in distressed communities. The concept plays into Scott’s “Opportunity Agenda,” a mantra you hear over and over from him. And you can see it in his official bio and the memoir Scott released last summer.
Scott won a House seat in 2010 after a long stint on the Charleston County Council. He was appointed to the Senate in January 2013 by then S.C. Gov. Nikki Haley – whom he may end up running against in the GOP presidential primary – to replace the retiring Republican Sen. Jim DeMint.
Scott won a special Senate election in 2014 and was then reelected in 2016 and 2022. Scott is the first Black senator elected in the South since the 1880s and one of only 11 Black senators in U.S. history.
Perhaps Scott’s toughest challenge is that with Trump and DeSantis dominating the headlines, he may be seen in Republican circles as more as a potential vice president than the top of the ticket.
With Trump and former Vice President Mike Pence — another potential 2024 candidate — going in different directions, Scott would be an intriguing choice as the former president’s running mate, were Trump to secure the nomination. Scott has taken pains to avoid criticizing Trump in media interviews.
Scott’s fellow South Carolina Republican senator, Sen. Lindsey Graham, has already endorsed Trump. But Graham acknowledged Scott would likely draw much more support among Senate Republicans.
“Nothing against [Scott], I thought President Trump was a good president on all the things that I cared about… and I feel some loyalty to help him,” Graham said. “Tim would be a great candidate if he chooses to run. He’s certainly in the top one or two for VP, for sure.”
However, there are a number of Scott’s current colleagues who are convinced he can win the GOP nomination, even with Trump and DeSantis in the race.
“Tim can win. He can win the presidency,” said Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.), another Trump critic. “The former president, his day is past. We lost the House, we lost the presidency, and his candidates lost us the Senate. So if we want to win, we need somebody who can win.”
When asked whether DeSantis could win the White House, Cassidy responded: “I don’t know about that, but I think Tim Scott can.”
Scott, for his part, has barely talked to the press in the Capitol since last summer, preferring TV interviews with friendly hosts or conservative media outlets, another sign of a potential presidential run.
“I think very highly of Tim Scott,” Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) said. “I’m not going to presume to speak for my colleagues. But he is very bright, experienced, and has an inspiring life story. And I think – along with Nikki Haley and Chris Christie – we’ve got a lot of potentially good choices.”
– Andrew Desiderio and John Bresnahan
PUNCHBOWL NEWS EVENTS
Aguilar on his future plans, Biden and bagels
Our very own Heather Caygle sat down with House Democratic Caucus Chair Pete Aguilar Thursday at Punchbowl News’ “Cocktails and Conversation” during the House Democratic retreat in Baltimore. Aguilar dished on his future ambitions, how he views President Joe Biden’s reelection race and what his most-used emoji is.
Here are our top takeaways:
| → | Aguilar doesn’t have any intentions to run statewide in California, telling us he’s “a House guy.” The California Democrat wouldn’t answer directly when asked if he wanted to be speaker one day but made clear he’s backing Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries for the job in 2024. |
| → | In other California political news, Aguilar said he won’t be endorsing in the crowded California Senate race that already features Democratic Reps. Adam Schiff, Barbara Lee and Katie Porter as contenders. |
| → | Aguilar said President Joe Biden’s intention to sign the disapproval resolution repealing the new D.C. criminal code is “disappointing for me and anybody who believes in home rule.” Despite that, Aguilar said Biden has his full support for reelection. |
| → | On an issue close to our heart, Aguilar said he isn’t part of the House Bagel Caucus. “My job is to represent the entire Democratic Caucus,” Aguilar said. “So where does this end? If I joined the Bagel Caucus, the Waffle Caucus is gonna get upset. And then I’m going to have to join the Pancake Caucus.” |
| → | What member of Congress would Aguilar want to be stranded on a desert island with for five years? Rep. Derek Kilmer (D-Wash.). |
| → | Aguilar’s favorite GOP member: Rep. Dan Newhouse (R-Wash.). |
| → | Aguilar’s favorite food in the Capitol: &pizza or a buffalo chicken wrap from Longworth. |
| → | Aguilar’s first concert: Sublime and No Doubt in the 1990s. |
| → | Aguilar’s most used emoji while in D.C.: The melting face. |
Also raising a glass with us at the event following the Aguilar interview: Jeffries, House Minority Whip Katherine Clark, former Speaker Nancy Pelosi, former Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, House Assistant Democratic Leader Jim Clyburn, Reps. Annie Kuster (D-N.H.), Darren Soto (D-Fla.), Jamaal Bowman (D-N.Y.), Nanette Barragán (D-Calif.), Marc Veasey (D-Texas), Sara Jacobs (D-Calif.), Shontel Brown (D-Ohio), Joe Morelle (D-N.Y.), Chellie Pingree (D-Maine) and Glenn Ivey (D-Md.).
— Max Cohen
ANNAPOLIS REPORT
Moore dishes on Maryland’s FBI HQ bid
We caught up with Maryland Democratic Gov. Wes Moore on the sidelines of the House Democratic retreat to chat about an issue we’re tracking very closely: The competitive contest between Maryland and Virginia to host the new FBI headquarters.
Moore, unsurprisingly, is a fierce advocate for Maryland’s bid. The Old Line State will present its case before the General Services Administration next week. A delegation from Virginia will make its case to the GSA separately.
Moore argued that if the Biden administration judges the two bids on the criteria they’ve set out, “Maryland wins this competition hands down.”
The recently-elected Moore told us Maryland’s bid is “the most cost-effective” location for the federal government to choose. Maryland has the advantage of already hosting leading cybersecurity institutions, Moore added, a central focus of the bureau’s future mission.
Plus, Moore contrasted the equity considerations of Virginia’s proposed site in Fairfax County with Maryland’s two options in Prince George’s County. Maryland lawmakers, led by Rep. Steny Hoyer (D), have pushed to make equity a major factor in the GSA’s decision.
Here’s Moore:
But out of the five criteria for the GSA’s consideration of the new headquarters, proximity to the FBI Academy in Quantico is weighted significantly more than the others, including equity. Moore scoffed at the proximity criteria as a ninth-inning switch that shouldn’t be prioritized.
The stakes here are incredibly high for both states. An influx of jobs and federal investment will accompany the new multi-billion dollar FBI headquarters, and each state’s congressional delegation is uniting to lobby the GSA. The contest is driving a wedge between Maryland and Virginia Democrats, who are more used to being aligned on key issues.
— Max Cohen
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DIGITAL DISPATCH
Crypto Q&A: Tillis on what’s possible in a divided Congress
One of the Senate’s top bipartisan dealmakers has some thoughts on the art of the possible as Washington mulls the future of crypto.
Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) has emerged as an increasingly key player in several bipartisan packages that have cleared the Senate and become law in recent years. But crypto might represent a policy sweet spot for Tillis.
A member of both the Senate Banking and Finance committees, Tillis also happens to share a homestate with House Financial Services Committee Chair Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.), who has made digital asset legislation a top priority.
Here are the top takeaways from our conversation with Tillis:
Tillis is more skeptical about crypto than he used to be. The North Carolina Republican told us he’s had “ongoing discussion and debate” with his staff about crypto in the months since the crypto exchange FTX collapsed.
More from Tillis:
But Tillis hasn’t given up on the sector, either. “I believe digital assets, cryptocurrency are here to stay,” Tillis said, adding that the United States needs to “figure out a way” to regulate it.
Tillis says the industry needs to think more seriously about self-regulation before Congress steps in.
Self-regulation isn’t an alternative to meaningful government oversight. But Tillis said that it would be considerably easier for Congress to establish best practices if the sector took greater strides to organize itself with some basic principles.
“This could be a Congress where we can talk about some self-imposed standards, methods of behavior that the industry needs to coalesce around, and then what sort of regulatory regimen we should layer on top of it,” Tillis said.
The Senate should follow the House on crypto – unless the House can’t get a bipartisan bill done.
Tillis cheered the House Financial Services Committee’s approach, where Democrats and Republicans spent much of the 117th Congress hammering out starting principles behind a stablecoin reform bill.
Now, Tillis said the Senate needs to “work with the House to see what is possible for them, what they’re willing to pursue, that is going to produce some level of support from Democrats.”
Congress could use digital asset reform to address other gaps in banking regulation.
If the banking industry has had a single complaint since the passage of Dodd-Frank reform, it’s that too many fintech firms offer bank-like services without bank-like regulation. Public data, including banks’ vanishing share of the U.S. mortgage market, often backs that up.
Tillis told us that crypto reform could dovetail nicely with a bill that addresses “fintechs that are operating like banks without any of the regulatory constraints that banking and credit unions have to deal with.”
– Brendan Pedersen
THE LEADERS
ICYMI: The second profile in our latest editorial project, The Leaders, landed earlier this week. We interviewed Atlanta Mayor Andre Dickens, who said he wants to make the city a leading tech hub. Dickens also told us he’s working to balance Atlanta’s growth so that all the area’s residents can benefit from its economic development. Watch the full video of our interview with Dickens here.
The Leaders officially launched on Feb. 14, featuring Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt who wants his oil-and-gas state to get in on the clean energy revolution. Check back in as we release two more profiles in the coming weeks.
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