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August 8, 2023
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PRESENTED BY
THE TOP
Happy Tuesday morning.
News: The White House is expected to formally ask Congress for supplemental funding for Ukraine and domestic disaster relief as soon as this week, according to five sources familiar with the matter.
While the exact timing of the request remains fluid, the funding proposal will tee up a high-stakes political battle when Congress returns from recess. This will be a major test of U.S. support for Ukraine that could see Republican defense hawks join forces with the Biden administration against Donald Trump-aligned conservatives.
Most importantly, it will come as Ukraine is in the midst of a slow-moving counteroffensive against Russia. And it comes on the heels of the annual NATO summit during which the United States and other Western allies pledged long-term support for Kyiv.
The amount the Biden administration will request for the supplemental package is unclear. One source told us “north of $10 billion,” which was confirmed by others, but the figure — and when the request will be sent to the Hill — is still under debate inside the administration.
The White House didn’t respond to a request for comment late Tuesday night.
On Monday, the Army’s acquisitions chief told reporters that the Pentagon was working on a funding package for Ukraine that lawmakers could consider this fall. Pentagon officials have said they want to use this legislation as a vehicle to help replenish U.S. weapons stockpiles that have been drawn down to provide ammo and equipment for Ukrainian forces.
The United States has supplied more than $43 billion in direct military aid to Ukraine since the Russian invasion in February 2022. There has been tens of billions of dollars in economic and humanitarian support on top of that as well. Overall U.S. spending authorized by Congress — including bolstering NATO allies — has totalled more than $110 billion.
It’s far from certain that Congress will end up sending this new aid package to President Joe Biden’s desk. Speaker Kevin McCarthy has said that Congress shouldn’t blow past the $886 billion defense spending cap agreed to as part of the debt-limit deal. McCarthy is loath to put something on the floor that would divide his conference — especially on a controversial issue such as Ukraine.
Remember: 70 House Republicans voted last month to cut off funding for Ukraine. That’s nearly a third of the GOP Conference. And Trump, the leading Republican candidate for 2024, has been openly hostile to more Ukraine funding.
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has been on the opposite side of this debate, pushing the White House to request a robust funding package for Ukraine and other defense-related priorities. McConnell has slammed the existing defense cap as “totally inadequate.” The Kentucky Republican has been a reliable partner for the White House as they’ve pushed through a variety of Ukraine-focused bills since the Russian invasion.
In addition to the GOP divisions, another problem is floor time. Both chambers will be focused on preventing a government shutdown at the end of September and passing a reconciled version of the annual defense authorization measure. The Senate also needs to pass its version of the FAA reauthorization bill.
Also: We’re told that the funding request could include money for Taiwan’s military, too. This could be viewed as a sweetener for House Republicans, whose funding bills allocated more for Taiwan than the Senate.
— Andrew Desiderio, John Bresnahan and Jake Sherman
Reminder: Join us on Friday, Sept. 8 at 12:30 p.m. CT/1:30 p.m. ET for our first event back from recess. We’re sitting down with Sen. John Hoeven (R-N.D.) and Rep. Kelly Armstrong (R-N.D.) to discuss challenges facing small business owners in rural America. RSVP here if you want to attend in Bismarck, N.D., or watch on the livestream!
ISSUE 1
Buckeye State goes to the polls
Ohioans will head to the polls today to vote on a ballot initiative that would raise the threshold for amending the state’s constitution.
What’s it all about: Voters will decide whether to set the bar at 60% to amend the state’s constitution. The proposition is called Issue 1. There will be a constitutional amendment on the ballot this November to codify abortion rights in the Ohio Constitution. The question for voters today is whether the threshold will be at a simple majority or 60%.
Ohio Republicans such as Rep. Jim Jordan have been pushing for Issue 1’s passage to prevent Democrats from permanently protecting abortion rights.
We spoke to several Republicans and Democratic lawmakers, operatives and operators over the last 24 hours on this matter. The general consensus is that Democrats will prevail and the ballot initiative will fail, opening the door to the passage of the abortion-related constitutional amendment in November.
One source said that 1.2 million voters have already turned out and Republicans assume the vast majority of those are against the proposed amendment.
The result also could have implications for Ohio’s 2024 Senate race, which could very well decide which party controls that chamber.
Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose, one of three Republicans running to face Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) next year, has been the most prominent supporter of Issue 1. If the referendum is defeated, LaRose would have the most to lose.
“Frank LaRose has wrapped his arms around this issue and staked his entire political career [on this]. He has spent the entirety of the summer campaigning on this issue, to the detriment of his day job,” Ohio Democratic Party Chair Elizabeth Walters told us. “He’s taking a really big bet here.”
Democrats need all the help they can get in Ohio, a state where former President Donald Trump remains popular. It’s one of many reasons why Brown will have a tough race next year.
“It’s not about momentum or no momentum. What this is about is clarifying choices,” Walters said. “It provides a really clear contrast about the choice Ohio voters will have to make next year. That will clarify for voters who’s on their side.”
LaRose has explicitly linked the ballot measure to abortion, telling reporters in June, “This is 100% about keeping a radical pro-abortion amendment out of our constitution.”
But messaging advice from OnMessage, a GOP polling firm, has instructed Republicans to do the opposite and point out that Issue 1 doesn’t mention abortion.
“If Issue 1 does not pass then a lot of things are at risk,” Rep. Max Miller (R-Ohio) told us Monday. “Not only abortion but also gun ownership and possession, redistricting, education curriculum for our children and other big issues. All these things will be at risk because a simple majority will be able to fundamentally alter our constitution on a whim.”
Democrats believe — and many Republicans privately acknowledge — that the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision gave Democratic candidates a major boost in the 2022 midterms. And it was a winning issue even in red states such as Kansas, where voters rejected a proposal to limit abortion access.
— Jake Sherman and Andrew Desiderio
INVESTIGATION NATION
McCaul’s subpoena approach enters new phase
If you ask Rep. Greg Meeks about his counterpart on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, the New York Democrat will tell you that he disagrees with Chair Michael McCaul’s (R-Texas) subpoena approach. But try to connect McCaul’s oversight of the Biden administration to House Oversight Committee Chair James Comer (R-Ky.) or House Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), and Meeks will cut you off.
“It’s different,” Meeks told us. “The relationship, the way we work together is nowhere near what Comer and Jordan are doing.”
The distinction Meeks made is indicative of the unique approach McCaul has taken toward his oversight duties this Congress. While other House GOP chairs have adopted a more combative posture with Biden officials, often issuing blanket requests for documents, McCaul told us he prides himself on targeted asks and productive working relationships.
“When you do it that way, that looks more reasonable. You’re not just getting a fishing expedition,” McCaul said.
McCaul is now entering a less high-profile stage of his investigative work. In the spring, the Texas Republican engaged in a drawn-out cat-and-mouse game with Secretary of State Antony Blinken over whether the panel could view a Kabul Embassy dissent cable. The document was crucial to McCaul’s investigation of the chaotic U.S. military withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021.
After threatening to hold Blinken in contempt of Congress, McCaul succeeded in viewing the dissent cable and extending access to rank-and-file members of the committee. Now, with the two-year anniversary of the withdrawal looming, McCaul is yet again weighing holding Blinken in contempt over refusal to hand over more Afghanistan-related documents.
McCaul subpoenaed State for “the collection of underlying documents used to produce the State Department’s After-Action Review” on July 18. The deadline of July 25 has come and gone. Here’s what the chair told us before leaving for recess:
“With the two year anniversary popping up, you know, we’re going to have to consider if they don’t comply and then moving forward again with a contempt proceeding.”
State Department spokesperson Matt Miller said that State is producing documents and chided McCaul for going public with contempt threats.
Meeks also struck a similar tone, accusing McCaul of using his subpoena power “for purposes of getting publicity.”
“It’s hearing by subpoena. I think the State Department has been very cooperative,” Meeks said. “I don’t think there’s a need to subpoena. I think it’s just asking and talking and I think there’s a cooperative spirit there.”
For his part, McCaul said he is simply asserting his congressional oversight power to get to the bottom of the withdrawal debacle.
“The Biden administration’s failure in Afghanistan is a stain on America’s reputation abroad and the State Department’s lack of transparency is a disgrace to our veterans,” McCaul added.
McCaul has also subpoenaed for access to China-related documents that he hopes will shed light on how the United States dealt with Chinese companies that were suspected of human rights abuses. State is producing documents on a rolling basis on this front.
— Max Cohen
PRESENTED BY FUEL CELL & HYDROGEN ENERGY ASSOCIATION
America needs clean, domestic hydrogen to reach our goals.
Additionality would put an unnecessary and inequitable burden on producers.
THE CAMPAIGN
Future Forward USA Action has a new nationwide cable spot up that accuses Republicans of looking to jack up costs for the middle class while President Joe Biden pushes to lower them. This is going to be the kind of contrast ad we will see a lot for the next 15 months.
— Jake Sherman
PRESENTED BY FUEL CELL & HYDROGEN ENERGY ASSOCIATION
Don’t let additionality set back clean hydrogen. Learn more.
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