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PRESENTED BY

BY JOHN BRESNAHAN, ANNA PALMER AND JAKE SHERMAN
WITH MAX COHEN AND CHRISTIAN HALL

THE TOP

Good Wednesday morning.

The news: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began late Wednesday evening, kicking off the most significant military incursion in Europe since World War II.

The White House has made abundantly clear that no U.S. troops will be on the ground in Ukraine, but make no mistake about it – President Joe Biden is now a wartime president. Biden is scheduled to address the nation at noon today.

Russian air and missile attacks were reported throughout Ukraine, and ground forces hit the country from three different directions, including Odessa in the south and via Belarus in the north. Russia also launched cyberattacks against Ukrainian governmental and defense computer systems. Long lines of Ukrainians streamed out of the capital city, Kyiv, toward the west. There were reports of bombings in Kyiv Thursday morning. Ukranians were trying to get their money out of ATMs and find fuel for their cars. 

The Russian attack unfolded even as its ambassador was denying any such offensive during an emergency meeting of the U.N. Security Council. Sergiy Kyslytsya, the Ukrainian representative, responded angrily, telling his Russian counterpart “There is no purgatory for war criminals. They go straight to hell, ambassador.”

A defiant Russian President Vladimir Putin said this in a speech Thursday morning: “Whoever tries to stand in our way or create threats for our country and people should know Russia’s response will be immediate and lead you to consequences you have never encountered in your history,” per the FT’s Moscow Bureau Chief Max Seddon. Seddon reported that Putin said he aims to “‘to defend people who have been victims’ of ‘the Kyiv regime’ and ‘demilitarize and de-Nazify Ukraine’” – a call that amounts to regime change of Russia’s democratically elected neighbor.

Biden spoke with Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelensky shortly before midnight. Here’s the readout from the White House:

President Zelenskyy reached out to me tonight and we just finished speaking. I condemned this unprovoked and unjustified attack by Russian military forces. I briefed him on the steps we are taking to rally international condemnation, including tonight at the United Nations Security Council. He asked me to call on the leaders of the world to speak out clearly against President Putin’s flagrant aggression, and to stand with the people of Ukraine. Tomorrow, I will be meeting with the Leaders of the G7, and the United States and our Allies and partners will be imposing severe sanctions on Russia. We will continue to provide support and assistance to Ukraine and the Ukrainian people.

There are a lot of dynamics to cover, and we’re going to try to get to them all.

The U.S.-Western response:

→ U.S. boots on the ground: White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said late Wednesday that “there’s no scenario” Biden would send American soldiers to Ukraine to fight against Russia. In recent weeks, Biden has shifted U.S. forces to NATO allies that border Russia or Ukraine, and more deployments of American troops to Europe are possible as the crisis unfolds.

It’s still unclear what Putin’s ultimate intentions are. Will Russian forces attempt to seize and occupy all of Ukraine, or will they dismember it and grab portions closest to the Russian border? Ukraine – which covers an area roughly the size of Texas – has a population of more than 44 million, making a long-term Russian occupation of the entire nation an extraordinarily difficult task.

→ Sanctions: The European Union is planning its “strongest … harshest package” of sanctions targeting Russia, per the AP in Brussels. The United States is going to have to follow suit.

We anticipate Biden will announce a new package of sanctions today aimed at Russian banks and technology firms. The White House has signaled that new export controls are possible, as well. Biden will come under intense pressure for a more dramatic move, perhaps calling for the expulsion of Russian banks from the SWIFT financial system, a hugely impactful step that could affect everyone in Russia. If Biden stops short of some of the harshest measures, he’ll open himself up to criticism from Capitol Hill. Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chair Robert Menendez (D-N.J.) said in a statement early Thursday morning that he would work to ensure the U.S. government keeps its “responsibility to exact maximum costs on Putin, the Russian economy, and those who enabled and facilitated this trampling of Ukraine’s sovereignty.”

The price of oil is skyrocketing this morning. As of 5:30 this morning, the price of WTI crude oil was $100 per barrel, the highest it has been since 2014. The White House has said that it may release oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to help keep U.S. gas prices down.

→ What’s next for Congress? There are tons of statements from lawmakers in both parties calling on the Biden administration to punish Putin and Russia – and there’s no doubt the White House will do so. But the larger question is does Congress need to give Biden additional authority to respond to the crisis? This is something we’ll be keeping a close eye on in the coming days. 

→ Ukraine supplemental? Congress is trying to wrap up the FY 2022 omnibus spending bill, which currently includes roughly $750 million in military and economic aid for Ukraine. That number is going to rise dramatically. How much it will increase is the big question.

The Biden administration has told congressional leaders that it could need as much $1 billion for humanitarian efforts in Ukraine in the case of a Russian invasion. Congress will also seek to send more money to the Ukrainian military. However, the situation on the ground there could change quickly, and this may impact how any U.S. aid flows and to whom. Will a Ukrainian government still be in place to receive American military aid in a few weeks? What would the Russian reaction be toward U.S. military aid that’s quickly turned against Russian troops? At this point, there are more questions than answers.

We do expect to see additional pressure to raise the U.S. defense budget, which was already slated to jump up by $25 billion. More money may go toward NATO allies on the frontline positions with Ukraine or Russia.

→ Briefings: The Senate will get an unclassified briefing on the situation in Ukraine at 5 p.m. today. The House will follow at 6:30 p.m. The briefers are expected to include Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, Joint Chiefs Chair Mark Milley and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, according to sources familiar with the situation. The information that lawmakers will get over the phone will be limited. We anticipate that senior administration officials will be on Capitol Hill early next week as Congress returns.

→ Turtle Bay: The U.N. Security Council will meet at noon to consider a resolution condemning the Russian invasion. Russia and China both have permanent seats on the council, so either can – and will – block any such measure.

The politics:

Biden has one of the toughest stretches of his presidency coming up. Biden has vowed to announce his nominee for the Supreme Court in the next few days. The president also has to contend with the biggest ground war in Europe since World War II. This will all come together next Tuesday night in the Capitol, when Biden will deliver his State of the Union address. 

Biden had hoped to use this speech to Congress to reset his presidency, in some respects. Biden’s plan, according to administration officials, was to talk about his policy successes, discuss how the United States had turned the corner in the Covid-19 crisis and outline what he wanted to accomplish in the next few months.

Biden may still try to do that Tuesday night, but much of that will be swamped by one of the most significant changes in the geopolitical landscape since the end of the Cold War. Biden will almost certainly now seek to talk about how he plans to aid Ukraine as it’s being attacked by Russia. He’ll have an uninterrupted opportunity to make the case for his policies and world view.

Democrats are trying to make the case that now is not the time for partisan squabbling, and they emphasize that the U.S. and its allies must stay unified. The biggest opportunity for criticism here – and one we’re certain to hear in the coming days – centers around whether Biden and Congress should’ve put pre-invasion sanctions on Russia. There are good arguments on both sides, but at this point the discussion is academic. This was a decision the Biden administration made in coordination with European allies, many of whom have significant economic ties to Putin’s country. 

The people to watch:

→ Menendez and Sen. Jim Risch (R-Idaho): The chair and ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee are going to be the center of gravity when it comes to sanctions in the coming weeks. Risch has a Republican-only bill that he authored before the Senate went out of session, but we believe that there will be new bipartisan efforts once Congress returns next week.

→ Sens. Mark Warner (D-Va.) and Marco Rubio (R-Fla.): The chair and ranking member of the Senate Intelligence Committee will have a lot to say about what may come next in Eastern Europe. In the past, the panel has been generally pretty bipartisan, although the strain of the Trump era still shows.

→ Sens. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.), Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), Chris Coons (D-Del.) and Rob Portman (R-Ohio): These are some of the most active lawmakers when it comes to foreign relations and Ukraine in particular. What they say helps shape foreign policy on the Hill and at the White House. 

→ The leadership: Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell will set the tone for Congress. They will get the most sensitive intelligence assessments and have the biggest impact on the direction of the congressional response to the war in Ukraine. 

→ Former President Donald Trump: An extraordinary situation has unfolded in recent days as Trump has lashed out at Biden and praised Putin. There’s nothing like this in U.S. history as far as we can remember. The Republican leadership and senior ranks of the party have basically ignored Trump on this issue, and they’ll continue to do so.

Yet this could become a serious problem within the GOP the longer this situation goes on. The November elections are less than nine months away. Republicans already blame Biden for provoking the Ukraine invasion by botching the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan last year. Can they back Biden now on Ukraine while the leader of their party – and Trump is the leader – rails against the president? What will this mean for Trump’s own future? 

Important context: Rubio to Jake Tapper on CNN’s “State of the Union” last night.

→ Rubio on Russia’s long-term problems in Ukraine: “I don’t mean to sound defeatist about this, but the bottom line is, Russia has the military ability to take Ukraine, if it wants to take it.

“Its problem is not going to be that. Its problem is going to be, now it has to govern it. Now it has to stay there. The Ukrainians — there’s a reason why you don’t see millions of Ukrainians abandoning their cities and families. They’re going to stay and they’re going to fight. 

“And they’re not just going to fight now. They’re going to fight after the big invasion is over, while these guys are occupying. This is — I think, if any nation [on] Earth has learned how expensive and difficult it is to occupy a country that a large number of people that may not want you there, especially long term, it’s us.”

→ Why Americans should care about Ukraine: “Look, I think we always owe an obligation to the people watching to explain, why does this matter to America? It’s not that it isn’t bad. It’s a terrible thing. But why does this matter to Americans? 

“And it matters for two reasons. The first is, if we now live in a world where countries can decide, ‘Hey, that belongs to us, we’re going to go invade it and take it.’ I think the world’s going to get really messy really fast. And that’s going to impact us here. 

“As far as Ukraine specifically is concerned, I think it has a big impact on a lot of things, on global energy prices. We already have very high gas and energy prices. They’re going to go higher. Ukraine is a pretty substantial food producer in wheat and corn. That will have an impact on the global food market, which ultimately would have an impact on us as well.  They actually are the leading supplier of neon gas for our nascent semiconductor industry here in the United States. That’s going to be cut off. So there are some impacts there.”

MARCH EVENTS ARE HERE!

We have two new editorial events for you in March. We are looking forward to bringing you these timely and insightful conversations and hope you’ll join us.

First, we will interview Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) Wednesday, March 16 at 3 p.m. ET in a virtual conversation about the climate and clean energy investments in the Biden agenda and the future of these proposals. Afterward, Siemens U.S. CEO Barbara Humpton will join Anna for a fireside conversation, sponsored by Ceres. RSVP to join us virtually! 

Then, we’re kicking off a two-part editorial series on Investing in America, sponsored by American Investment Council, with an in-person conversation with Sen. Bill Hagerty (R-Tenn.) on Thursday, March 17 at 9 a.m. ET about the role of private capital in investing in small businesses and communities coming out of the pandemic. RSVP to join in-person or virtually!

As always, make sure to register for our events hub to stay up to date on all Punchbowl News events and browse past ones. 

NEWS

Manchin wants Childs for Supreme Court

New: Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) has been privately telling his Senate colleagues that he’d like to see President Joe Biden nominate J. Michelle Childs to the Supreme Court, according to multiple sources.

Manchin has stopped short of endorsing Childs publicly. But Manchin has made it clear to other senators that he thinks Childs, a federal judge in South Carolina, would be a good choice to replace the retiring Justice Stephen Breyer.

Biden has already interviewed Childs, as well as Ketanji Brown Jackson and Leondra Kruger. Jackson serves on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit, the nation’s second highest court, while Kruger sits on the California Supreme Court.

Manchin has specifically mentioned Childs’ public school education as a major plus. Childs went to the University of South Florida and earned a law degree at the University of South Carolina. Manchin has contrasted that with the rest of the Supreme Court, which is filled with Ivy League grads. 

Furthermore, Manchin prefers a candidate who can win bipartisan support. Childs already has the backing of Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) and other Republicans may follow suit if she’s tapped for the highest court in the land. House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.) has been Childs’ biggest booster and has been personally lobbying senators, according to several sources. Clyburn’s office declined to comment.

Biden is set to announce his pick for the Supreme Court by the end of February. White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said Biden would not delay his selection until March due to the escalating war in Ukraine. Whoever Biden selects will make history as the first Black woman nominated for a seat on the Supreme Court.

INSIDE THE GOP

Two items of note for you on the Republican Party.

→ Former President Donald Trump hosted a Take Back Congress Candidate Forum at Mar-a-Lago yesterday. In attendance: Sens. Marsha Blackburn (Tenn.), Ted Cruz (Texas) and Lindsey Graham (S.C.). Rep. Jim Banks (Ind.), Ronny Jackson (Texas) and Mary Miller (Ill.). Candidates in attendance included: Herschel Walker, Morgan Ortagus, Harriett Hageman, Eric Greitens, Mike Carey and Max Miller. 

At this event, Trump again called Russian President Vladimir Putin smart for invading Ukraine. Here’s the video.

“‘Trump said Putin is smart.’ He’s taken over a country for $2 worth of sanctions. I’d say that’s pretty smart. He’s taking over a country, really a vast, vast location, a great piece of land with a lot of people and he’s walking right in.”

→ House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy will be the special guest at a fundraiser for Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler (R-Wash.) May 12. Why is this notable? JHB voted for Trump’s impeachment following the Jan. 6 insurrection.

MOMENTS

9 a.m.: President Joe Biden will participate in a G7 meeting on Russia and Ukraine in the Situation Room. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will attend.

11:15 a.m.: Biden will get his daily intelligence briefing. 

11:30 a.m.: Vice President Kamala Harris will swear in Joe Donnelly to be ambassador to the Vatican. 

11:55 a.m.: Harris will swear in Scott A. Nathan as CEO of the United States International Development Finance Corporation.

2 p.m.: Jen Psaki will brief.

CLIP FILE

NYT

→ “Ukraine’s military is badly outgunned by Russia despite the West’s support,” by Michael Schwirtz

→ “On Eve of War, No Exodus From Ukraine, Only Anxiety and Disbelief,” by Marc Santora on Ukrainian Railways Train 749

→ “Courting G.O.P.’s Mainstream and Extreme, McCarthy Plots Rise to Speaker,” by Annie Karni and Jonathan Weisman

→ “Vulnerable Democrats, Seeking Distance From the Left, Offer a Midterm Agenda,” by Jonathan Weisman

WaPo

→ “Ukraine’s Zelensky to Russians: ‘What are you fighting for and with whom?’” by Paul Sonne

→ “Biden’s economic warning shot on Russia disappoints critics but rattles investors,” by David Lynch

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Editorial photos provided by Getty Images