New: President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris will make a joint campaign appearance next week. They’ll do a Thursday event in Maryland together, the White House announced this morning.
LAS VEGAS — Ever since the Supreme Court’s stunning reversal of Roe v. Wade in 2022, Democrats have told voters that “reproductive rights are on the ballot” and that they should choose accordingly for every single race. It’s a strategy that has yielded success for the party.
But this November, abortion is quite literally on the ballot in some states where vulnerable Senate Democratic incumbents are fighting for their political survival. And Democrats want to use these ballot initiatives to their advantage, to counteract what is a flat-out terrible Senate map for them this year.
“Regardless of whether you’re talking about a ballot initiative or you’re talking about a candidate, when you frame an election around the stakes for reproductive freedom, [voters] turn out — and they vote with us on this issue,” Jessica Mackler, the president of EMILYs List, told us before campaigning here with Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.).
It hasn’t always been easy for either party to rely on a ballot initiative — regardless of the topic — to be a difference-maker in federal elections. But Democrats believe that having an issue like abortion on the ballot will drive up turnout among those inclined to vote for Democrats yet may otherwise feel unmotivated to cast a ballot. It’s far from a sure bet, though, because while abortion rights are popular, that alone doesn’t guarantee a trickle-down effect for Democrats.
The ballot initiative and the Senate race need to “go hand-in-hand” in Nevada, Mackler added.
“If you’re motivated to vote on this issue and you believe that these rights need to be restored at a federal level, then you know that [if] you hand control [of the Senate] to Republicans, they are going to pursue restrictions,” Mackler said.
The goal is to translate the popularity of abortion rights into Democratic wins across the board. This could help determine the outcome in Nevada and other states where the Senate and presidential races will be close.
With Republicans favored to win back the Senate, Democrats’ focus on abortion rights and leveraging the ballot initiatives to juice turnout could ultimately be the difference between a one-seat GOP majority or a three- to four-seat majority. Abortion is also on the ballot in Florida, although that’s a long-shot Senate pickup opportunity for Democrats. Arizona is another battleground that’s likely to have an abortion ballot measure in November.
Rosen vs. Brown: As we wrote earlier this week, Rosen is emphasizing local issues and an affinity for bipartisanship, while at the same time framing abortion rights in the context of which party controls the Senate. The latter could play well in Nevada when grouped in with the abortion ballot measure, but that’s not necessarily the case elsewhere.
The Nevada ballot initiative would enshrine abortion rights in the state’s constitution. While Rosen’s GOP opponent Sam Brown told us he’d break with his party and oppose a national abortion ban, Brown won’t say which way he’ll vote on the ballot initiative. Brown does support the state’s existing 24-week law.
Brown told us this week that Rosen is trying to “scare up votes” through a “dishonest fear campaign.”
“Sen. Rosen is the one who is out of touch with Nevada voters,” Brown added. “She supports federal laws that would supersede Nevada law.”
Rosen and Brown haven’t clashed on any issue more intensely than abortion. Rosen accuses Brown of covering up his past record on abortion from his time living in Texas, where he once ran for office.
“No matter how hard he tries to cover up what he did, he did it, he said it, and he’s only changed since he moved to Nevada,” Rosen told us. “Because these are Texas views. He can go back to Texas. This is not Nevada.”
More from Rosen:
GOP messaging: There’s no doubt that the overturning of Roe has put GOP candidates and incumbents in an uncomfortable spot. Many of them have admitted as much. Top Republicans have sparred internally over how to message the issue, including when Schumer held a number of “show” votes related to abortion rights earlier this summer.
Former President Donald Trump and his allies orchestrated a successful push to prevent the GOP platform from endorsing its stance on abortion — a federal ban — to the chagrin of anti-abortion activists.
Trump has complained about how the Dobbs decision has altered the political landscape for Republicans, even though he paved the way for it with his Supreme Court picks.
On Thursday, Trump refused to say how he’ll vote on a ballot initiative in Florida that would block the state’s six-week abortion ban and allow the procedure for the first 24 weeks of pregnancy. Trump added that abortion has “become much less of an issue.” Obviously, that’s just wishful thinking.
