The Archive

IN THIS EDITION

Johnson’s funding plan is in big trouble

Trump shooting task force obtains autopsy report for gunman

Punchbowl News launches The Future of Defense Aviation special

What to watch on primary day

THE TOP

Johnson’s funding plan is in big trouble

Happy Tuesday morning.

Speaker Mike Johnson’s self-described “righteous” idea to pair a six-month funding bill with the SAVE Act is on the brink of imploding. A number of House Republicans are unpersuaded by the proposal, describing it as irresponsible and ill-advised.

The GOP opposition to the measure ranges from hardline conservatives in the House Freedom Caucus to defense hawks to moderates. Every move Johnson makes to pick up votes in one place loses him votes somewhere else.

House Armed Services Chair Mike Rogers (R-Ala.) said the bill would present big problems for the Pentagon. Rep. Jim Banks (R-Ind.), who is almost certainly going to be a senator come January, says the stopgap proposal spends taxpayer dollars recklessly.

Rep. Cory Mills (R-Fla.) said he will vote against the CR over concerns about spending levels. He joins conservative Reps. Matt Rosendale (R-Mont.), Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.), and Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) in opposing the bill for fiscal reasons.

“How can I continue these continuing resolutions… knowing it’s driving us into economic collapse, and trying to play politics with continuing resolutions for a policy rider that we know that we’re not prepared to actually see the fight all the way through?” Mills said.

Rep. Paul Gosar (R-Ariz.) told us he was on the fence about the CR as it stands, as did fellow conservative hardliner Rep. Eli Crane (R-Ariz.). Crane said he likes the SAVE Act but “hates the CR.” Rep. Eric Burlison (R-Mo.), who has never supported a CR before, said he’s conflicted though leaning toward “yes.”

The House Rules Committee approved a rule covering the six-month spending bill and several China-related measures late Monday night. The House will theoretically take up the rule this afternoon — that is if the leadership doesn’t pull the plug beforehand or delay it to give Johnson more time to work over members.

Johnson has attendance issues, as well. There were 44 lawmakers — 23 Republicans, 21 Democrats — who were absent Monday. Republicans have just a four-seat margin.

Republican moderates are uneasy with the plan. Rep. Mike Garcia (R-Calif.), who represents a district that President Joe Biden won in 2020, said he wants Johnson to outline his plan to ultimately avoid a shutdown before he commits to voting for the CR.

In another less-than-ideal sign for Johnson, some of the Democrats who backed the SAVE Act in July as a stand-alone measure said they weren’t likely to support the CR package even if it includes that provision.

Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Texas), an appropriator and border hawk who voted for the SAVE Act, doesn’t “like long CRs.” Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-Texas) told Fox News “that he would have no problem explaining a no vote to his voters.”

House Democratic leadership is whipping against the CR. The White House also issued a statement saying Biden would veto the measure.

Johnson’s miscalculation. The speaker’s decision to craft this bill as a six-month spending measure coupled with the SAVE Act — which passed the House with unanimous GOP support — was born of two calculations.

Former President Donald Trump has urged Republicans to attach the voting measure to the spending bill. And punting a final spending deal until March of next year was designed to avoid an end-of-year omnibus.

But pairing those two priorities together was probably a bit too much for the House to bear. Moderates were willing to give Johnson a chance but many Republicans are nervous about a possible shutdown this close to an election.

Johnson told us “we’ll find out” if the CR can pass, noting Republicans just began whipping the proposal Monday night. Earlier in the day, Johnson said he had no fallback option, a comment that sent shudders throughout the GOP ranks.

Asked if he still planned to bring the measure to the floor on Wednesday, Johnson said: “We’re working on that. I’m very confident in the principle of what we’re doing and I’m hopeful it’ll get across.”

One senior House Republican said passing the bill “was a heavy lift” and that “only Johnson” can convince defense hawks to back the measure

If Johnson can’t get his own proposal enacted, the most likely scenario becomes the Senate jamming the House with a clean CR that runs until mid to late December.

What’s next? There’s widespread agreement among Senate appropriators that the CR shouldn’t last beyond the end of the year, which further complicates Johnson’s position.

“It’s not going to be a six-month CR,” Senate Appropriations Committee Chair Patty Murray (D-Wash.) told us on Monday. When asked whether she’d talked to her GOP counterpart, Sen. Susan Collins (Maine), ranking Republican on Appropriations, about a three-month CR, Murray responded, “We’re working on it.”

“I would prefer a CR that went through just December,” Collins added. “We’re going to have a new administration regardless, and they should have a clean slate.”

Senate Minority Whip John Thune said the six-month timeline was “problematic” for defense and national security because “we already underfund our military.” But Thune acknowledged there’ll be a “strong contingent of [Republicans] who would like to see all these things pushed into next year.”

Also: The House Freedom Caucus board is aiming to choose a successor for Chair Bob Good (R-Va.) by Friday, with the full group likely to vote on his replacement next Tuesday.

Good, who lost his primary, gave an impassioned speech about his time as chair to members at Monday night’s weekly meeting and received a standing ovation, according to a person familiar.

Former HFC Chair Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.) is seen as the most likely contender to temporarily replace Good in a caretaker role.

– Jake Shermawn, Melanie Zanona, John Bresnahan, Andrew Desiderio and Mica Soellner

Next week: Join us on Thursday, Sept. 19 at 9 a.m. ET for a conversation with Rep. Stephanie Bice (R-Okla.). Punchbowl News founder and CEO Anna Palmer will sit down with Bice as a part of our series, The Future of Defense Aviation. They’ll discuss news of the day, the state of play, legislative landscape and key players central to defense aviation. RSVP here!

NEW! Join Punchbowl News founder Anna Palmer for a conversation with Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) on Wednesday, Oct. 16 at 9 a.m. ET in Charlotte, N.C. They’ll sit down to discuss the news of the day and how private equity drives innovation, supports jobs and strengthens small businesses in North Carolina. RSVP now!

THE INVESTIGATIONS

Trump shooting task force obtains autopsy report for gunman

News: The House’s bipartisan task force on the attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump has obtained a trove of key medical records for the shooter, Thomas Matthew Crooks. The 20-year-old gunman was killed by a Secret Service counter sniper after he shot at Trump from a rooftop 150 yards away. One person was killed and Trump was injured during the July 13 attack.

Rep. Mike Kelly (R-Pa.), who chairs the task force, told us the panel issued a subpoena to the Allegheny County medical examiner in order to get their hands on the autopsy report, which he described as “kind of gruesome.” The panel issued the subpoena as a formality, not because the medical examiner was withholding the record.

A spokesperson for the 13-member task force confirmed that the committee has in fact received all the documents they requested in a Sept. 3 letter to the Allegheny County medical examiner’s office and Butler County coroner’s office.

That letter asked for the autopsy report, along with a list of everyone present for the examination; the coroner’s report and toxicology report, including any related “notes, photographs, and recordings;” and all documents related to the recovery of Crooks’ body from the roof and the release of his body from the coroner’s jurisdiction.

Rep. Clay Higgins (R-La.), a conspiracy-prone member of the task force, complained in a “preliminary report” to the panel last month that he was unable to examine Crooks’ body personally because it was released to his family for cremation 10 days after the shooting.

While obtaining the medical records was an important step in the investigation, Kelly said “I don’t know that it’s revealing in any sort of way, because you’re not going to find out much about his past, or what was his thinking the day he did all that” through those reports. The FBI, which is still investigating the case, has been unable to pinpoint a motive, though officials have testified that Crooks acted alone.

Kelly did say, however, that the FBI told them that Crooks started exhibiting strange behavior in the days leading up to the shooting, such as “walking around the [h]ouse talking to himself” and “flapping his arms,” raising questions about what potential warning signs were missed. “There was some indication that something was wrong,” Kelly said.

Kelly is aiming to have their first public hearing in two weeks, although the Pennsylvania Republican said nothing has been set in stone yet. “We’re milling some things around to see who we can get,” Kelly said. “Of course, we have the ability to subpoena people, too. So it’s going to be a little bit easier.”

— Melanie Zanona

FUTURE OF

Punchbowl News launches The Future of Defense Aviation special

We’re excited to launch our latest editorial project, The Future of Defense Aviation. Over the next four weeks, we’ll dive into the state of the defense aviation sector and what the administration, Congress and the private sector are doing to drive the industry forward.

National security leaders and lawmakers contend the United States must maintain a steady and up-to-date stockpile of air defense equipment to dissuade enemy attacks and reassure allies.

This, however, depends on how fast and reliably Congress can deliver the funds needed to help the defense sector keep up with the latest technology and the growing needs. The slow pace of legislative action and political disagreements have proven to be a source of frustration for the defense sector, which relies on Congress for funding.

The four-part series will:

– Explore the current state of the defense aviation sector and the outlook for its future.

– Break down the key legislative and regulatory approaches shaping the industry as it evolves to meet current and future needs.

– Provide key insights from a leading voice on the issue.

– Highlight the key players driving the industry.

The first segment, live now, provides an overview of the state of the defense aviation industry and the factors shaping it.

— Elvina Nawaguna

PRIMARY DAY

What to watch on primary day

Voters head to the polls in New Hampshire, Delaware and Rhode Island today. Here are the storylines we are watching:

Which Democrat will succeed Kuster?

Retiring Rep. Annie Kuster (D-N.H.) endorsed her former campaign manager and local official Colin Van Ostern to fill her seat in New Hampshire’s 2nd District. But despite Kuster’s backing, Van Ostern is in a tough race against Maggie Goodlander. Goodlander is a former DOJ official, White House aide and impeachment counsel during former President Donald Trump’s first impeachment.

While Van Ostern won the endorsements of local unions and elected officials, Goodlander outraised Van Ostern and pro-Goodlander ads are dominating the airwaves.

“It’s very, very close. I think Colin has the strong grassroots campaign. Obviously Goodlander has that outside spending,” Kuster told us last week on the race. “He’s the one that lives here, has a strong connection to the district and will fight for them.”

Goodlander has only recently begun renting a home in Nashua, N.H. Goodlander grew up in New Hampshire but has worked in D.C. for much of her career. She is married to National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan.

In New Hampshire’s 1st District GOP primary, Republican Russell Prescott is the favorite to advance from a crowded primary to take on Rep. Chris Pappas (D-N.H.) in November.

History on the horizon in Delaware.

In deep-blue Delaware, the Democratic primary is the main show in town. In two major races, Democrats have the chance to make history when nominating their candidate.

In the state’s Senate race, Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-Del.) has already advanced to the general election after no other Democratic candidate surfaced in the primary. If elected, Blunt Rochester will be the first woman or person of color to represent Delaware in the Senate.

In the Delaware at-large House seat, state Sen. Sarah McBride is the heavy favorite to advance to the general and become the first openly transgender member of Congress. While McBride has opponents in the Tuesday primary, she has locked up major endorsements from statewide and national leaders.

— Max Cohen

THE CAMPAIGN

Exclusive: We have a ton of ads, all provided first to Punchbowl News, for you this morning.

Let’s start with this tranche of new spending from House Majority PAC, the top House Democratic super PAC. As we reported last week, the group is continuing to focus heavily on ads linking Republican candidates to anti-abortion rights stances.

Today, HMP is running ads attacking Reps. Juan Ciscomani (R-Ariz.) and Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-Ore.) on abortion, in addition to former Rep. Yvette Herrell (R-N.M.), Gabe Evans and Laurie Buckhout.

HMP is also taking on Rep. David Valadao (R-Calif.) in a series of English and Spanish ads that argue voters are worse off economically since Valadao came to the House.

The DCCC also put out its first ad against Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa.) today, targeting him as “too extreme” for Pennsylvania.

The ad slams Perry on his anti-abortion stance as well as his votes against a bill that would reauthorize federal programs to combat human trafficking and the PACT Act, which expanded health care and benefits to veterans exposed to burn pits.

The ad is the first independent expenditure from the DCCC to run in Pennsylvania’s 10th District in two cycles. It will air in the Harrisburg media market starting today.

Now ads from the candidates directly: Frontline Democratic Rep. Pat Ryan’s (N.Y.) first ad of the cycle touts himself as “a different kind of Democrat” who demanded President Joe Biden “secure the border.” The spot also highlights Ryan’s military background and throws in some moments of levity by featuring his fatherly duties. Ryan is running against Republican Alison Esposito in New York’s 19th District.

Rep. Young Kim (R-Calif.) is running her first general election ad as part of a seven-figure buy, which touts her crossover appeal in Congress.

Democrat Janelle Bynum’s latest ad in her race against Chavez-DeRemer hits the incumbent by tying the Republican to former President Donald Trump’s opposition to the bipartisan border bill.

— Max Cohen and Mica Soellner

MOMENTS

CLIPS