The Archive

DEPARTMENT OF LEGISLATING

How SCOTUS will impact the midterms

Since Politico published a leaked draft decision indicating that Roe v. Wade would be overturned, Congress has been trying to wrap its arms around what would be a huge new political reality – abortion may be severely restricted or even banned outright in many states.

The House has passed legislation that seeks to codify Roe v. Wade into law, but a similar measure failed in the Senate. Unsurprisingly, 92% of senior Capitol Hill aides say it’s unlikely Congress will pass legislation granting federal protection to abortion rights. Just 9% of Democrats say abortion legislation is likely to pass Congress.

The political implications of the pending Roe decision are less clear, according to our reporting. Some Democratic aides believe it will help them galvanize their voters in a midterm election in which the party faces dim prospects. Republicans counter by saying that the majority of Americans will be focused on inflation and supply chain kinks when they head to the ballot box this November.

In our survey, Congressional aides say they believe that the draft opinion will help Democrats and hurt Republicans. This view is shared across the political spectrum, as you see below.

Another issue that has dogged Congress and the Biden administration is the ongoing migrant crisis at the U.S.-Mexico border. The Biden administration has lifted Title 42, a pandemic-era public health policy that allows the government to quickly deport asylum seekers during the Covid-19 pandemic. A federal judge blocked the administration from lifting the policy.

The Biden administration’s efforts to pass Covid preparatory funding has been bogged down by this policy dispute. Republicans have demanded a vote on extending Title 42 as part of a Covid package, and Democrats are worried they wouldn’t be able to defeat it.

Senior Capitol Hill aides told us that Biden’s decision to lift the policy will worsen the situation at the border. A plurality of Democrats, as you can see below, say it won’t alter the situation at the border or don’t know what the impact will be.

Interestingly enough, the majority of Democrats told us that they believe the Biden administration’s decision to lift Title 42 will harm Democrats in the midterm elections.

Today is the first day of June, and in a typical election year, legislating would be slowing down. But this year, Congress is wrestling with everything from Covid relief to gun legislation to USICA, the massive bill aimed at blunting the technological advantage of China. Senior Hill aides told us they believe more Ukraine aid, USICA and a bill dealing with Russia are likely this year. Again, most notably, the two least likely bills to pass this Congress: abortion and immigration.

– Jake Sherman

INFLATION NATION

It’s the economy.

We spend a lot of time reporting and writing on inflation and how lawmakers on Capitol Hill believe the Biden administration and the Federal Reserve should be tackling it. In short, there have been no good answers from the Hill or the White House to the crisis so far. The Fed is raising interest rates, but that could cause a recession, lawmakers tell us.

– Jake Sherman

AND TWO MORE …

– Jake Sherman