The Archive
Every issue of the Punchbowl News newsletter, including our special editions, right here at your fingertips.
Join the community, and get the morning edition delivered straight to your inbox.
October 7, 2024
Presented by Wells Fargo
At Wells Fargo, we cover more rural markets than many large banks, and nearly 30% of our branches are in low- or moderate-income census tracts. What we say, we do. See how.
PRESENTED BY
THE TOP
How Oct. 7 changed Washington forever
Happy Monday morning. There are 29 days until Election Day.
It has been one year since Hamas’ Oct. 7 terror attack on Israel.
That brutal terrorist rampage left more than 1,200 Israelis dead and hundreds more held hostage. More than 40 Americans were killed, and four still remain as hostages.
The ensuing Israeli military campaigns to destroy Hamas in Gaza and now Hezbollah in Lebanon have led to tens of thousands of Palestinian deaths and hundreds of thousands of refugees.
Even more worrying, Israel and Iran — which has launched two direct attacks on the Jewish State — may be on the verge of a broader war that could pull in the United States and other powers.
The aftershocks of Oct. 7 have seeped far deeper into the fabric of American society than anyone could’ve possibly predicted. The FBI and Department of Homeland Security are warning of possible terror attacks today, while some schools are preparing for pro-Palestinian student walkouts. Protestors have camped out at the end of Rep. Greg Landsman’s (D-Ohio) driveway.
It’s also changed the nature of U.S. support for Israel, a fact that’s crystal clear to high-ranking members of the Israeli government and intelligentsia based on our recent trips to Jerusalem and Tel Aviv.
Republicans have become even more closely aligned with Israel and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, if possible. GOP lawmakers have flocked to Jerusalem while Netanyahu in turn used them to pressure President Joe Biden and other top administration officials.
The war in Gaza also helped set off an ugly wave of antisemitism at U.S. colleges and the resignations of Ivy League presidents; led to the most expensive House primary ever; sparked bitter fights inside the House Democratic Caucus and the Senate Foreign Relations Committee; and left the highest-ranking Jewish pol in American history, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, openly feuding with Netanyahu.
The Democratic Party’s existing divisions over Israel only got worse during the war. Large contingents of Hill Democrats have sought unsuccessfully to use Congress’ power to try to block or otherwise place conditions on U.S. weapons sales to Israel. This would’ve been unheard of pre-Oct. 7.
In fact, the United States has found itself on both sides of the Gaza conflict. It’s spent tens of billions of dollars to boost Israel while simultaneously supplying billions in humanitarian aid to Palestinians.
The White House openly disdains Netanyahu — and he gives it right back. Check out this excerpt from Vice President Kamala Harris’ “60 Minutes” interview with Bill Whitaker scheduled to air tonight:
We’ll note that in the immediate aftermath of Oct. 7, Biden traveled to Israel and pledged total U.S. support. He even hugged Netanyahu.
Yet not even a month later, the then newly installed Speaker Mike Johnson tried several times to pass a $14 billion Israel aid bill along party lines. The Senate and White House rejected the move, and Israel had to wait until the spring to get more aid.
By early 2024, following months of deadly Israeli attacks inside Gaza and growing White House frustration with Netanyahu, Hill Democrats and top Biden administration officials were courting Israeli opposition leader Benny Gantz as a potential Netanyahu successor.
The assault on Rafah in southern Gaza this spring may have been the low point for U.S.-Israel relations. Biden withheld some American-made weapons, fearful that an Israeli assault on Rafah would lead to another massive wave of civilian casualties. And he made sure everyone knew this. Netanyahu and Republicans pointed to the move as a signal that Biden was about to abandon Israel, which led to a furious pushback from the White House.
Since that time, Netanyahu has ignored Biden’s repeated efforts to force a Gaza ceasefire. Now with war spreading to southern Lebanon and Iran launching missile barrages at Israel, all of that has moved to the background.
So what’s next? The wild card at the moment is how Israel responds to the Iranian provocation, and how Iran counters that in turn. There are also huge questions over how long the Israeli campaign against Hezbollah lasts. The White House has shifted its messaging since the Iranian attack. Gen. Michael Kurilla, the commander of U.S. Central Command, has been in Israel over the past few days helping coordinate any Israeli attack on Iran.
Netanyahu and Israel, though, have an enormous amount at stake on Election Day. If Harris wins, U.S. support will continue, but possibly with conditions that Netanyahu won’t like. If former President Donald Trump wins, Netanyahu will likely be allowed to do whatever he wants. Trump will just want credit for any Israeli victory and he’ll want it over fast.
Where they are: Schumer will attend an Oct. 7 commemoration ceremony in New York this evening, in addition to visiting his synagogue. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries will also attend commemoration events. Johnson will be in Las Vegas at a Republican Jewish Coalition event. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell issued this statement.
— John Bresnahan, Jake Sherman and Andrew Desiderio
Want to make sure your whole office has the full Punchbowl News experience? We have team plans available for companies, organizations, classes, Capitol Hill offices and more. Fill out this form and find out if your team is eligible for a discount.
BATTLE FOR THE SENATE
Dems try to define Senate GOP recruits’ business records
Senate Republicans recruited a number of wealthy entrepreneurs as their candidates in key swing states this fall. While the GOP strategy hailed their candidates as successful businessmen who could self-fund campaigns, Democrats have repeatedly seized on their histories in the private sector to attack them.
In Ohio, Montana, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, GOP Senate candidates are wealthy political outsiders who’ve never held public office before. In Michigan, the Republican candidate is a former House member who found success in the private sector after leaving Congress. Here’s a look at the coordinated Democratic strategy to bash their Republican opponents over their business records.
Pennsylvania: “Wall Street CEO” Dave McCormick
During last week’s debate, Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) slammed Republican Dave McCormick for his hedge fund’s investments in China. Casey’s campaign and the DSCC have hit McCormick all cycle for his time helming Bridgewater.
The Democratic ads constantly refer to McCormick as a “Wall Street CEO” — similar to the attack that former President Donald Trump aimed at McCormick during the 2022 Senate GOP primary. Of course, Trump is all in behind McCormick this time around.
Montana: “Multimillionaire outsider” Tim Sheehy
A consistent theme of Sen. Jon Tester’s (D-Mont.) reelection fight against Republican Tim Sheehy is his argument that Sheehy is a wealthy out-of-stater who is driving up Montana home prices. Tester’s ads have called Sheehy “shady” and contrasted the Republican with Tester’s longtime Montana ties.
Tester has also criticized Sheehy for his lobbying efforts to benefit Bridger Aerospace, the firefighting company Sheehy founded. Media reports have shown the firefighting company is struggling.
Ohio: “Fat Cat” Bernie Moreno
Ohio Democrats launched a tour with an inflatable “fat cat” to paint Bernie Moreno, Sen. Sherrod Brown’s (D-Ohio) GOP opponent, as a greedy boss. Brown is running ads portraying Moreno, who owns multiple car dealerships, as a slick salesman who can’t be trusted.
One ad from Brown’s team slams Moreno for a lawsuit alleging Moreno’s dealership didn’t pay appropriate overtime to its employees. Moreno contested the allegation but was ordered by a judge to pay $416,000.
Wisconsin: “Multimillionaire California banker” Eric Hovde
Republican Eric Hovde, who’s challenging Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.), grew up in Wisconsin before moving to Orange County, Calif. Democrats have hammered Hovde as out-of-touch all cycle and pointed to reports that the bank Hovde owns may have ties to Mexican cartels.
In Michigan, Democrats have also slammed former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.) over his post-Congress career. One ad, which highlights a multi-million dollar mansion Rogers bought in Florida after leaving the House, claims Rogers is bought by special interests.
The GOP pushback: McCormick and Hovde have run ads cementing their home state bona fides, with McCormick touting his Pennsylvania wrestling career and Hovde taking viewers on a tour of his Wisconsin roots. In a recent debate, Sheehy parried Tester’s criticism that he’s an out-of-stater by pointing out he “couldn’t control where my mother’s womb was when I crawled out of it.”
In Ohio, an NRSC/Moreno ad hits Brown for failing to combat inflation. In Wisconsin, an NRSC/Hovde spot features a sheriff criticizing Baldwin for her stance on the border.
And hybrid NRSC ads in Pennsylvania and Montana tie Casey and Tester to “radical” Vice President Kamala Harris.
“We’re talking about how Democrats have destroyed the economy, opened the border and unleashed chaos around the globe,” NRSC Communications Director Mike Berg said in a statement. “Like the socialists they are, the Democrats are attacking our candidates for their success in the private sector.”
— Max Cohen
THE CANVASS
Senior Hill staffers predict Harris win in November
Nearly three-quarters of senior Capitol Hill staffers (72%) say Vice President Kamala Harris will win the 2024 election, helped partly by swing voters, according to our latest survey results.
Just 28% of respondents to The Canvass think GOP candidate Donald Trump will win the presidential election. Broken down by party, 54% of Republican staffers said the former president would win.
The latest Canvass results showing Harris in the lead align with the most recent general polling that shows her narrowly leading Trump ahead of the November election.
Swing states: The path to the White House runs through several states that could go either way. However, a majority of Capitol Hill staffers think Harris will win in Wisconsin (85%), Nevada (77%) and Michigan (81%) but are split on who will take Arizona and Georgia.
Nearly two-thirds (61%) of top Hill staffers think Harris will win Pennsylvania while one-third say Trump will take the Keystone State.
Pennsylvania has swung both ways in the last two presidential elections. The state solidified President Joe Biden’s 2020 victory and voted for Trump in 2016.
Respondents were split on who will win in Arizona, with 50% of staffers thinking it will be Harris and 46% saying it will go to Trump.
Georgia is the one swing state that most senior Hill staffers (57%) think Trump would win over Harris.
Momentum: Most (77%) of the respondents say the Democratic Party has more momentum than the GOP as Election Day draws nearer. Interestingly, 55% of Republican senior staffers who responded to the survey agreed.
Harris and VP nominee Tim Walz have energized the Democratic base since Biden stepped down and endorsed Harris’ candidacy in late July.
Nearly all (96%) senior staffers think the Harris-Walz presidential ticket will help Democrats in other races.
The Harris-Walz campaign has given nearly $25 million to support the Democrats down ballot, breaking the record for the largest fund transfer ever.
Republican senior staffers thought quite the opposite about their party’s ticket. Almost half of GOP respondents (46%) think Trump and VP nominee Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) will harm Republicans down the ballot.
The Canvass Capitol Hill was conducted from Sept. 9-27 in partnership with independent public affairs firm, LSG.
Our survey provides anonymous monthly insights from top Capitol Hill staffers and K Street leaders on key issues Washington is dealing with. Sign up here if you work on K Street. Click here to sign up if you’re a senior congressional staffer.
– Samantha Bell
PRESENTED BY CONSTELLATION
Constellation produces 50% more emission-free energy than any other company in America.
HOUSE GOP
Cammack’s campaign push
Rep. Kat Cammack (R-Fla.) is planning a major swing throughout the country to stump for House Republican candidates in the final weeks of the campaign season.
Cammack, who’s currently the vice chair of recruitment for the NRCC, is also seen as a contender to lead the House GOP campaign arm next year.
In the upcoming weeks, Cammack is visiting the districts of some of the most vulnerable Republican incumbents. The Florida Republican will be in Montana’s 1st District to boost Rep. Ryan Zinke, in Nebraska’s 2nd District for Rep. Don Bacon’s reelection and will help Rep. Jen Kiggans in Virginia’s 2nd District.
Cammack is also going to Iowa’s 1st District to support Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Iowa), along with Rep. Celeste Maloy (R-Utah) in the 2nd District.
Cammack is slated to fundraise for Russell Prescott in Boston, the Republican challenger to Rep. Chris Pappas (D-N.H.) in New Hampshire’s 1st District. Cammack’s heading to Chicago to fundraise for Randy Niemeyer, who’s running to knock off Rep. Frank Mrvan (D-Ind.) in Indiana’s 1st District.
In her home state, Cammack is appearing with Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.) and speaking to the Union County Republican Executive Committee and the Hernando County GOP.
Cammack just wrapped up a swing through New York to boost Reps. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) and Marc Molinaro (R-N.Y.), along with Alison Esposito — the GOP candidate running against Rep. Pat Ryan (D-N.Y.) in the state’s 18th District.
— Max Cohen
THE CAMPAIGN
Senate Minority Whip John Thune was in Michigan this weekend to campaign and fundraise for Republican Senate candidate Mike Rogers. Here are some pictures of the pair stopping by a diner to chat with voters. Thune, of course, is running to lead the Senate GOP.
Frontline Rep. Eric Sorensen (D-Ill.) raised over $1 million in Q3 and has $1.7 million-plus in cash on hand.
Rebecca Cooke, the Democrat running against Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Wis.) in the 3rd District, raised nearly $2.8 million in the third quarter.
– Max Cohen
PRESENTED BY CONSTELLATION
Constellation: the #1 producer of clean, emission-free electricity.
Crucial Capitol Hill news AM, Midday, and PM—5 times a week
Join a community of some of the most powerful people in Washington and beyond. Exclusive newsmaker events, parties, in-person and virtual briefings and more.
Subscribe to Premium
The Canvass Year-End Report
And what senior aides and downtown figures believe will happen in 2023.
Check it outEvery single issue of Punchbowl News published, all in one place
Visit the archive
Presented by Wells Fargo
Wells Fargo has donated ~$2 billion over the last five years to help build a sustainable, inclusive future for all by supporting housing affordability, small business growth, financial health, and other community needs. What we say, we do. See how.