The Archive

IN THIS EDITION

McCormick looks beyond Trump base as PA race tightens

Vulnerable New York Republicans hug Trump while racist MSG rally stirs outrage

Most on K Street predict results will come within a week after Election Day

Inside Davids’ campaign schedule as she seeks New Dem top slot

THE TOP

McCormick looks beyond Trump base as PA race tightens

Happy Monday morning. There are eight days until Election Day.

SCRANTON, Pa. — For the next week, the eyes of the world are on Pennsylvania. Its voters have an enormous amount of power this year.

In all likelihood, they’ll determine who wins the presidency. And if that weren’t enough, the outcome of the Senate race here could very well be the difference between an underperformance or a big night for Senate Republicans.

No pressure, Dave McCormick!

McCormick, the Republican challenging Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.), has always had a difficult path to victory. Casey is an entrenched, largely non-controversial incumbent with near-universal name ID in the Keystone State. And McCormick, like other battleground GOP challengers, has consistently polled behind former President Donald Trump.

But the race has tightened, and McCormick knows he can’t just rely on Trump to propel him to victory.

“President Trump helps me because he helps turn out the vote, and I’m very much in favor of his policy agenda, for the most part. But I’ve got to run my own campaign,” McCormick told us in an interview after addressing campaign volunteers. “I also have to be able to appeal to voters in the suburbs, in cities. I’ve got to be able to build a coalition that gets me to 50 plus one.”

Call it the anti-Kari Lake strategy. When we interviewed the Arizona GOP Senate candidate in Phoenix in August, Lake made clear that she had no interest in backing away from her MAGA label to attract a broader coalition necessary to win in a presidential battleground.

That’s at least partly why Senate Republicans are much less optimistic about Arizona than the Rust Belt states where their candidates have gained traction down the stretch. McCormick knows he has to hug Trump, but that can’t be everything the former hedge fund executive does.

“You have to appeal to a broader group of people to win in Pennsylvania,” McCormick said. “While I’m obviously a Republican and a conservative, I’m running to represent all of Pennsylvania.”

McCormick is attempting to close the gap in the final days by portraying himself as an “independent guy” and a “problem solver,” drawing in part on his business experience.

Much of that strategy involves appealing to Trump-skeptical Republicans and independents who are open to voting for other GOP candidates on the ballot. An example would be former Sen. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.), a business-minded conservative who backs McCormick but won’t vote for Trump.

Donald Trump Jr. headlined a rally for McCormick in the Scranton area on Saturday. Also in attendance? Sen. Todd Young (R-Ind.), another anti-Trump Republican.

Casey would be a “sure vote” for Vice President Kamala Harris’ agenda, McCormick argues, hoping this would help him appeal to disaffected Republicans.

“Those radical San Francisco liberal policies don’t fly in Pennsylvania and at a time when Pennsylvania’s becoming more and more red,” McCormick said.

Casey responds: Casey says McCormick’s appeals to voters outside Trump’s base — particularly independents and suburban voters — shouldn’t be taken seriously.

Speaking at a carpenters’ union hall in Philadelphia on Saturday, Casey highlighted McCormick’s opposition to the 2022 bipartisan infrastructure law, which Casey has pointed to as he touts his efforts to bring federal investments and jobs back home. We spoke with Casey afterward.

“My record [is] delivering for the state like never before in terms of a senator being able to bring back the kinds of dollars I’ve brought back… compared to his record as a hedge fund CEO, not investing in Pennsylvania,” Casey told us.

If McCormick is elected, he’d be “part of a MAGA majority that would do pretty much whatever the former president wants him to do,” Casey said, citing the GOP challenger’s opposition to the bipartisan border security deal. Casey said his opponent doesn’t have the “guts” to stand up to Trump.

‘A safe majority’: While Republicans are expected to flip the Senate, a razor-thin majority would be considered a disappointment by many, even if they won’t say it out loud.

Republicans have a highly favorable map this year. West Virginia is virtually guaranteed to flip to the GOP with the retirement of Sen. Joe Manchin (I-W.Va.), and the party is in a solid position to knock off red-state Sens. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) and Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio).

Senate Republicans expanded the map in part by touting candidate recruitment in purple states, an effort intended to shed the party’s penchant for nominating lackluster general election candidates.

So while flipping just one additional seat gets them the majority, they have a unique opportunity to build what McCormick called a “safe” majority that could outlast the 119th Congress.

“I’m not sure if the [Senate] majority will be decided here… but certainly a safe majority,” McCormick said. “Pennsylvania punches above its weight.”

We’ll have more from Pennsylvania in the Midday edition and tomorrow morning.

— Andrew Desiderio

Want to make sure your whole office has the full Punchbowl News experience? We have team plans available for companies, organizations, classes, Capitol Hill offices and more. Fill out this form and find out if your team is eligible for a discount.

ELECTION 2024

Vulnerable New York Republicans hug Trump while racist MSG rally stirs outrage

NEW YORK — Vulnerable New York Republicans are going all in on former President Donald Trump in the final sprint before the election.

On Saturday, Trump and House GOP Conference Chair Elise Stefanik held a tele-rally for Empire State Republicans in battleground seats. Trump made a pitch for freshman Reps. Mike Lawler, Nick LaLota, Marc Molinaro, Anthony D’Esposito and Brandon Williams. Trump also plugged GOP candidates Alison Esposito and Mike LiPetri, according to sources on the call.

And Sunday night, the entire House GOP leadership team attended Trump’s high-profile rally at Madison Square Garden, as we scooped last week. Stefanik and Speaker Mike Johnson both had speaking slots at the packed event. A ton of rank-and-file members, including Lawler and D’Esposito, were also in attendance. D’Esposito was even part of the motorcade.

“We’re about to grow that majority. And New York is going to make that happen,” Johnson said on stage. “You’re going to elect our incumbents here and our challengers.”

The calculation: It’s unusual for Trump to be campaigning in such a deep blue part of the country a week before the election. While Trump, a native New Yorker, insists he can win the state, let’s be clear — that won’t happen.

Yet New York has become the epicenter for the battle for the House. And Trump’s stump speech — well, at least the non-meandering parts — touches on issues that resonate in New York, such as immigration and crime.

Republicans are also betting Sunday’s rally will garner national attention while raising a boatload of money. And if Trump can improve his performance in some of these key districts that President Joe Biden carried in 2020, that’s good news for New York Republicans fighting for survival in blue seats.

The risk: Still, it’s a risky strategy to hug Trump so tightly. New York Republicans in tough races have spent their first terms in office trying to carefully cultivate a bipartisan brand outside of the GOP.

Meanwhile, Democrats have hit these vulnerable Republicans over their ties to Trump, arguing they’ll be rubber stamps for the MAGA agenda.

And Sunday night’s hugely controversial rally at MSG showed the ugly side of Trump’s base.

Comedian Tony Hinchcliffe made a bunch of racist jokes, while other speakers used crude and sexist rhetoric to refer to Trump’s political adversaries, including Vice President Kamala Harris.

Hinchcliffe said he “carved watermelons” with a Black audience member, called Puerto Rico a “floating island of garbage” and made extremely vulgar comments about Latinos “making babies.”

Several Republicans from Florida, which is home to a large Puerto Rican population, condemned the remarks. And so did D’Esposito, whose mother was born and raised in Puerto Rico.

Trump’s camp also put out a rare statement distancing the campaign from the remarks. “This joke does not reflect the views of President Trump or the campaign,” said Danielle Alvarez, a senior adviser.

Trump’s speech, which ran for more than an hour, was more-or-less the same one he’s been delivering on the trail. But it did catch our attention that Trump declined an opportunity to name-check the lawmakers — including New York Republicans — in attendance. “That’s a lot of introducing, right?” Trump said. “Let’s keep going.”

However, Trump did offer some effusive praise for Johnson, predicting “he’s going to be around for a long time.”

We’ll have much more on these key New York House races while we’re on the ground here all week.

Stefanik news: We have some news about the looming House Republican leadership races. Stefanik has been telling insiders she plans to run for GOP conference chair again, according to multiple sources, even as speculation mounts that she’ll join the Trump White House if he wins.

Of course, Stefanik could easily step down from her leadership post if she gets confirmed to a potential Trump administration job. We’re told she’s got her eyes on the United Nations ambassadorship. But that process will take some time to play out, whereas the leadership elections will likely occur in November.

— Melanie Zanona

Most on K Street predict results will come within a week after Election Day

Most K Street leaders think the outcome of the 2024 presidential election will be determined within one week of Election Day, according to our latest survey results. But don’t bank on getting a result before you go to bed next Tuesday. Only 10% of senior lobbyists think America will know who its next president is on election night according to The Canvass.

Some K Street leaders think it might take even longer, with 28% predicting it’ll be more than a week before we know if former President Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris will be moving to the White House come January. The Canvass K Street was conducted Oct. 3-18 in partnership with independent public affairs firm, LSG.

In 2020, it took four days for most outlets to call the election for President Joe Biden. That year the election happened in the middle of a pandemic, and a record number of ballots were cast by mail and required extra days to count.

Very few Democrats — only 5% — on K Street think there will be a final result on election night. Republican lobbyists are a little more optimistic about getting a quick result; 13% said they think we’ll know on Election Day who won.

In a recent interview with NPR, David Scott, editor of the Associated Press Decision Desk — which most media outlets rely on for the final call — said he advises people to “prepare for everything.”

“It could be a race that’s decided on election night. It could be one that takes several days,” Scott said. “And so we’re just going to have to wait to see what the voters do and what the voters decide.”

Want to take part in The Canvass? Our anonymous monthly survey provides insights from top Capitol Hill staffers and K Street leaders on key issues Washington is dealing with. Sign up here if you work on K Street. Click here to sign up if you’re a senior congressional staffer.

— Robert O’Shaughnessy

NEW DEMS

Inside Davids’ campaign schedule as she seeks New Dem top slot

While running her reelection campaign, Frontline Rep. Sharice Davids (D-Kan.) is also seeking to be the next chair of the New Democrat Coalition. It’s a delicate balance to pull off, but Davids has been active in fundraising and campaigning to flip the House for Democrats.

We got an inside look at Davids’ campaign activity. Check it out:

— Davids has traversed the country to campaign for Democratic House candidates. This is especially important for the upcoming leadership election as newly elected New Dem members can vote for the next chair.

Davids has stumped for Eugene Vindman, who’s running to succeed outgoing Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.), at the Virginia State Fair. She’s campaigned alongside Rebecca Cooke, who’s challenging Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Wis.), at the Ho-Chunk Nation Powwow.

Davids rallied with John Mannion in his race against Rep. Brandon Williams (R-N.Y.) and visited the Oneida Nation. In Pennsylvania, Davids fundraised with Janelle Stelson and Ashley Ehasz, who are challenging Reps. Scott Perry (R-Pa.) and Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) respectively.

This weekend, Davids campaigned for Tony Vargas in his race versus Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) and knocked on doors with Lanon Baccam in his challenge against Rep. Zach Nunn (R-Iowa).

— Davids has given or raised $504,000 for fellow New Dem Frontliners and New Dem-endorsed challengers.

— The Kansas Democrat has raised $1.26 million for the DCCC this cycle.

— A number of Davids’ staff members are helping out in key races in California, Pennsylvania and New York.

Davids is running against Rep. Brad Schneider (D-Ill.) to succeed Rep. Annie Kuster (D-N.H.) as head of the center-left caucus. As a Frontliner herself, Davids faces a reelection challenge from Republican Prasanth Reddy in her 3rd District seat. Davids is the heavy favorite to win and Cook Political Report with Amy Walter rates the race “likely Democratic.”

The Kansas Democrat first won election to the House in 2018 and currently serves as the New Dem vice chair for member services.

— Max Cohen

THE CAMPAIGN

News: We got a first look at three new ads that former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D-Fla.) is running in her challenge to Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.). One ad calls Scott extreme on abortion, while two others focus on Scott’s connection to insurance companies and accuse him of playing a role in Medicare fraud.

Former President Donald Trump’s campaign is up with two long ads in Ohio and North Carolina. The Ohio spot is a rare two-minute ad that contrasts what the campaign sees as Trump’s successes with President Joe Biden’s tenure. The North Carolina ad, a 60-second spot, seeks to tie Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris together.

— Max Cohen and Jake Sherman

MOMENTS

CLIPS