Most K Street leaders think the outcome of the 2024 presidential election will be determined within one week of Election Day, according to our latest survey results. But don’t bank on getting a result before you go to bed next Tuesday. Only 10% of senior lobbyists think America will know who its next president is on election night according to The Canvass.
Some K Street leaders think it might take even longer, with 28% predicting it’ll be more than a week before we know if former President Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris will be moving to the White House come January. The Canvass K Street was conducted Oct. 3-18 in partnership with independent public affairs firm, LSG.
In 2020, it took four days for most outlets to call the election for President Joe Biden. That year the election happened in the middle of a pandemic, and a record number of ballots were cast by mail and required extra days to count.
Very few Democrats — only 5% — on K Street think there will be a final result on election night. Republican lobbyists are a little more optimistic about getting a quick result; 13% said they think we’ll know on Election Day who won.
In a recent interview with NPR, David Scott, editor of the Associated Press Decision Desk — which most media outlets rely on for the final call — said he advises people to “prepare for everything.”
“It could be a race that’s decided on election night. It could be one that takes several days,” Scott said. “And so we’re just going to have to wait to see what the voters do and what the voters decide.”
Want to take part in The Canvass? Our anonymous monthly survey provides insights from top Capitol Hill staffers and K Street leaders on key issues Washington is dealing with. Sign up here if you work on K Street. Click here to sign up if you’re a senior congressional staffer.
