In politics — like sports — winning is everything.
The House Republican leadership, the subject of so much disdain over the last two years, will be reelected today without any meaningful opposition after the party bucked the odds and held onto its razor-thin majority. And the House Republican Conference is set to reject a raft of proposed revisions to their internal rules.
The House Freedom Caucus, which has agitated against every speaker for the last decade, couldn’t even muster up a sacrificial candidate to run against Speaker Mike Johnson. Instead, they will block Johnson from being elected by voice vote. This isn’t much of a defeat for the Louisiana Republican.
This doesn’t mean that Johnson won’t struggle on the House floor come January when the new Congress begins and the entire House will need to vote on a rules package to govern how the chamber operates.
The House Freedom Caucus, which huddled Tuesday night to talk about their strategy, is still actively weighing how to use their leverage. One of the things that’s been discussed is lobbying Johnson to add an HFC member to the powerful House Ways and Means Committee, according to a source familiar with the matter. Given the stakes of tax reform, this would be a tremendous risk for Johnson — especially since the HFC has completely upended the Rules Committee.
They’re also insisting that the motion to vacate remain intact as it’s currently structured. The HFC tried to oust Johnson last year following a Ukraine aid vote only to see Democrats come to his rescue.
But Johnson is betting that support from President-elect Donald Trump, who’s visiting the conference today, will help him stay in the speakership without much sweat.
What else to expect: Rep. John James (R-Mich.), a rising GOP star from a battleground district, will give Johnson’s nominating speech, we’re told. House Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) and Rep. Andrew Garbarino (R-N.Y.) will give seconding speeches.
The only competitive contest in the upper ranks of leadership is the two-way race between Reps. Lisa McClain (R-Mich.) and Kat Cammack (R-Fla.) for House GOP conference chair. McClain is the favorite.
Up next: After the leadership is elected today, the House Republican Conference will consider a number of changes to the party’s rules, most of which will likely be defeated. The rule changes come largely from hardline conservatives, who want to codify unwritten rules like every bill considered on the floor needs support from the “majority of the majority” party. The proposed changes also seek to cut away at the power of the leadership.
But there are a number of amendments that would punish dissenters. For example, New York Rep. Nick LaLota has an amendment that would strip committee assignments from lawmakers who vote against procedural motions. Rep. Derrick Van Orden of Wisconsin has an amendment that would strip committee assignments from any lawmaker who is involved with overthrowing a GOP speaker. Rep. Bill Huizenga of Michigan, who is seeking the House Financial Services Committee gavel, has his own proposal to punish lawmakers who vote against the GOP speaker nominee on the floor.
In effect, hardline conservatives are targeting the middle of the conference. And the middle of the conference is targeting the hardliners right back. This all but guarantees no significant change in the party’s rules. Still, conservatives want a commitment from Johnson that he’ll oppose any efforts to punish dissenters.
Steering drama: Johnson’s leadership has released a new map with the new steering regions. Remember, the steering committee is one of the power centers of the House Republican Conference. It selects committee chairs and assignments.
The map lumped in two current steering members in region six — House Armed Service Chair Mike Rogers (R-Ala.) and Rep. Barry Loudermilk (R-Ga.). This will cause big drama over the next few days.
