President-elect Donald Trump’s Cabinet confirmation prospects run the gamut — from slam dunks like Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) as secretary of state, to very steep uphill climbs like former Rep. Matt Gaetz’s (R-Fla.) bid to serve as attorney general.
Others lie somewhere in the middle and are controversial for very different reasons. Take Pete Hegseth’s nomination to run the Pentagon, or the choice of former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-Hawaii) to head up the sprawling U.S. intelligence apparatus.
The Trump transition team is ramping up its engagement with the Senate to prepare for the confirmation processes. Here’s where things stand.
Gaetz: It’s no secret what Senate Republicans think of Gaetz. At this point, GOP senators are hoping Gaetz’s nomination doesn’t even advance far enough that they have to vote on it. There’s a significant number of Republicans who would vote no. This is even before the controversy over the House Ethics Committee’s investigation into Gaetz.
In the meantime, Senate Republicans want to show Trump and his team that they’re going through the normal vetting process and not prejudging the nominee.
The lobbying campaign is already underway, with Trump himself calling senators and Vice President-elect JD Vance getting directly involved with his soon-to-be former colleagues. Vance is on the Hill this week helping set up meetings for Gaetz with GOP senators, starting with Judiciary Committee members.
Senate Republicans are cautiously optimistic they can kill the nomination. Several GOP senators have already said the Judiciary Committee should get access to the House Ethics Committee’s report on Gaetz’s alleged sexual misconduct and other questionable behavior. This would give Republicans additional opportunities to argue that Gaetz is unconfirmable.
Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.), a reliable Trump ally, supports Gaetz’s confirmation and told us he’s spoken with the former House member a few times since the nomination was announced.
According to Tuberville, Gaetz suggested that no additional damaging information will surface that’s not already public. Of course, what’s already out there is troubling enough for many Republicans. Tuberville also said he urged Gaetz to be transparent.
Here’s Tuberville:
Some GOP senators also believe there would probably be enough Republicans willing to take the heat for tanking Gaetz’s nomination and give cover to the others — and take the pressure off of incoming Majority Leader John Thune. It only takes four GOP defections to sink any nominee, assuming all Democrats are opposed. And they would be in this case.
Gabbard: The former Democrat has some controversial views on foreign policy and national security, to put it lightly. Ideologically, Gabbard couldn’t be further from Senate Republicans writ-large.
But our discussions with senators and aides suggest that most Senate Republicans are prepared to put those concerns aside for Gabbard, noting her role would be in the intelligence realm rather than big foreign policy decisions.
That’s not to say Gabbard won’t attract opposition — maybe, for example, from Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, a noted defense hawk. But Gabbard’s confirmation prospects could depend on what comes out during her Senate Intelligence Committee hearing, including concerns that she’s parroted talking points of hostile foreign governments including Russia in the past.
Interestingly, we’re told there’s been no outreach yet from the Trump team to the Intelligence Committee.
Hegseth: So far, Republicans are generally enthused about the idea of the Fox News host heading up the Pentagon. Hegseth’s sherpa is John Wason, a former Senate Armed Services Committee staff director.
Hegseth probably won’t get Democratic support, so he’ll need to limit GOP defections. Recent stories about sexual assault allegations against Hegseth are troubling for senators, of course. As of now, it appears that Hegseth’s alleged personal indiscretions — rather than his qualifications for the job — are the only thing that could prompt an erosion of GOP support.
