There’s nothing like not being able to lose a single vote in the House to get your blood pressure up! At least, if you’re a Republican who wants a tax bill on President-elect Donald Trump’s desk ASAP. (Democrats, we’re sure you’re settling in with some popcorn on this one.)
So who are the key House Republicans to watch if you’re tracking whether the GOP’s tax push is running into trouble? Here’s who we’ve got our eyes on as the bellwethers for how well Republicans are navigating potential pitfalls with a 217-215 margin looming early next year.
SALTy members: The first person to talk to if you’re figuring out how hard New Yorkers will fight for a bigger state and local tax deduction is Rep. Mike Lawler. There are other SALT proponents who are ready to brawl to get the GOP to loosen the $10,000 SALT cap, which expires with most of the other Trump tax cuts next year.
But Lawler is flirting with a governor run. Angling for statewide office has a way of making lawmakers loud and hard to wrangle.
The deficit hawks: There are a whole lot of Republicans who like to scream about the ever-climbing U.S. debt. But many of them will get a whole lot quieter next year with a Republican in the White House. (Remember: Trump is no deficit hawk.)
But deficit concerns are still a dynamic that key House members and aides are watching closely. Keep an eye on Republicans like Reps. Chip Roy (Texas), Thomas Massie (Ky.) and Tom McClintock (Calif.) to see how much pressure there will be on leaders to pay for at least some of the tax bill’s cost.
The ag allies: Democrats’ signature policy achievement under President Joe Biden, the Inflation Reduction Act, is on the chopping block. Republicans want to claw back spending in the law and scrap some of its tax credits for investments in clean energy. But they’re aware the party will need to tread carefully.
Members representing big agricultural regions are going to get antsy on anything that targets energy programs that involve crops — like biofuels. Think about vulnerable Republicans such as Reps. Don Bacon of Nebraska and Mariannette Miller-Meeks of Iowa. Both squeaked by this November, but they’re likely to face tough reelections again in two years.
Ag types will also get nervous about talk of putting tariffs into a tax bill.
The coalition that’s going to get picky about which clean energy tax credits get rolled back is bigger than farm state lawmakers. So, taking a swipe at this key part of the IRA will be a jigsaw puzzle for GOP leaders to put together.
