Ambitious House Democrats eyeing Senate seats could complicate the party’s chances of flipping the House in 2026.
Senate Democratic retirements in New Hampshire, Michigan and Minnesota are all tempting battle-tested House incumbents to consider ditching their current job to run for statewide office. And House Republicans are gleefully approaching the prospect of not having to face formidable incumbents who have pushed their districts out of play.
In Minnesota, Rep. Angie Craig (D-Minn.) is seriously considering a run to replace Sen. Tina Smith (D-Minn.). Craig was first elected when she flipped a GOP seat in 2018. In November, Craig beat Republican Joe Teirab by 13 points.
In Michigan, Rep. Kristen McDonald Rivet (D-Mich.) is considering a Senate run after being encouraged to hop into the race to succeed retiring Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.). McDonald Rivet, a freshman who’s seen as a rising Democratic star, won Michigan’s 8th District by six points even as President Donald Trump carried the seat in the 2024 presidential election.
And in New Hampshire, Rep. Chris Pappas (D-N.H.) is weighing a run after Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) announced this week she wouldn’t seek reelection. Like Craig, Pappas arrived at the House following the 2018 “Blue Wave.” Pappas beat GOP candidate Russell Prescott in November by eight points to represent New Hampshire’s 1st District.
In all these House seats, Republicans hope that open races without the Democratic incumbents will increase their odds of victory. With the House GOP majority standing at an incredibly slim margin, every seat counts in 2026.
“The math is in our favor,” NRCC Chair Richard Hudson said in a statement. “We will capitalize on this momentum on the battleground and retain and grow our Republican majority.”
In Ohio, Frontline Reps. Greg Landsman (D-Ohio) and Emilia Sykes (D-Ohio) — who both are at risk of being redistricted into unfavorable terrain — are being urged to run statewide. Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine) is also seen as a statewide candidate in 2026.
Despite the prospects of playing defense in tough seats, DCCC spokesperson Viet Shelton told us in a statement that “no one is better at recruiting and working to elect genuine and authentic candidates than the DCCC — and we’ll do it again this cycle.”
In 2024, Democrats won open seats in California’s 47th District and Virginia’s 7th District, while Republicans won the open seat in Michigan’s 7th District.
Republicans aren’t immune from open seat headaches either. Reps. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) and John James (R-Mich.) are seen as likely candidates for governor next fall. Democrats will be closely competing in New York’s 17th District and Michigan’s 10th District, both seats that received heavy outside spending in 2024.
