Here’s a provocative question worth pondering: Can House Republicans get a reconciliation deal?
During the last week, several dynamics have emerged that make us wonder not only if a reconciliation deal is close but whether Republicans can even pull it off at all.
1) Speaker Mike Johnson is expected to meet with moderate House Republicans early this week. As of Sunday night, the timing for this critical discussion wasn’t set.
Johnson faces a group of GOP moderates who see the reconciliation package currently under discussion as an existential political threat, while hardline conservatives are pressing their leadership for hundreds of billions of dollars in additional spending cuts, especially for Medicaid.
Moderates are upset over the GOP leadership’s public insistence that they’ll end up supporting per-capita caps for Medicaid and lowering the federal match rate (FMAP). In reality, these moderates won’t support Medicaid cuts exceeding $450 billion to $500 billion, arguing that to do so could jeopardize health-care coverage for too many constituents back home.
Moderates and the House Republican leadership also are nowhere close to notching an agreement to raise the cap on the state-and-local tax deduction. This is blue-state House Republicans’ hill to die on.
House Republican leaders will be working throughout the week with staffers on the Ways and Means, Energy and Commerce and Agriculture Committees to hammer out the specifics of policy proposals. Rank-and-file members will likely be brought into the process toward the end of the week.
2) Johnson has asked three key committees to delay their reconciliation markups for a week. Those three committees – Ways and Means, Energy and Commerce and Agriculture – have the majority of the reconciliation package in their jurisdictions. The panels are now scheduled to mark up the week of May 12.
House Republicans now face a daunting time crunch to meet Johnson’s Memorial Day deadline for floor action. The House Republican leadership plans to hold a Rules Committee markup on May 19 to prepare the bill for floor consideration that week. If there are any more setbacks, Johnson’s timetable is in jeopardy.
We expect the House Republican leadership to tell rank-and-file Republicans that they won’t adjourn for the Memorial Day recess until the House passes the reconciliation package.
3) The White House is now finally getting engaged in the process, which has both upsides and risks. Johnson, House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, Ways and Means Committee Chair Jason Smith (R-Mo.) and Energy and Commerce Committee Chair Brett Guthrie (R-Ky.) went to the White House last week for a meeting with President Donald Trump. Following that session, the White House seems to be waking up to what’s in this bill – and they want a say in changing it.
Senior Trump administration officials seem to be most interested in drug-price controls and a variety of tax provisions, including rate increases for wealthy Americans. Johnson has expressed opposition to both ideas.
But House GOP leaders are beginning to grow frustrated that the White House is injecting new ideas into the Republicans’ bill at this point in the process.
During an appearance on “Fox News Sunday,” Smith said this when asked about increasing taxes:
“Our focus is to provide tax relief for all Americans, but our priority … is to deliver for working families, small businesses and farmers. As we go through this process, we have to have a fair balance, and we have to thread a needle.”
Smith did allow that the path may be “bumpy” given the GOP’s tight majority in the House.
Johnson said on Fox News Sunday night that “we will get this job done” because the “stakes are too high.”
Elsewhere on the Hill. We’re still waiting on the White House’s $9 billion-plus rescissions package, as well as the Treasury Department to announce the “X date” for the debt limit. That will have a big impact on the reconciliation process.
Remember: We reported that the rescissions process had hit the skids in the Senate. It seems entirely possible that the White House will wait until after reconciliation passes to send the proposed rescissions list to the Hill. At least that’s what many senior Republicans are hoping for anyway.
On Thursday, the House will consider Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s (R-Ga.) bill to rename the Gulf of Mexico to the “Gulf of America.” It will be interesting to see if any Democrats vote for this measure.
FY 2026 funding: The House and Senate Appropriations Committees will begin holding hearings with Cabinet officials on Trump’s FY 2026 budget request. That jaw-dropping proposal, which included huge cuts to housing, environmental and law enforcement, went over like a lead balloon on the Hill with lawmakers in both parties.
– FBI Director Kash Patel will face lawmakers to talk about Trump’s proposed $500 million cut to the bureau. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem will get questions on the Alien Enemies Act and deportations, including from Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.), who went to El Salvador to see Kilmar Abrego Garcia. And Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins will get grilled over what Trump’s trade war means for the U.S. economy and America’s farmers.
