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The world according to Mike Johnson
Happy Friday morning.
LANCASTER, Pa. — Two weeks from today, Mike Johnson will have been speaker of the House for one full year. That’s longer than Kevin McCarthy lasted in the role.
And with 25 days until Election Day, we wanted to catch up with Johnson to discuss his views on the speakership, the upcoming lame-duck session and what 2025 will look like if Republicans keep control of the House.
We had access to Johnson’s closed fundraisers, campaign events and interviewed the speaker on a host of topics crucial for you, our core readership.
Overall takeaways. Johnson has definitely grown into the job over his year as speaker. Has he reinvented the role? Certainly not. Johnson isn’t a backslapper like McCarthy — and many colleagues appreciate that. He’s raising a lot of money and big donors have warmed to him, but Republicans are still getting crushed overall in the money chase. Johnson tells donors that Democrats are outraising him “almost three or four to one.”
But Johnson is more confident than he was when he first won the gavel. The Louisiana Republican seems to have more well-formed views on exercising his office’s power. He’s even a bit self-deprecating. During closed-door fundraisers, he says “I was four inches taller when I took this job. They beat me down mercilessly.” He even jokingly asks crowds if they have questions, comments or advice for him.
Johnson conceded his naivety when he ascended to the speakership last year — something that many of his colleagues understood at the time.
“I did not fully appreciate the scope of it — no one can,” Johnson said. The Louisiana Republican said that the Founding Fathers “didn’t intend for the speaker of the House to be the primary fundraiser for the party.” Of course, they also couldn’t have foreseen that the House would be a billion-dollar battleground every two years.
One further observation: Johnson is clearly growing tired of some of the more attention-hungry members of the conference — and he isn’t afraid to say so. On several occasions, at a private fundraiser and in an interview, Johnson indicated he was sick of the “show ponies” in the House.
“Nobody in this freshman class of Republicans that we’ve recruited that are on the ballot in November — not one of them — is coming to Congress to be famous or get attention for themselves,” Johnson said during a VIP reception here. “What a concept, right?”
The future of the House GOP Conference. This leads us to wonder how Johnson would try to restructure the House if Republicans keep the majority. Sure, Democrats could take power and then Johnson would be out of a job.
But the Louisiana Republican seems intent on raising the threshold for the motion to vacate, the parliamentary process by which the rank and file can oust a speaker.
“I don’t think there’s anybody who thinks the current sword of Damocles is sustainable,” Johnson said.
The speaker also said he wants to reestablish some “parameters” by which members of the House Republican Conference will serve, especially rank-and-file members voting against rules.
“The idea of there being ramifications for voting against the rules of your own party, for example, right?” Johnson said. “That was unheard of. Would have been unthinkable in previous congresses, right?”
News on storm aid. Johnson has visited several pockets of the storm-damaged Southeast and said he believes that Congress will have to pass an aid package that could reach as high as $100 billion.
Johnson said that in an ideal world, he’d like to offset the spending with budget cuts elsewhere, but he didn’t anticipate that would be possible.
Johnson and the world. Johnson is fond of saying that he has spent the last several months on the road, chugging through 220 cities in 40 states. He’ll be in 65 more cities in 24 states before Election Day.
But he has quietly kept abreast on intelligence about the various U.S. conflicts across the globe — including in Israel. Johnson told us he has visited FBI offices around the country to hold secure calls with the Biden administration about the war in Israel.
Johnson is very supportive of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Johnson declined to say whether Israel should hit Iranian nuclear sites, but did say that President Joe Biden “is not in any position to dictate military strategy to Netanyahu.”
The most critical moment of Johnson’s speakership came in April, when he put a bill on the floor to send $61 billion in aid to Ukraine. Conservative hardliners immediately triggered a motion to vacate, which the Louisiana Republican beat back with the help of Democrats.
The war in Ukraine shows no sign of ending. And Johnson told us his support for sending additional money to Kyiv is waning:
“I don’t have an appetite for further Ukraine funding, and I hope it’s not necessary. If President Trump wins, I believe that he actually can bring that conflict to a close. I really do. I think he’ll call [Russian President Vladimir] Putin and tell him that this is enough. And I think everybody around the world is weary of this, and they want it to be resolved. So whatever the terms are, I’m not sure, but I think if Kamala Harris is president, I don’t think it ends, and that’s a desperate and dangerous scenario.”
We will have much more from our trip with Johnson in the Midday and PM editions for Premium subscribers — including Johnson’s view on de minimis, outbound investment reform, the particulars of the 2025 tax debate, including SALT, and the speaker’s hopes for the first 100 days of the next Congress.
— Jake Sherman
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Fischer rebounds after sluggish start triggered GOP panic
An unexpectedly close Senate race in deep-red Nebraska recently set off alarm bells in the GOP — including a rare plea for help from a House member in the Cornhusker State.
Rep. Adrian Smith (R-Neb.) sent a message to some House Republicans last week warning that independent candidate Dan Osborn has made Sen. Deb Fischer’s (R-Neb.) reelection race shockingly tight. Smith even asked lawmakers to chip in money for Fischer’s race, according to a person familiar with the request.
The non-partisan Cook Political Report with Amy Walter shifted the contest from “solid Republican” to “likely Republican” late last month as polls showed Osborn tied or beating Fischer.
Yet despite the hand-wringing over Fischer’s campaign strategy, there’s little fear that she’ll actually lose. Nebraska is a solidly red state, and former President Donald Trump’s margin of victory there in 2020 was 19 points. Fischer’s most recent push on the airwaves is also proving to be helpful.
This is news: Fischer is now leading Osborn, drawing 48% to Osborn’s 42%, according to a recent poll commissioned by Fischer’s campaign and obtained exclusively by Punchbowl News. Ten percent of those polled were undecided.
The survey, conducted Oct. 5-8, concludes that Fischer’s recent advertising “has clearly been effective.” The polling memo states that, with “proper funding,” the race will be “put to bed.”
Fischer’s campaign manager Derek Oden told us he expects the “positive trend to continue.”
“We still have work to do, and we’re running hard, but this is a good sign,” Oden said.
Still, the NRSC had to get involved in late September. Republicans privately griped that this shouldn’t have been necessary and it takes critical resources away from actual battlegrounds. GOP strategists attribute Fischer’s initially sluggish polling numbers to her campaign’s relatively late start on the airwaves.
Senate Minority Whip John Thune, who has traveled to Nebraska on Fischer’s behalf, told us at an event in Indiana Thursday night that “the votes are coming home” for Fischer but “it’s been a lot closer than people thought it would be.”
“We knew that once she got up on the air it would right itself. I think part of it was, she’s running against somebody who was just not defined. The advantage of that is, you can be anything people want you to be. He was getting away with that.”
Cornhusker politics: Fischer’s campaign went up with an ad in late September portraying Osborn as a far-left progressive and noting that Fischer has Trump’s endorsement. Another ad released this week pans Osborn as a “Democrat in disguise.”
Republicans also believe Fischer will get a natural boost from Sen. Pete Ricketts’ (R-Neb.) presence on the ballot. Ricketts served as governor for two terms and is a popular figure in the state.
It’s rare for both of a state’s senators to be on the ballot at the same time, but Ricketts’ race is a special election to fill the remaining two years of former Sen. Ben Sasse’s (R-Neb.) term.
Nebraska isn’t a typical red state. It allocates its electoral votes by congressional district, which means the state’s second congressional district — which encompasses the Omaha metropolitan area — is often in play for Democrats at the presidential level. And Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.), who represents that district, is in a difficult reelection fight.
— Andrew Desiderio and Melanie Zanona
Weekday mornings, The Daily Punch brings you inside Capitol Hill, the White House, and Washington.
Listen NowLEADER LOOK
Jordan steps up his giving to the NRCC
News: Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) has cut a $500,000 check to the NRCC in the final weeks before the election, according to a source familiar with the matter. This comes on top of another $1 million that Jordan transferred to the House GOP’s campaign arm late last month.
Jordan has now contributed $2.5 million to the NRCC this cycle. That makes the Ohio Republican one of the top non-leadership benefactors for the GOP campaign committee, which is being outraised by the DCCC.
Of course, many Republicans believe Jordan is positioning himself for a future leadership race, depending on what happens in November. While Jordan insists he’s only interested in running for the House Judiciary Committee gavel, few of Jordan’s colleagues believe him.
Jordan has been zipping around the country campaigning for colleagues from across the ideological spectrum — including members who opposed him for speaker last year. And now, Jordan has significantly stepped up his giving to the NRCC, which could help improve his image as a team player.
— Melanie Zanona
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SURROGATE WATCH
Shapiro helps Dems in swing states, Pennsylvania races
HARRISBURG, Pa. — Gov. Josh Shapiro is working behind the scenes to help Democrats get control of Congress and statehouses in November.
Shapiro has become one of the most sought-after Democratic surrogates, embarking on a cross-country tour that includes stops in swing states and all over Pennsylvania with more to come before Election Day.
This weekend, Shapiro is headed to Georgia to campaign for Vice President Kamala Harris. He’ll also go to New Hampshire at the end of the month to boost Democrats there.
Earlier in October, Shapiro campaigned near Madison, Wis., for Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.). He also trekked to North Carolina late last month to aid in the governor’s race.
Shapiro’s team sent us a statement saying he plans to “continue working to help win these races and make Hakeem Jeffries the next Speaker of the House.”
Helping the map: The governor hosted a fundraiser in Philadelphia last month for Pennsylvania Democratic Reps. Chris Deluzio, Matt Cartwright and Susan Wild — three incumbents facing some of the toughest GOP challenges. He’s campaigned extensively for Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) too.
Last week, Shapiro stumped for Ashley Ehasz, who’s facing a rematch against Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.). And Shapiro has canvassed and campaigned for Democrat Janelle Stelson, who is challenging Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa.). The governor is expected to return to both districts in the coming weeks.
“There’s no way that Gov. Shapiro’s help isn’t having an impact,” Cartwright told us. “He is an enormously popular governor.”
Republicans’ response: Rep. Dan Meuser (R-Pa.), who has attended events with Shapiro in the past, said the governor not being on the presidential ticket will only help Republicans win the Keystone State.
“He got a gut punch — and many of his friends and supporters did as well — from Kamala Harris,” Meuser told us. “We thought it was a done deal and we’re glad he wasn’t picked from a [Pennsylvania] standpoint and a Trump standpoint.”
— Mica Soellner
THE MONEY GAME
News: Kirsten Engel, the Democrat running against Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R-Ariz.), raised $2.97 million in Q3. Ciscomani is one of the most endangered House Republicans and represents a seat that President Joe Biden carried in 2020.
Engel’s nearly $3 million haul is another sign of Democratic fundraising strength in competitive races.
— Max Cohen
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MOMENTS
ALL TIMES EASTERN
12:30 p.m.
President Joe Biden will receive a briefing on the response efforts to Hurricanes Milton and Helene.
1 p.m.
Biden will provide an update on the federal government’s response to Hurricanes Milton and Helene in the Press Briefing Room. Vice President Kamala Harris will attend virtually.
2:30 p.m.
Biden will get his daily intelligence briefing.
CLIPS
NYT
“Barack Obama urged Black men to drop their “excuses” and vote for Kamala Harris”
– Erica L. Green in Pittsburgh and Katie Rogers in D.C.
WaPo
“Hurricane Milton’s aftermath leaves at least 14 dead, homes damaged”
– Bryan Pietsch in Sarasota, Fla., Molly Hennessy-Fiske in Saint Pete Beach, Joshua Partlow in Lakewood Park, Lori Rozsa in Ocala and Joanna Slater in Williamstown, Mass.
Bloomberg
“Boeing Hardens Tone With Union, Laments ‘Bad Faith Bargaining’”
– Benedikt Kammel
WSJ
“Iran’s Secret Warning to U.S. Allies: Don’t Help Israel, or You’re Next”
– Summer Said, Nancy A. Youssef and Omar Abdel-Baqui in Dubai, United Arab Emirates
Politico
“Senate Republicans to save millions of dollars on ads — thanks to the FEC”
– Ally Mutnick, Jessica Piper and Madison Fernandez
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Learn more about our commitment and see how together, we can achieve nothing.
Editorial photos provided by Getty Images. Political ads courtesy of AdImpact.
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