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October 21, 2022
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PRESENTED BY
THE TOP
Happy Friday morning. There are 18 days until Election Day.
We’re going to start this morning with an analysis of the cash advantage Democrats have. But be sure to read the second item, where we have some news on the debt limit.
Vulnerable House Dems’ cash advantage: The money landscape isn’t all doom and gloom for Democrats in their uphill battle to keep the House. Despite being massively outraised by Republican super PACs, the majority party holds a key advantage heading into the campaign’s homestretch – vulnerable Democratic incumbents are sitting on millions more in cash than their GOP challengers.
This matters because candidates can reserve cheaper air time than PACs or committees.
Here’s a taste of the biggest cash-on-hand gaps between Democratic incumbents and their challengers in races that the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter rates as toss-ups. All favor Democrats.
| → | Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) has $3.68 million more on hand than her GOP challenger, state Sen. Tom Barrett. |
Here’s how the two sides see the disparity.
“Slotkin has always been a darling of the progressive left and raised millions from coastal elites. In spite of the fact she’s outspending Senator Barrett by 5-1, she remains neck-and-neck in the polls,” Barrett’s campaign told us about the cash-on-hand deficit. “Her war chest is not big enough to mask her record.”
“Rep. Slotkin has held more events, engaged with more local media & raised more for her campaign without taking a dime of corporate PAC money,” Slotkin spokesperson Austin Cook said. “Our opponent has had to let shady outside groups like CLF carry his entire campaign.”
| → | Rep. Elaine Luria (D-Va.) has $2.59 million more on hand then her GOP opponent, state Sen. Jen Kiggans. |
| → | Rep. Angie Craig (D-Minn.) has $2.53 million more on hand than her Republican opponent, Tyler Kistner. |
| → | Rep. Kim Schrier (D-Wash.) has $1.89 million more on hand than her GOP opponent, Matt Larkin. |
| → | Rep. Tom Malinowski (D-N.J.) has $1.63 million more on hand than his GOP challenger, former state Sen. Tom Kean Jr. |
| → | Rep. Chris Pappas (D-N.H.) has $1.61 million more on hand than Republican Karoline Leavitt. |
“Nancy Pelosi is lighting money on fire trying to save her puppet, and Chris Pappas knows it,” Chris D’Anna, Leavitt’s campaign spokesperson, said.
Here’s Pappas in a statement to us:
To be clear, the success of the GOP super PACs is still a major part of the story here. As we detailed last week, Republicans are outspending Democrats in a majority of toss-up races, thanks to groups such as CLF. And these super PACs are spending sums that dwarf what individual candidates can outlay. CLF is spending $6 million to try to oust DCCC Chair Sean Patrick Maloney in New York, for instance. The group is doling out similar amounts in other races.
For context: Republicans point to a number of factors that cause this discrepancy. Some Republican challengers had to fight through tough primaries. In the case of Leavitt, New Hampshire’s late Sept. 13 primary played a role, although the former Trump White House aide has shown an ability to quickly raise money since then.
Challengers also faced headwinds in a redistricting year where some lines were finalized fairly late in the cycle.
And as we said, despite the Democratic cash-on-hand advantage, Republicans hold the advantage in super PAC spending. In five of these six races — with the exception of Pappas’ district — Republican outside groups are set to spend more money on ads during the final weeks of the race than Democratic outside groups, according to ad reservation data provided by AdImpact.
| → | An example: Barrett’s campaign reported having just $115,053 on hand at the end of the third quarter. But GOP outside groups have reserved a further $4.44 million in ads to boost Barrett’s candidacy through Election Day. Democrats have reserved $3.86 million in spots. |
Top House Democrats are increasingly looking for ways to blunt the GOP’s money advantage in the election cycle’s closing stages. Speaker Nancy Pelosi derided the GOP’s “big dark money” operation to us this week. And we’ve reported how Pelosi and House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer are mounting a last-minute push to beef up the DCCC’s coffers by writing checks to the committee and pledging to match colleagues’ dues contributions.
Behind the scenes: In recent days, Frontline Democrats have been privately complaining to each other and leadership about members who aren’t in tough races and haven’t met their requirements for DCCC. Some lawmakers have even discussed not supporting colleagues in leadership or committee races later this year if they didn’t contribute to the campaign arm.
— Max Cohen and Heather Caygle
DEBT LIMIT DOUBTS
Boyle, House Dems seek action on debt limit during lame duck
A group of prominent House Democrats led by Rep. Brendan Boyle (D-Pa.) wants party leaders to take action on legislation “to permanently undo the threat posed by the debt limit” during the upcoming lame-duck session.
In other words, these Democrats want to get rid of the debt limit.
In a letter to Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, these Democrats point out that GOP lawmakers are already threatening to use a fight over raising the debt limit to force cuts in federal spending and programs next year. This includes House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, which we reported earlier this week.
House Democrats signing onto the Boyle letter include Democratic Caucus Chair Hakeem Jeffries, Budget Committee Chair John Yarmuth (Ky.), Congressional Progressive Caucus Chair Pramila Jayapal (Wash.), Rules Committee Chair Jim McGovern (Mass.), and Natural Resources Committee Chair Raúl Grijalva (Ariz.), among others. The group is still collecting signatures on this letter.
We must note here that Boyle is close to the Biden White House.
The advocacy groups Social Security Works and Indivisible are backing the effort as well.
There have been calls to get rid of the debt limit after more than a decade of serious brinkmanship by House and Senate Republicans over the issue. A number of Democrats have come to think of the debt limit vote as useless. The thinking goes like this – Congress has already spent the money and Republicans use the mechanism to hold Democrats hostage over spending.
Among the options seen as viable are eliminating the debt ceiling altogether or allowing the Treasury secretary to unilaterally lift it without requiring congressional approval.
The challenge, of course, is that Democrats would need 60 votes and a supportive president to eliminate the debt ceiling.
Here are some snippets from the Democrats’ letter:
The Democrats added:
Despite this push from prominent House Democrats, we still have a hard time seeing Congress taking any action on the debt limit during the lame duck. There are several reasons why it’s unlikely.
First, Congress never, ever does anything until the last possible moment. Never. And when possible, all deadlines are pushed back or kicked down the road. In this case, there’s no deadline yet since no one is sure when the debt limit will be reached. It’s just an estimate. So there is no deadline to spur congressional action, despite the gravity of the issue.
Second, Republicans are not going to allow any legislative proposal to pass since it eliminates their political leverage on a critical issue. Especially if they’ve just won the election.
Third, there’s no time. The lame-duck is already going to be packed, and passing a bill on this would take weeks on the Senate floor even if Schumer could somehow get the 60 votes he needs to break a GOP filibuster.
– John Bresnahan
PUNCHBOWL NEWS EVENTS
What Miami Mayor Francis Suarez told us
Missed our conversation with Miami Mayor Francis Suarez on Monday? Catch up here.
DOWNTOWN DOWNLOAD
| → | Amazon hired Salt Point Strategies to lobby on “[i]ssues related to unlicensed spectrum allocations, non-geosynchronous satellite constellations, and consumer technology devices.” |
| → | The Girl Scouts of North East Ohio is getting in the lobbying game. They have hired G2G Consulting to lobby on supporting “STEM education for girls.” |
– Jake Sherman
THE CAMPAIGN
| → | New: Liberal groups Priorities USA and Black Progressive Action Coalition are launching a $900,000 digital ad campaign in Pennsylvania to motivate Black voters to turn out for Democratic Senate candidate Lt. Gov. John Fetterman. |
The groups are running two digital ads, both featuring young Black voters, that finish with the message “Vote for John Fetterman November 8.”
“I’m sick of folks coming around telling us, ‘Just vote,’” a man says in one ad. “Truth is, they’re coming for our rights, our people, you. So no, ‘Just vote’ won’t fix everything. But that’s no excuse for doing nothing.”
The investment comes as some Democrats are sounding the alarm that the party may face a turnout issue with young voters and people of color this November.
Priorities USA is also teaming up with Commonwealth Communications for a $1 million digital ad campaign slamming GOP gubernatorial nominee Doug Mastriano for his abortion rights views.
| → | Oracle CEO Larry Ellison put $10 million into Opportunity Matters Fund, a super PAC that supports Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.). Scott is seen as a possible 2024 presidential candidate or VP nominee. |
— Max Cohen and Jake Sherman
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One size rarely fits all. That’s why Apollo provides custom capital solutions designed to help companies achieve their ambitious business goals. Think Credit New