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The nonagenarian Senate GOP chair

GOP steps up transgender attacks for closing message

The Vault: The tax lobbying bonanza

Tech is urging Congress to formalize the AI Safety Institute

THE TOP

The nonagenarian Senate GOP chair

Happy Tuesday morning. There are 14 days until Election Day.

At age 91, Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) would be one of the oldest senators to ever chair a committee, with the Iowa Republican in line to head up the powerful Senate Judiciary Committee in the next Congress — provided Republicans win on Nov. 5.

But behind the scenes, GOP senators and aides are privately raising concerns about Grassley’s ability to once again lead the Judiciary panel, which will play a prominent role over the next two years regardless of who’s in the White House.

There could be multiple Supreme Court nominations, and the next president — whether it’s Kamala Harris or Donald Trump — will also prioritize other judicial picks. Plus, the panel has jurisdiction over several high-profile legislative areas, from Big Tech regulation to abortion rights.

Grassley’s office is already making preparations for him to reclaim the Judiciary gavel, and there are no indications Grassley is being pressured to step aside. Grassley’s defenders say the eight-term senator is the obvious choice for the post given his record of shepherding Trump’s Supreme Court picks through the chamber amid unrelenting opposition and outside pressure.

“Even at age 91, Grassley runs circles around his colleagues,” said Mike Davis, Grassley’s former chief counsel for nominations. “It is wishful thinking if people think he’s not going to be the next Republican chair of Senate Judiciary. Trump will be very happy it’s Grassley because Grassley has proven he’s very effective for Trump.”

Not everyone agrees.

‘Not a knife fighter’: A Republican senator who sits on the committee, granted anonymity to speak candidly, doubted Grassley’s ability to go toe-to-toe with the committee’s top Democrat, Sen. Dick Durbin of Illinois, as well as with a Harris White House.

“Chuck is extremely sharp. A lot of it is just his disposition — he’s not a knife fighter. He’s just too genteel for that,” the GOP senator told us. “I’ve watched Durbin operate and he is good at his job. He will not hesitate.”

To be sure, Republicans aren’t comparing Grassley to the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.), who opted to step aside as the committee’s top Democrat in late 2020 amid questions about her mental acuity. At the time, Feinstein faced furious criticism from Democratic activists over how she handled Brett Kavanaugh’s and Amy Coney Barrett’s SCOTUS nominations.

The concerns about Grassley — expressed to us by several senators and aides — stem from the expectation that there could be multiple Supreme Court openings in the next Congress, especially if Trump wins. Some Republicans don’t view Grassley as the type of “fighter” necessary to combat Democrats going all-out to attack any Trump nominee.

Another GOP committee member suggested to us that Justices Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito could retire next year, for example. And a number of Democrats have long raised concerns about Justice Sonia Sotomayor’s health.

“The stakes are going to be high,” this senator added.

Musical chairs: On Judiciary, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) is second in seniority to Grassley. Graham served as Judiciary chair during Barrett’s confirmation process.

Graham is currently the ranking Republican on Judiciary, while Grassley holds that post on the Budget Committee. However, Grassley has two years of eligibility left as Judiciary chair, and the seniority to jump in front of Graham.

The Budget Committee gavel — while it would come with staff and the ability to hold hearings — is only really critical if Republicans need to do budget resolutions for reconciliation. Republicans can do that if they hold the House, Senate and White House. Otherwise, Budget isn’t a frontline committee like Judiciary — at least not anymore.

Yet some conservatives are also uncomfortable with the idea of Graham serving as Judiciary chair, especially if Harris is elected president. Graham has a history of voting in favor of Democratic judicial nominees.

For his part, Graham told us Monday evening that he has “all the confidence in the world in Sen. Grassley’s ability to chair the Senate Judiciary Committee.”

Grassley’s response: Grassley’s supporters say the Supreme Court’s conservative majority wouldn’t have happened without him, dating back to his decision to forgo a hearing on Merrick Garland’s nomination in 2016 — although that was mostly driven by then-Majority Leader Mitch McConnell.

Grassley was also Judiciary chair during the confirmation hearings for Kavanaugh and Neil Gorsuch, which were extraordinarily controversial. Especially Kavanaugh.

“Would any other senator have been able to do what Grassley did?” asked Michael Zona, a former top Grassley aide. “Has anyone had more success in confirming judges than Grassley? Who else has demonstrated they won’t buckle under political pressure more than Grassley?”

Clare Slattery, a spokesperson for Grassley, cited the senator’s “proven track record of success.”

“Senator Grassley looks forward to continuing to deliver on his rock solid conservative record as Judiciary Chairman in the next Republican Senate Majority,” Slattery added.

— Andrew Desiderio and John Bresnahan

GOP steps up transgender attacks for closing message

Republicans in competitive races are leaning into a culture-war closing message, accusing their Democratic opponents of being too extreme when it comes to transgender rights.

GOP groups have spent nearly $70 million on transgender-focused congressional ads this cycle, per AdImpact. It’s a coordinated attempt by Republicans to flip the script on Democrats who present themselves as “Team Normal.”

“The divide in America today is normal versus crazy,” House Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) said in Freeland, Mich., this weekend. “It’s crazy to say men should compete against women in sports.”

Nationwide, Republicans are running anti-transgender ads in 10 competitive Senate races and nine swing House districts. GOP groups have spent $64 million on Senate ads on the issue and $4.5 million on House ads.

The Republican strategy: While transgender athletes aren’t a top priority for voters nationwide, the GOP is betting that emphasizing the issue will turn off some independents to Democrats while juicing the Republican base. In toss-up Michigan races, the party is prioritizing ads about transgender issues in schools.

— Rep. John James’ (R-Mich.) campaign is claiming his opponent Carl Marlinga is “backed by extremist groups who want to allow school officials to medicate students so they can change gender and hide it from their parents.”

— Former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.) is hammering his Senate opponent, Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.), on transgender athletes playing high school sports.

“She voted to allow biological males in women’s sports, men in women’s locker rooms,” Rogers told us. “I’m sorry, that’s not ‘Team Normal.’”

Democratic pushback: Just three Democrats — Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas) and Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-Texas) — are running ads to claim Republicans are lying about their positions. Democrats have only spent $1.6 million on ads on the topic.

“The ads simply aren’t true,” Brown told us this month in Ohio, noting fact-checkers rated the claims as false. “We will answer that it’s not true, we will show the ads are a lie, we will show that my opponent knows they’re a lie.”

Marlinga thought the ad was a “bad Saturday Night Live spoof” when he first viewed James’ attack.

“It’s weird, it’s creepy. It’s something that makes me wonder, ‘Where is his mind that he can create this attack out of nothing?’” Marlinga said of James.

Slotkin told us Republicans were trying to “scare and inflame people” on “something that is happening in a small fraction of schools around the country.”

Most Democrats maintain that transgender issues in schools weren’t a concrete concern they heard from voters.

“When I’m on the doors, people are talking about reproductive freedom, costs and tax cuts, not these culture war issues,” Curtis Hertel, the Democrat running for Slotkin’s open seat, told us.

Here’s some news: The DCCC’s outside legal counsel sent a letter earlier this month to local TV stations in Pennsylvania asking them to not run an ad accusing Democrat candidate Janelle Stelson of supporting tax-payer funded “sex change operations for prisoners.” The letter, which was obtained by Punchbowl News, says Stelson never made that claim and doesn’t support that position.

Stelson is challenging former Freedom Caucus chair Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa.) in a competitive race. The ad, which ran through Oct. 20, was only a $30,000 ad buy, but Democrats said they needed to call out misinformation.

Yet House Freedom Action, which is responsible for the spot, said they stand by the ad in a letter of their own. HFA appears to be drawing a loose connection to make their claim. The Human Rights Campaign has endorsed Stelson, and the group also supports transgender inmates having access to gender-affirming surgery, the HFA said in its letter.

— Max Cohen, Melanie Zanona and Andrew Desiderio

The Vault: The tax lobbying bonanza

A tax fight brewing surely means one thing: lots of money to go around on K Street.

With a big tax bill on deck when the Trump tax cuts expire in 2025, companies are staffing up to flex their influence.

There have been more than 100 registrations for lobbying on taxes since the start of July, according to congressional lobbying records.

Here’s a sampling of recent notable moves:

– The Carlyle Group, the private equity giant, hired former Rep. Peter Roskam (R-Ill.) and Chris Jones at Baker & Hostetler to work on “[m]ultiple provisions within the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act” and more.

– Hollier & Associates picked up the American Council of Life Insurers for lobbying on taxes, including the expiring Trump tax cuts. Will Hollier is Sen. Mike Crapo’s (R-Idaho) former chief of staff. Crapo will be Senate Finance Committee chair if Republicans flip the Senate.

– IBM hired Washington Tax & Public Policy Group to work on issues related to corporate and international taxes. Both are part of the 2025 debate.

– Brownstein signed ConocoPhillips, the oil and gas company, for work on energy, corporate and international taxes.

– The RATE Coalition tapped Michelle Dimarob to lobby on the corporate tax rate. Dimarob recently founded a firm after leaving Altria, the tobacco company. RATE represents some of the biggest U.S. companies including American Express, AT&T, Capital One, GM and Walmart.

– ADM, a major food processing company, hired Roskam and Jones at Baker & Hostetler to work on policies related to the Trump tax cuts and Inflation Reduction Act, Democrats’ 2022 tax package. That wasn’t ADM’s only tax hire.

– Fierce Government Relations picked up Stripe, the payments platform, for work including on the Trump tax cuts.

– The Bipartisan Policy Center’s political arm brought on a team of former GOP leadership aides at Harbinger Strategies to lobby on tax, including “tax reform.”

Q3 mentions: The tax fight is also popping up in quarterly lobbying filings as work intensifies on the 2025 debate.

To name a few, mentions of lobbying on the Trump tax cuts cropped up in Q3 disclosures from the AFL-CIO, Cardinal Health, Coca-Cola, Kraft Heinz, Pfizer and Starbucks.

Election angle: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce just announced a seven-figure ad buy focused on the 2025 tax fight. The ads are airing in competitive races over the next two weeks — just in time for Election Day.

The new ads praise 16 incumbents, including Reps. Don Bacon (R-Neb.), Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-Ore.), Marc Molinaro (R-N.Y.) and Michelle Steel (R-Calif.). The U.S. Chamber is backing only one Democrat with the buy: Maine Rep. Jared Golden, who’s known for bucking his party.

A few of the new ads go after several Democrats, including Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.), the most vulnerable Senate incumbent.

– Laura Weiss

TECH TALK

Tech is urging Congress to formalize the AI Safety Institute

News: A group of tech giants, industry groups and think tanks are pushing Congress to make a key Commerce Department AI initiative permanent before the end of the year.

Amazon, Google, OpenAI, Anthropic, Microsoft, IBM and other tech companies implored congressional leaders to formalize the AI Safety Institute in a letter obtained exclusively by Punchbowl News.

“There is a critical opportunity for the U.S. to lead multilateral efforts through its own AI Safety Institute — or risk letting other countries write the rules for this powerful technology,” the letter, led by the Information Technology Industry Council, said.

AISI, which the Biden administration launched last November, researches safety and security standards for AI. It might sound like a minor function, particularly since the standards aren’t even mandatory.

Industry, though, is counting on those standards — and actively collaborating to develop them — so the benchmarks can form the basis of future regulation.

Tech sees even voluntary standards as setting expectations that’ll keep wild claims on the fringes of the marketplace and shore up consumer confidence. The tech industry has previously backed AISI, but is using the letter to double down on the institute for the end of the year.

Other signers of the letter include the Consumer Technology Association, BSA, the Federation of American Scientists and the Center for AI Policy.

Looking at the lame duck: The two bills that the industry is backing — the Future of AI Innovation Act in the Senate and the AI Advancement and Reliability Act in the House — do have a chance of riding on the annual defense authorization package. They’re bipartisan and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has made clear he’s eager to do something on AI.

There’s urgency too. Tech believes that if former President Donald Trump is elected, he’ll dismantle the Biden approach to AI, including potentially the institute.

AISI isn’t a slam dunk. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), the top Republican on the Commerce Committee, was able to get the Senate version of AISI authorization to pull back on diversity initiatives. Schumer may have to accept that, but it could make him uneasy given concerns about algorithmic fairness.

Some competition reformers also worry the biggest vendors are using the standards process to get their own products and procedures fixed into future regulations.

— Ben Brody

THE CAMPAIGN

Brown getting backup: End Citizens United is launching a $250,000 ad buy boosting Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio).

One ad slams Republican candidate Bernie Moreno as a “shady car dealer” who “screwed over his own workers.” Another spot mentions Moreno’s business controversies.

DMFI attacks Trump: Democratic Majority for Israel PAC is running an ad in swing states saying former President Donald Trump has “a long history of supporting antisemites.” The six-figure buy slams Trump for associating with Kanye West and Nick Fuentes.

Vasquez’s contrast ad: Rep. Gabe Vasquez (D-N.M.) touts his efforts to lower prescription drug prices in a new ad, while attacking former GOP Rep. Yvette Herrell, his opponent. Vasquez is running the ad in English and Spanish.

— Max Cohen

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