The Archive

IN THIS EDITION

What’s at stake in the race to succeed McConnell

The Vault: Eyes on China Committee for outbound reform compromise

The under-the-radar Michigan House race

Equality PAC raises over $20 million to boost LGBTQ candidates

THE TOP

What’s at stake in the race to succeed McConnell

Happy Friday morning. There are 11 days until Election Day.

Today also marks the one-year anniversary of Mike Johnson becoming speaker.

Senate SWOT: A semi-regular Punchbowl News tradition is our SWOT for each leader — strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats.

This morning we wanted to do this for the candidates vying to succeed Mitch McConnell as Senate GOP leader: Minority Whip John Thune, Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) and Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.).

Most Republican senators view the race as a two-man contest between Thune and Cornyn. Scott is focused on his own (likely) reelection in Florida. The 71-year-old Scott threw his hat in the ring largely to represent the views of hardline conservatives who want major changes to the leadership structure.

Thune and Cornyn are a lot alike. Several GOP senators have told us privately that they’d be fine with either as leader and don’t have a strong preference. Regardless of who wins, that person will constantly be compared to the iconic McConnell.

Yet if Donald Trump wins the presidential race, dealing with him in the White House will be a daily — sometimes hourly — challenge for the eventual victor, to put it mildly.

Trump demands total loyalty and is often driven by outside forces — social media and conservative media personalities — who don’t deal within the realm of congressional or political reality. In this respect, Trump could very well be a hindrance to the GOP agenda, especially when it comes to the looming tax debate. That’s not to mention potentially controversial Cabinet or agency nominations.

Both Thune and Cornyn have committed to keeping the filibuster intact, but Trump could very well push them to gut it. Republicans remind us often that they resisted Trump’s calls to do this during his first administration. But the pressure from Trump would be immense if the GOP again controls the trifecta — White House, House and Senate.

If Vice President Kamala Harris wins and Democrats take the House, there could be a new president, new speaker and new Senate majority leader. They’d all be looking to make deals while cementing their own hold on power.

JOHN THUNE

Strengths: Thune has the advantage of incumbency — he’s currently the No. 2 Senate Republican — and as such, he’s viewed as the frontrunner by GOP senators. Thune has also been a strong fundraiser for Republican candidates this cycle.

Thune is affable and well-liked across all factions of the conference. Thune has the benefit of having chaired a Senate committee (Commerce) through which he made his mark on a number of policy areas. He was also a member of the “Core Four” that crafted the 2017 tax bill. Unlike Cornyn — a lawyer — Thune has an MBA.

Thune took over for McConnell for several months last year while the Kentucky Republican was away from the Capitol recovering from a fall.

Weaknesses: Thune has a rocky history with Trump, which is a problem in today’s GOP. They’ve since mended their relationship, but it’s worth remembering that Trump once tried — unsuccessfully — to recruit a primary challenger to take on Thune.

Thune and Trump spoke on the phone as recently as this week, according to a source familiar with the matter.

Opportunities: The 63-year-old Thune — first elected to Congress in 1996 — has a chance to serve as GOP leader for a while if he wins. Probably not as long as McConnell, but there’d be plenty of chances for Thune to shape the party’s direction, with or without Trump.

Threats: The biggest threat to Thune — and Cornyn, frankly — at this point is Trump. If Trump comes out and endorses a candidate, or someone not currently running, it could seriously disrupt the leadership contest. But don’t forget that this is a secret-ballot election.

JOHN CORNYN

Strengths: Cornyn has proven himself to be a powerhouse fundraiser for Republicans, having raised more than $400 million since entering the Senate in 2002. The genial Cornyn — who came to the Senate in 2002 — chaired the NRSC for two terms and has his own joint fundraising committee.

The 72-year-old Cornyn preceded Thune as Senate GOP whip, during which he helped shepherd through the GOP tax bill as well as Trump’s first two Supreme Court nominations. He also successfully whipped a rules change.

Weaknesses: Cornyn, too, has a complicated past with Trump, having openly questioned his ability to win in 2024. But like Thune, Cornyn has repaired his relationship with Trump. Cornyn appeared with the former president on the campaign trail recently.

Since leaving leadership, Cornyn has struck major bipartisan deals with Democrats, from the CHIPS package to the landmark gun safety bill. Conservatives opposed both, and neither won support from a majority of Senate Republicans.

Opportunities: Cornyn’s fundraising operation has the infrastructure to help Republicans all across the country. He knows how to make deals. And he’s a leading GOP voice on immigration, guns, national security and other issues.

Threats: Cornyn is up for reelection in 2026 and has said he’s running. But if Cornyn loses this leadership bid, would he want to go through a tough $100 million-plus race while facing backlash from conservatives back home?

— Andrew Desiderio and John Bresnahan

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The under-the-radar Michigan House race

MOUNT MORRIS, Mich. — Rep. Dan Kildee’s (D-Mich.) upcoming retirement has spurred a competitive contest to succeed the Democrat in a key battleground district. The race, which the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter says is a toss-up, has flown under the radar nationally.

We caught up with both Democrat Kristen McDonald Rivet and Republican Paul Junge to hear their pitches to voters in the 8th District over the weekend. McDonald Rivet spoke to us after rallying canvassers in a union hall, while we talked to Junge following an event with Speaker Mike Johnson at an airport. Here’s what we learned.

The issues: Both candidates told us rising prices were a major concern for voters that they wanted to address.

Junge said there’s “a desire for change around the district” as a result of financial hardship coupled with “a lawless border.”

McDonald Rivet pointed to her experience as a state senator delivering “immediate tax breaks for seniors and people making less than 60 grand” as the solution to inflationary worries.

The presidential race: Junge recently spoke at a rally for former President Donald Trump and predicted that he’ll win Michigan.

“I want to thank Donald Trump and all of these national Republicans that are showing up here in Michigan’s Eighth District because they know this is a battleground district,” Junge said at a Freeland, Mich., rally on Saturday.

While Junge is showing zero daylight from the top of the ticket, McDonald Rivet offered some light criticism of Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign.

“There’s a lot of good news that I wish the top of the ticket would talk about more,” McDonald Rivet said, referencing jobs created in the district by the bipartisan infrastructure law and the CHIPS Act.

The attack ads: On the airwaves, Junge and the NRCC are accusing McDonald Rivet of supporting transgender athletes playing high school sports. As we’ve reported, this is a nationwide strategy by Republicans running in tough races across the country. Per Junge, the message resonates with parents, grandparents and younger voters.

But McDonald Rivet said the ads are “pretty despicable.”

“Those decisions are left to local school boards and it’s not an issue in Michigan,” McDonald Rivet said. “You got to ask yourself, why, when we are in a place where we have really high senior poverty levels and families can’t afford food, that that’s going to be the first ad out of the box from my opponent.”

For her part, McDonald Rivet slams Junge as “a guy who just showed up with his trust fund and is trying to ride a wave into office.”

“I have Michigan roots,” Junge told us in response. “People in this district, what they want to hear about is, ‘What are you going to do for us?’”

— Max Cohen

MONEY MOVES

Equality PAC raises over $20 million to boost LGBTQ candidates

First in Punchbowl News: The Equality PAC is providing a significant boost to LGBTQ congressional candidates across the country, raising over $20 million to help Democrats in close races.

The PAC, co-chaired by Reps. Mark Takano (D-Calif.) and Ritchie Torres (D-N.Y.), is expecting historic gains this cycle in their effort to elect and reelect LGBTQ candidates, which include 15 incumbents and challengers. Those wins could potentially make for the greatest number of openly LGBTQ members ever to serve in Congress next year.

“We’re electing LGBTQ trailblazers from places like Kansas and Texas and from the very states and counties where LGBTQ representation is least expected,” Torres told us. “That to me is the true value of representation.”

The House is poised to welcome at least a few new LGBTQ members next year, greatly expanding the community’s representation in Congress. We recently wrote about the record number of LGBTQ women running this cycle.

The Equality PAC gave Texas state Rep. Julie Johnson $610,000 for her campaign in the open 32nd District seat, Washington state Sen. Emily Randall $983,000 in the 6th District and Delaware state Sen. Sarah McBride $365,000. They also gave $1.2 million to Evan Low, who is running in an open California seat (16th District), $375,000 to Mondaire Jones, who is challenging Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) in a competitive race and $630,000 to Will Rollins. Rollins is running against Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Calif.) in the close 41st District race.

For incumbents, the Equality PAC funneled $190,000 to Rep. Angie Craig (D-Minn.), $162,000 to Rep. Eric Sorensen (D-Ill.) and $171,000 to Rep. Chris Pappas (D-N.H.). They also gave $178,000 to Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.), who is facing an increasingly competitive challenge against Republican Eric Hovde.

While the PAC can endorse Republicans, it has traditionally supported Democrats.

Legislative agenda: Takano and Torres both noted passage of the Equality Act as the number one priority for them if Democrats take control of the House. The bill would amend the Civil Rights Act of 1964 to expand protections for LGBTQ individuals.

Takano, the top Democrat on the Veterans’ Affairs Committee, added that he wants to upgrade discharges and increase access to benefits for LGBTQ veterans affected by “don’t ask, don’t tell.”

Additionally, the California Democrat said he wants Congress to focus on a foreign policy agenda that enhances LGBTQ rights around the world.

“We continue to be concerned about LGBTQ rights globally,” Takano told us.

Meanwhile, Republicans have targeted Democrats in tough seats this cycle with anti-transgender ads. House Republicans have also pushed a series of anti-LGBTQ riders in must-pass legislation this Congress.

– Mica Soellner

THE CAMPAIGN

News: DemocracyFIRST PAC and Defend The Vote have a new ad up in Wisconsin, reminding voters that Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Wis.) cursed out a group of Senate pages late one night in the Capitol — a story Punchbowl News broke. The ad is part of a $700,000 buy on TV in LaCrosse and Wausau, in addition to digital and streaming platforms.

First in Punchbowl News: In an ad backing Democrat Will Rollins, a retired brigadier general attacks Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Calif.) as a corrupt politician who doesn’t back veterans.

BOLD PAC investment: The campaign arm of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus is investing $833,000 in bilingual ads attacking Matt Gunderson, who’s challenging Rep. Mike Levin (D-Calif.), and Gabe Evans, who’s challenging Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D-Colo.). Both ads focus on abortion rights.

New Dems endorsements: The New Dem Action Fund is endorsing Jonathan Nez in Arizona’s 2nd District, Adam Frisch in Colorado’s 3rd District, Peter Barca in Wisconsin’s 1st District, Wesley Bell in Missouri’s 1st District, George Latimer in New York’s 16th District and Nellie Pou in New Jersey’s 9th District.

More news: Business Leaders for Harris is adding Home Depot co-founder Arthur Blank to its ranks, along with former Rep. John Delaney (D-Md.).

— Max Cohen

MOMENTS

CLIPS