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Happy Friday morning. There are 11 days until Election Day.

We wanted to focus today on House Democratic Caucus Chair Hakeem Jeffries and his quest to become the next Democratic leader.

We can’t write about House Democrats without this disclaimer: Speaker Nancy Pelosi, 82, hasn’t said whether she will be retiring after this Congress. Pelosi and her staff say she’s on a mission not a shift. Got that?

We also can’t discuss who will be the next House Democratic leader without mentioning that Steny Hoyer, 83, has been the loyal No. 2 to Pelosi for 20 years. Hoyer has made abundantly clear that he isn’t abiding by Pelosi’s timeline to leave Congress – whatever that is. We’ll look at Hoyer’s future in more detail next week. House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn, 82, is the No. 3 Democrat. He also hasn’t announced whether he’ll stay in Congress or in leadership should his party lose control of the chamber.

These caveats should keep everyone in the leadership calm. We aren’t accepting complaints this morning, guys.

Jeffries, 52, is the No. 5 House Democrat. He represents an overwhelmingly Democratic district in Brooklyn that President Joe Biden won by 53 points. Jeffries has a master’s degree in public policy from Georgetown University and a law degree from NYU. He served six years in the New York State Assembly before being elected to Congress in 2012.

Strengths

There are a few undeniable facts about the House Democratic Caucus. One of them is that the membership is yearning for fresh faces in the upper ranks. Jeffries is as fresh as they come. He’s 30 years younger than Pelosi, Hoyer or Clyburn. And with that in mind, he’s among the best positioned to make a run at the top spot should Democrats lose the House.

As we’ve emphasized in examining the Republican candidates for leadership, one of the keys in getting the top jobs is having a base of support from which to draw. Jeffries has that. The Congressional Black Caucus is the most powerful bloc in the House Democratic Caucus with more than 50 votes. If they back Jeffries – a former CBC whip – he should have the inside track for the top Democratic post.

Should the New York Democrat become minority leader, it’s as historic as Pelosi taking the top slot. No person of color has ever been head of any party caucus in the House or Senate. Don’t underestimate the appeal of this in a caucus looking for change.

Jeffries is also a favorite of newly elected Democrats. He understands where they’re coming from and has bolstered relationships through his work as Democratic Caucus chair. This is something several veteran members privately said Jeffries needed to work on when he took over the position four years ago.

As a legislator, Jeffries has some key wins. He’s backed bipartisan legislation in criminal justice reform, as well as efforts to reduce disparities in sentences for drug crimes. Jeffries has pushed legislation tailored at communities in his diverse districts, as well as seeking billions of dollars in support for the New York City bus and subway systems during the pandemic.

Weaknesses

House Democrats have been led by the same two members – Pelosi and Hoyer – for the last 20 years. Clyburn has been the No. 3 Democrat for more than 15 years. Most House Democrats have never served under another leadership team. There’s a wing of the caucus that’s hesitant to move ahead with a wholesale leadership change and put new lawmakers in charge. This argument could grow louder if Democrats lose the House by only a handful of votes, with a real chance at taking back the majority in 2024.

We also hear grumbling from members about Jeffries being from New York. With Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer hailing from the Empire State as well, some Democrats have said they want to see more geographic diversity in their leadership.

And finally, there’s a question of whether Jeffries has the full infrastructure — whip team and staff — in place to successfully run a leadership race. Jeffries’ supporters insist he does, and they don’t need to talk about it publicly. Team Jeffries also tells us their focus right now is on holding the House and helping Democrats win seats in New York.

But there have been questions about Jeffries’ preparedness to win a race from some Democratic lawmakers and aides in recent weeks, as Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) has been much more public about his potential leadership plans.

Also, consider this question: With a Democrat in the White House, Jeffries will be forced to work with Republicans such as House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy to fund the government, lift the debt limit and execute on other legislative priorities. Who is better equipped to do that, Jeffries or Hoyer? Or someone else?

Opportunities

Jeffries is term-limited in his caucus chair position, so he, more than other senior House Democrats, could feel pressure to push for another leadership position. He’s long been deemed the Pelosi successor in the eyes of many in the caucus and oftentimes, perception is reality.

In many ways, Jeffries has proven himself already. With his weekly press conference as caucus chair, Jeffries has shown other Democrats he can stay on message and still offer forceful criticisms of former President Donald Trump and Republicans. Jeffries has also shown he isn’t afraid to spar publicly with McCarthy, likely the next speaker if Republicans take back the House.

Threats

Hoyer, as we mentioned above, is in no hurry to vacate his leadership post and has long wished for the top job. The Maryland Democrat could pitch himself as a “bridge” to the next generation – a steady hand who won’t lead the caucus forever but can oversee the transition to a new crop of leaders.

Clyburn hasn’t revealed his post-election plans and we still don’t know what he’ll do if Democrats lose their majority. The South Carolina Democrat could run for the top leadership spot if Pelosi leaves – or he could be happy to serve in some sort of “emeritus” role, according to multiple lawmakers. If Clyburn runs for leader, it’s unclear if Jeffries would also run. The CBC will want to unite around one candidate – and Jeffries challenging Clyburn, the most prominent Black lawmaker, could backfire.

Then there’s Schiff. As we reported Thursday, Schiff still hasn’t made a decision about whether to run for leadership. But if he does, Schiff has made clear he would seek the top post in a post-Pelosi world, putting him in a head-to-head match with Jeffries.

By the numbers

→	Jeffries has given $1.35 million to the DCCC.

→	Jeffries has a new letter asking for lawmakers to step up their dues. Hoyer and Pelosi have done this, as well. In the letter, Jeffries says he’s “contributed another $250,000 to the DCCC, bringing my total to $1,350,000 for the cycle – $775,000 over my dues goal.”

→	Jeffries will spend the homestretch of the campaign in Oregon, Nevada and New York. This follows recent campaign stops in Virginia, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Colorado and Indiana to stump for House Democratic incumbents and candidates.

– Jake Sherman and Heather Caygle

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